DataGaffer

— Advanced football analytics platform for bettors. 10,000-run simulations, player models, insights & tools to find value 📊

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

🌎⚽ https://t.co/3T4vhPT4HI World Cup Edition is now live and FREE for the entire tournament.

Due to limited international data, some tools and pages have been removed.

Please take these early friendlies lightly as the simulator continues to be tuned throughout the World Cup.

Let’s enjoy the football. 🍻⚽

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@chavozik4 Been playing this game for 2 hours, multiple 91 overall teams and not one 7-0. Yet I’m seeing people go 7-0 with 85 overalls.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

True but then for example Croatia’s last 3 “competive” games were against Montenegro, Faroe Islands and Gibraltar.

If I scratch that and just go to last competive tournament it’s probably a whole different squad or possibly manager. Just not enough reliable historical matches to look at.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Data is simply not as relevant for international football as it is for club football.

(My opinion)

These tournaments are often more about how good you are as a bettor than how good your analytics are.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Top 5 BTTS and Over 2.5 teams from the 2022 World Cup 🌎

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@NeilMac555 @WillWhiteBets @MarkOHaire @touchesinthebox @Bet_On_Value @KgYips @JAKEOZZ @sk_football1907 @BurryVE1 @PoissonCapital @fmeetsdata @ace17betting Thanks man really appreciate itl 🤝🍻

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@Tony_Beam1 Our simulator handles that 👍

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

🎯 Shots on target matter.

That sounds obvious, but after digging through the data, SOT appears to be a stronger indicator for goals than total shots, big chances, and in many cases even xG.

This table compares the 10 highest Shots on Target matches and the 10 highest Shot matches from each league.

The difference is pretty clear.

For example, in the Premier League:

• Top 10 SOT matches: Over 2.5 = 100%, BTTS = 100%, Avg goals 4.7
• Top 10 Shot matches: Over 2.5 = 50%, BTTS = 60%, Avg goals 2.8

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@bttsmatt Yeah that’s something I’m looking to get with my api

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Top 30 highest scoring matches from the 2025/26 season. Surprisingly Ligue 1 shows up the most with 6 matches.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@turkomatik Yes but you can just look at our pace scores for each match that basically combines a bunch of goal data rather then just simply SOT.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@Rujie21 I agree but it might make people in this country open there eyes and respect the game a bit more

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

🇳🇱 Netherlands vs 🇩🇿 Algeria

The simulator gives BTTS Yes a 56% probability (1.79 fair odds) while Bet365 is offering 1.91.

Projected score: Netherlands 2.12 - 1.00 Algeria

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@Rujie21 Yeah data’s kinda irrelevant for international matches. It’s like 90% passion/vibes and then some team stats

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@Rujie21 Friendlies are the books goldmines.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Top 5 pace teams from both Euro 2024 & Copa 2024.

7 of the top 10 will be playing in the 2026 World Cup, led by Croatia, Czech Republic, Türkiye, Brazil, Paraguay, Mexico and Argentina.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Croatia doesn’t have one guy over 40 pace

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

@JesseBarros15 Thank you🙏 and you know for sure they will be closed every game

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Does anyone know for sure which stadiums will have there roof closed for the World Cup.

I’m looking to add some weather data which could be useful.

[DataGaffer @datagaffer]

Projected Goals 📊

Today’s highest projected goal totals:

🇧🇪 Gent vs Genk — 3.54
🇪🇸 Santander vs Cadiz — 3.23
🇸🇪 BK Häcken vs Hammarby — 3.05
🇪🇸 Cordoba vs Huesca — 2.97
🇪🇸 Almeria vs Valladolid — 2.91