DataGut 717

🚨Official🚨 Twitter page of the DataGut 717 college football gambling model and the 717 Syndicate. All things college football. 61% Accuracy on 2024 Win Totals

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

The stats are in— DataGut717 outperforms the consensus more than any other model.

Profitable every year.

Win total prediction accuracy of 61%

… and like an old sage on the mountaintop, the highest “Wisdom Index”

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

#38 for TCU just holding AND pass interference on EVERY SINGLE PLAY.

As I’ve said… some games it pays to just do it every play and dare the refs to throw flags every play. They won’t.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

@DylanEveryday @NotTheeWillHill is the guy you’re looking for

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

@NotTheeWillHill thinks Ryan Day will be making his play calling debut vs Miami.

Sheesh… how did we even enjoy college football without this kinda of deep analysis

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

Can we just start the @Cover3Podcast reaction show now?

[JMU Sports News @JMUSportsNews]

“We wouldn’t want to watch Triple-A teams in the playoff! Only the highest quality ball allowed here!”

[Chris Vannini @ChrisVannini]

Alabama’s got roses and “Going back to Cali” blares from the locker room.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

@ReeseClarett13 did this as an offensive player (also national championship game) against an all time great.

So…. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

Woof— he’s talking about Julian Sayin

[BongoBlue 🏆 🏀 @Blue2Bongo]

@stafford614 @tyler99014307 @CFBNerds Zip, velocity, how hard it looks when he needs to put spit on it, how the ball floats on deep passes. He’s shown nice accuracy in the short game, but don’t expect him to rip one 15-20 yards over the the middle of the field or go opposite hash

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

Actually hilarious— it doesn’t matter if they beat ND and then lose because they’ll be left out.

Pitt has to win conference games. So does (almost) everyone else.

[On3 @On3]

NEW: Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi on whether Notre Dame game is a ‘must-win’:

“Absolutely not, It is not an ACC game. I’m glad you brought that up. It’s not an ACC game. I’d gladly get beat 103 or 110-10 in that game. They could put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two after that.”

(via @tbhorka)

https://t.co/nSP1CIpetm

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

I agree that Jeremiah Smith is the best WR in the country, but just because he looks like the best WR in the country doesn’t mean he’s the best WR in the country.

[Zane Rowland @Coach_Rowland_]

@KristopherDrew_ I agree with the argument that he is throwing to the best player in CFB, so there’s an asterisk to it. But just because he is the most well put together athlete that we’ve probably ever seen, does not mean he is the best player in the country right now.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

The OP clearly lists the Oregon game… and this a top comment.

X everyone.

[Oregon/BBQ/USA @BBQDuck35]

@Joel_Haas1 Why didn’t you put his completion percentage against Oregon? Oh, because it was 55%.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

How bout that referee!?

[Woody @woodyVSworld]

Ohio State commit Legend Bey is a playmaker

Runs a 10.23 100 meter

[Bill Radjewski | CollegeFootballData.com @CFB_Data]

💨 QB Efficiency Leaders (through Week 11) 💨

Here are the Top 15 QBs in opponent-adjusted EPA per dropback, the ones generating the most value every time they throw.

🔥 Ohio State’s Julian Sayin jumps to the top spot
⚡ USC’s Jayden Maiava right on his heels

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

These guys….

[College Football Nerds @CFBNerds]

@jrs_rankings Ole Miss has a better resume. Oregon has yet to show on the field they even deserve the ranking they have

Id love for you to actually compare resumes.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

Chief Joseph famously said: “it does not require many words to speak the truth”

[College Football Nerds @CFBNerds]

Since we keep getting hammered with mentions about Sayin, here's where we stand with him:
- Sayin is one of the best QBs in recent memory within 20 yards. The speed of his release is uniquely good, and his placement is elite. We've always maintained this.
- The thing we questioned early on was whether Ohio State would have an effective deep ball. At the time OSU was 98th in throws of 20+ yards. That hasn't changed a ton, as they went into today 91st in that statistic.
- But, Ohio State really came on starting with the Minnesota game with deep throws. They had thrown 10 passes going into today of 40+ yards, which was 7th nationally.
- The complication is about depth. Ohio State had only thrown 11 passes between 20-40 yards coming into today. That's only one more than Auburn, or two more than Wisconsin, and tied for 120th nationally.
- Alabama has thrown 28 passes of 20-40 yards (11th nationally) but just 5 of 40+ yards (65th nationally), so a completely different profile.
- Today continued that trend, as Ohio State hit 3 more 40+ yard passes, but only 1 pass between 20-40 yards.
- Ultimately the OSU passing game is a combination of tons of elite throws underneath 20 yards, and a high volume of shots over coverage with lots of air to their elite WRs (which Day has said is intentional), with very few throws attacking seams at or underneath safety depth.
- This may be a sustainable, high-level passing attack. The ultra high efficiency in short passes certainly seems something that can scale. And Alabama would kill for Ohio State's efficiency level when they take shots over deep coverage.
- The one thing that remains open is the question of whether Ohio State can maintain a deep passing game if/when they play a defense who can rush the passer and play coverage sufficient to prevent throws beyond coverage. This may be something they don't even need to do, especially with Tate and Smith whipping DBs.
- Regardless, this is all very much nitpicking a QB who is ultra-efficient otherwise. But it's a very similar passing profile to Bo Nix two years ago (same QB Rating and same yards/attempt) and he encountered scaling issues to end the year. When evaluating playoff games vs top-10 defenses, it's at least an open concern.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

The only reason I pay for live tv via @YouTubeTV is to watch college football. The cost goes up every single year and I deal with it, but if you aren’t gonna provide espn/abc during CFB season - that’s a deal breaker.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

@tonesetter10 @PlayedNobody @BuckeyeNatty Oh yes it does— that’s why you’re so engaged.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

Can’t wait for Ohio State to play Preseason #2 after beating Preseason #1.

[SEC Numbers Guy @secnumbersguy]

Alabama knocks off preseason #13 South Carolina to continue rolling!

No one is hotter than the Crimson Tide.

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

This might be a really simple question, but is there a master list of >50% post game win expectancy records?

[Bill Connelly @ESPN_BillC]

LOWEST POSTGAME WIN EXPECTANCY IN A WIN, WEEK 9:

Delaware > MTSU 32.3%
BYU > Iowa St 37.7%
Akron > Buffalo 39.2%
Auburn > Arkansas 39.5%
UVA > UNC 43.8%
Memphis > USF 46.2%
Ole Miss > OU 53.0%
WKU > LT 53.5%
Texas > MSU 54.0%

Semi-normal week? Full list: https://t.co/yQtdgyQGgz

[DataGut 717 @DataGut717]

@tierani_kristen It is a thing. Didn’t see play, but it is a thing.