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Retraites : « On ne pourra pas indéfiniment demander aux actifs de payer la facture démographique du vieillissement »
Pour l’économiste Maxime Sbaihi, il ne faut pas se priver de jouer sur le niveau des pensions pour équilibrer le système
Interview ➡️ https://t.co/eyQbeMDAmE
Not "since collapsed."
Take the case of France for example. In 1981, when young voters (baby boomers at the time) helped secure the election of François Mitterrand, who promised to lower the retirement age from 65 to 60, the number of kids had already fallen below replacement rate. In fact, it remained at these levels until quite recently.
It was perfectly clear and understood by planners at the time that this would cause a massive problem in the mid 2000 when the first cohorts of the baby boomers would reach the age of 60.
Someone like the famous demographer Alfred Sauvy not only predicted 25 years in advance that the situation would quickly deteriorate but also that it would be extremely hard to correct the trajectory because of the electoral weight of these cohorts.
Something that Sauvy predicted but hasn’t happened yet was a revolt of the youth against the baby boomers’ requests. It didn’t happen simply because young voters do not understand the dynamics and budget constraints of PAYG systems and believe that protecting the claims of their parents and grand parents will protect their own. As if there was a secret infinite source of funding.
While young Americans also complain about boomers, they don’t realize that in the US the Greenspan commission in the early 80s greatly protected them by doing the opposite of what Mitterrand did in France. It decided back in the 1980s that baby boomers would retire a bit later and increased their contribution rate such that Social Security could build reserves to fund their pension later.
🧵 China’s population collapse is now mathematically irreversible.
There simply aren’t enough women left of childbearing age.
Even if the fertility rate magically returned to replacement level (2.1 children per woman) tomorrow, the country would still lose more than 40% of its population by 2100.
It won't. The real number is 75%. There's nothing like it in history. 🧵
À compter du 1er septembre, les transports en commun seront gratuits pour les seniors de plus de 65 ans.
Cette mesure concrète en faveur du pouvoir d’achat permettra à nos aînés de se déplacer plus facilement, de préserver leur autonomie et de participer pleinement à la vie de notre territoire.
Mais déni absolu sur le financement des retraites. Nos enfants vont trimer comme des chiens sans ne rien pouvoir mettre de côté. Nous sacrifions nos enfants par déni et lâcheté.
C'est nécessaire, mais il va du coup falloir baisser les retraites.
On ne peut pas dire aux jeunes qu'ils vont devoir travailler jusqu'à 68 ans pour payer la retraite de gens partis à 60 ans et qui ont un meilleur niveau de vie sans travailler.
@LorianeLafont@GDarmanin Imaginons in instant : quelqu'un, un magistrat, a vraiment merdé, commis une ou plusieurs erreurs gravissime. Il ne doit rien lui arriver ? Sous prétexte que vous n'aimez pas Darmanin