Daniel Ward, CFA

biotech investor // former prop trader on the Street // based in the Music City // personal thoughts, not investment advice

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

(2/3) Key factors:

✅Strong balance sheet
✅Solid cash runway
✅Clean capital structure
✅Pipeline potential / newsflow
✅Low MC / float

Why focus on stocks with low MCs? Larger investors with more resources ignore them, leaving opportunity for significant outperformance.

[Trevor Scott @TidefallCapital]

"Small-cap and midcap biotech stocks recently traded at an enterprise-value to cash ratio of 1.2x. Historically, this group trades at three times cash. “Biotech looks inexpensive at these levels”. - Jefferies

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@Clem69464530 Not surprised to hear that - have to tread carefully for sure!

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@KaczynskiTrades I do not! Just a reader of posts and not posting at this point.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

$AEZS $CRPOF Merger News Commentary

-I’m still digesting.
-The stock trading <2% of shares and closing flat shows the market’s low enthusiasm.
-The board overlap between AEZS and CRPOF creates questions.
-If I vote no, I am fairly confident shareholders can reject merger.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@BiotechXGuru I've told them I plan to vote no based on the available information. I've also told them that I expect my vote and vote of those I know will be sufficient to decide the outcome of the vote.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@BiotechXGuru I like NURO. If had to be PULM or AEZS, then I’d do AEZS.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

Bought more $REVB ~1.08-1.09.

Current holdings:
~2.0%-2.5% $AEZS
~0.5%-1.0% $REVB
<0.5% $ARTL
<0.5% $NVIV
<0.5% $PULM

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@BiotechXGuru Definitely would think they could manage that, yes

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@BiotechXGuru Don’t have answers to all of those question at the moment. If the merger doesn’t go through, they’ll need to continue to operate the business.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@BiotechXGuru The money is not gone. AEZS itself has plenty there. Pending more information, I’ll vote no and will recommend that other shareholders I know vote no. Based on that, this merger isn’t going to go through.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@ValueTrader101 Yes I plan to vote No as of now

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@ShipSeven Probably too diversified at this point. Hard to break down what's actually there.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

(1/3) Portfolio update. Decided to exit $CYTO today. Looks like additional shares coming for loan payback. I sat through decline of >50% in CYTO, all to exit for a loss of ~7%-8%. That’s an okay result for taking a big gamble. Entry average of $4.93 and exit average $4.56.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

Next Steps on $AEZS
-I will to continue to evaluate the news.
-I think AEZS is ripe for an activist.
-Is return of capital to shareholders a better option for shareholders?
-I am keeping my options open as I learn more about this merger opportunity and other options that exist.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@dcsf08 I've had some wins and losses. AEZS obviously had been poor. Had a good win on ARTL, though.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@ValueTrader101 @BioStocks Doesn’t seem like an optimal use of shareholder capital, but stock is flat as already so cheap as it is. I’d rather they close up shop and distribute cash to shareholders. We need an activist.

[Jacob Plieth @JacobPlieth]

Some ADC stocks riding on $ABBV $IMGN

$MRSN +22%
$STRO +22% (LOL)
$ADCT +16%
$CRBP +9%
$MRUS +7%
$CTMX +7%
$ZYME +6%

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@ValueTrader101 @DiekstraCapital Haven’t run the exact numbers, but believe its been market perform for the past month or so; given that, I don’t really mind low volume. Now, of course, crappy performance prior to the past month is the problem.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

After exiting $ARTL $3.30-$3.40 after hours yesterday, reinvested back into $ARTL $1.85-$1.90 after hours today. Thank you sellers for the opportunity. Glad to be back invested in the business.

[BioPharma Dive @BioPharmaDive]

Freeline, after cuts, agrees to take-private deal with Syncona https://t.co/Hq2kN1YbTJ $FRLN by @NedPagliarulo

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@DiekstraCapital ART27.13 in Phase 2 and other assets in preclinical. Not bad for something trading at 0.3x book. It's trading at that level as people are skeptical at this point. We'll have to see and that may take some time.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@DiekstraCapital Well, they have an approved drug and are in Phase 3 for indication expansion with that asset. Pipeline is early stage otherwise. Like you said, business currently trades 0.3x book value or so.

[Daniel Ward, CFA @danwardbio]

@DiekstraCapital I do not have any insight. Offer is at 1.60 now so seems to be acting decently today.