Freier Journalist | Team GKD Leipzig | Jakob will im Lotto gewinnen. 3 Wo betet er. Nichts. Er flucht. Der Himmel öffnet sich. Gott: „Kauf‘ endlich ein Los.“
Gali Levin ist eine erfahrene Psychotherapeutin, die seit vielen Jahren Opfer sexueller Gewalt betreut. Doch das Ausmaß der sexuellen Gewalt, die Hamas am 7. Oktober an israelischen Frauen verübte, übersteigt alles, was sie jemals zuvor gehört hat. #October7massacre
Ahead of the Islamabad Talks
A. Negotiations will be difficult. However, it’s important to recognize that this time the administration is bringing in Vice President Vance, who has a clear political interest in preventing a renewed escalation. Beyond domestic politics, Washington is acutely aware of the consequences of a breakdown: a major shock to global energy markets and highly problematic military options, ranging from strikes on civilian infrastructure to the risks of ground operations. In other words, both political incentives and strategic risks are pushing the U.S. toward avoiding collapse of the talks.
B. The gaps between the parties remain significant. Iran’s leadership is unlikely to concede on its missile program, and certainly not on its right to enrich uranium. In any scenario involving full sanctions relief, the issue of the 60% 440 kg enriched uranium stockpile will likely become a central sticking point.
C. The Strait of Hormuz issue is largely behind us. By effectively acknowledging Iran’s control over the strait, the U.S. has helped solidify this reality. Iran can already begin to reap the associated economic benefits. However, any expectation in Washington that Tehran will make concessions on force buildup or strategic capabilities is likely misplaced.
D. While the current ceasefire is temporary, the costs of the war and, critically, the growing recognition in Washington that regime change is not achievable and that enriched uranium cannot be eliminated through military means, may soften the U.S. negotiating position. Unlike previous rounds (e.g., Geneva), the administration’s ability to credibly threaten war has diminished. From Tehran’s perspective, they have already endured the worst.
E. Iran’s economic situation is dire, worse than before the war. Economic relief is therefore a critical priority for Tehran. That said, it is doubtful that Iran would trade core regime pillars for economic concessions
F. One of Iran’s most significant achievements, especially given that it stepped back from insisting on a permanent ceasefire (assuming there are no undisclosed understandings about extending the truce or U.S. recognition of its right to enrich), is the apparent U.S. willingness to engage in negotiations based on Iran’s 10-point framework.
G. This is notable because the gap between Iran’s 10 points and the administration’s 15-point framework remains substantial. The central question is whether Washington is prepared to move closer to Tehran’s positions, particularly on uranium enrichment and missile capabilities. These issues will be decisive not only for the negotiations, but for whether the conflict resumes.
H. Who Really Wants the Deal?
It is important to recognize that the push for negotiations originated in Washington. In practice, it was the Trump administration that shaped, if not dictated, the proposal conveyed via Pakistan for a two-week ceasefire. This matters because it suggests that the administration is entering the talks with a strong desire to reach an agreement quickly.
I. That does not mean Iran lacks interest, far from it, given its economic situation, but the sense of urgency appears to be more pronounced on the U.S. side
The bottom line is that current negotiations are not driven by optimism, but by a shared interest in avoiding further losses rather than securing victory.
#IranWar
Dezember 2024: Sechs bis acht vermummte #Neonazis greifen in #Görlitz eine Gruppe von Linken mit Bengalos, Schlägen und Tritten an. Zwei Frauen und ein Mann werden verletzt.
Jetzt stehen drei junge Neonazis vor Gericht. Darunter auch Finley P. - der Kopf der „Elblandrevolte“.
In 2019, @datt_thomas, Jonathan Schörnig & @TilleyMarc proved a Ministerial-level conspiracy to erase the memory of assassinated journalist #DaphneCaruanaGalizia. Today, @neville_gafa continues this shameful legacy on behalf of his implicated cabal of powerful friends in #Malta.
Netanjahu war vor den angstvollen, spontan demonstrierenden Familien der Geiseln geflüchtet. Einav protestierte Tag und Nacht weiter. Aus der einstigen Netanjahu-Anhängerin war seine schärfste Kritikerin geworden. Heute konnte sie ihren Sohn Matan wieder in die Arme nehmen.
Sie lächelt wieder, ihr Sohn Matan ist nach 738 aus der Geiselhaft der Hamas zurück.
Alles schien verloren, als Einav Zangauker vorigen Monat schreiend vor dem Jerusalemer Haus von Netanjahu stand. Es war Nacht, die Armee hatte gerade die Offensive gegen Gaza-Stadt gestartet.
@OERRBlog Wenn Sie den Beitrag nur gesehen hätten: Cindy Reiner wird 2x interviewt: Einmal als Bündnissprecherin, da war sie für die Linken noch nicht aktiv. Beim zweiten Termin wird ihr zu dem Zeitpunkt neues Engagement für die Linke im Sprechertext benannt und von ihr im O-Ton erklärt.
🧵Scoop: The US proposal for ending the war in Gaza encourages Palestinians to remain in the Strip and provides for the creation of a pathway to a future Palestinian state, according to a copy of the plan obtained by The Times of Israel. (1/32) https://t.co/e4WCH6LgWC
"The Israeli army confirmed the existence of the database, which is managed by the Military Intelligence Directorate (known by the Hebrew acronym 'Aman'). Multiple intelligence sources familiar with the database said the army views it as the only authoritative tally of militant casualty figures. In the words of one of them: 'There’s no other place to check.'"
Today marks the first Yahrzeit (Hebrew date of death) for the Beautiful Six- young, vibrant souls kidnapped to Gaza, and visciously murdered in a tunnel in Rafah.
🕯 Hersh Goldberg-Polin, 23
🕯 Almog Sarusi, 27
🕯 Eden Yerushalmi, 24
🕯 Alex Lobanov, 33
🕯 Carmel Gat, 40
🕯 Ori Danino, 25
May your memories forever be blessed, and may they bring a revolution 🎗️
@DrKissler Abstammung birgt welches Argument? Offenbar kennt sich die junge Frau, die 2021 zur Ausbildung nach Thüringen zog, in der Region und bei Wein ziemlich gut aus. Aber beim Ressentiment kommt es ja nicht auf Schlüssigkeit an, sondern auf das Zelebrieren negativer Emotionen.
@storm_steel Das ist nicht das Thema, es geht hier um einen aktuellen Angriff auf die Pressefreiheit und das Verhalten der Polizei. Dass Neonazis Pressefreiheit ablehnen, liegt in der Logik ihres Denkens und ist von ihren historischen Vorbildern mehr als bewiesen worden.