🌎⚽ https://t.co/3T4vhPT4HI World Cup Edition is now live and FREE for the entire tournament.
Due to limited international data, some tools and pages have been removed.
Please take these early friendlies lightly as the simulator continues to be tuned throughout the World Cup.
Let’s enjoy the football. 🍻⚽
True but then for example Croatia’s last 3 “competive” games were against Montenegro, Faroe Islands and Gibraltar.
If I scratch that and just go to last competive tournament it’s probably a whole different squad or possibly manager. Just not enough reliable historical matches to look at.
Data is simply not as relevant for international football as it is for club football.
(My opinion)
These tournaments are often more about how good you are as a bettor than how good your analytics are.
🎯 Shots on target matter.
That sounds obvious, but after digging through the data, SOT appears to be a stronger indicator for goals than total shots, big chances, and in many cases even xG.
This table compares the 10 highest Shots on Target matches and the 10 highest Shot matches from each league.
The difference is pretty clear.
For example, in the Premier League:
• Top 10 SOT matches: Over 2.5 = 100%, BTTS = 100%, Avg goals 4.7
• Top 10 Shot matches: Over 2.5 = 50%, BTTS = 60%, Avg goals 2.8
🇳🇱 Netherlands vs 🇩🇿 Algeria
The simulator gives BTTS Yes a 56% probability (1.79 fair odds) while Bet365 is offering 1.91.
Projected score: Netherlands 2.12 - 1.00 Algeria
Top 5 pace teams from both Euro 2024 & Copa 2024.
7 of the top 10 will be playing in the 2026 World Cup, led by Croatia, Czech Republic, Türkiye, Brazil, Paraguay, Mexico and Argentina.