David Lee GP

Commodity Trader (Power & Emissions)

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

#EUETS #EUA Fundamentals

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

#EUETS #EUA 🧸

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

#EUETS The industrial recovery story behind the recent rally is clearly not able to stand it foot.

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@WlGawronski when mkt re-focus on fundamentals again, the plunge can be quite impressive as well...

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@Emericdevigan where will you be discussing this? any link (:

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

DE-FR power price premium for May and Jun are now at an all-time high, likely due to lower Net Transfer Capacity from early March. Do you think such high premium can sustain or will get narrow/normalise nearing to delivery months? #PowerTrading #EUETS #EDF @Emericdevigan

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@Emericdevigan looking forward!

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@RauxJF @Emericdevigan What timeframe u are referring to?

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Low demand, rock-bottom prices, yet reservoir hydro generation remains robust. Is it time to clear space in reservoirs for the upcoming snowmelt in a high renewable/low demand era?

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

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[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Les centrales gaz et charbon en Allemagne tournent peu cet hiver, et ceci malgré une production renouvelable plutôt moyenne.
La cause : la demande est détruite, surtout côté industriel, et les imports (de nucléaire français) sont en hausse

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

2025 est encore un peu haut, à 72 €, mais avec 2026 autour de 64 €/on va peut etre pouvoir s'offrir un peu d'électrification et voir la conso rebondir.
Et malheureusement voir resurgir les problème de rentabilité des actifs et de signal d'investissement.
Equation insoluble ?

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Chez @kpler, on prend du temps pour ajuster la consommation à la météo, et ainsi estimer la destruction structurelle de demande. Mais les hivers de plus en plus 'cléments', ne sont-ils pas devenus la norme? Peut-être est-il temps de revoir nos fameuses 'normales de saison'?

[Emeric de Vigan @Emericdevigan]

Power prices are dropping, yes.
But watch out! It's the clean spark spreads that reveal the real story.
The demand destruction trap is tightening its grip on electricity producers.

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@CarbonReporter #EUAPredict 85.58

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@Emericdevigan Will the down trend continue?

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@GoldbergNic @Emericdevigan What's your view?

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

From utility hedging perspective, dark spreads for both Y1&Y2 are getting more competitive than spark spreads, providing some support for EUAs.
#EUETS #EUA

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@SebastianLizak1 what's your latest view on price?

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

@ChetJPatel supply - demand, for which demand mainly project power sector, I maintain no change for industrials. power sector mainly based on total power demand based on 10y avg tempt, and gas% + coal% assumptions (each have diff co2 intensity), which is derived assuming 10y avg wind output.

[David Lee GP @davidgaopeng]

Projection of EUA balance sheet suggests weekly deficit could emerge from mid-Nov onwards, even with 10-year average temperature and wind output #EUETS #EUA