Ben Thompson on the two things Silicon Valley relearns every 10 years:
1) "Consumers do not want to pay for software"
2) "Consumers do not care about being productive"
"If you're going to be in the consumer market, you have to be doing advertising.
We went through this in early SaaS. The canonical company for this is Dropbox.
They had to rebuild the whole thing and realize the only way we're going to make money is by selling to companies.
You literally had OpenAI replaying the Dropbox story, but at like 100x the size.
We're going to sell subscriptions to consumers. And they did. They sold a lot, but they didn't sell enough.
If they had leaned into advertising immediately, as soon as ChatGPT was a hit, I think they would have a great ad product right now.
Charging people money is hard. Giving people things for free is easy."
This market is so weak. Selling Google after a blockbuster report. Selling Meta because of a deliberate one time EPS miss and faster than expected organic growth. Microsoft barely up 3% and still down 17% this year after an amazing report. Everyone racing for the exits because these companies are spending on capex to massively expand.
Investors selling today don't deserve these companies. And they will get the price they deserve, much higher, when they want to buy back in years later.
"The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights. You're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime—when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple."
— Charlie Munger
I have been building positions in all but one of these names as well — I like to think “if I couldn’t touch this investment for ten years, would I make it?��
Which is the same question every VC makes when they place a bet — even if they don’t recognize it.
“I have no schedule so to speak of. I get up at 6 in the morning but I may get to the office by 8 or 9 am”
“My date book is not jam packed with appointments. I decided this life when I was delivering newspapers.”
“I knew what I enjoyed and I have no ambition of going ahead of IBM or General Motors.”
- Warren Buffett. 2006.
Chris Hohn on what makes a good investor.
"I was always willing to look at the company fundamentals and not try to guess the stock market. I was always fundamental."
"Most investors are not fundamental. They trade actively. They look at data points. They say, 'What's the catalyst?' They don't really know what the company does."
"Long-termism is key."
Druckenmiller and Bessent wanted to bet $3 billion against the Bank of England - Soros said that's not enough and pushed it to $10 billion
they showed how exactly that day unfolded - two traders made $1 billion in one day
two men who trained the current US Treasury Secretary - in one video that nobody has seen
they shorted the British pound until the Bank of England ran out of money defending it - $6 billion gone in one day
then Druckenmiller left - and went 30 years without a single losing year
Bessent and Soros stayed together - 20 years later they crushed the Japanese economy
this documentary will change how you think about risk forever
bookmark & watch today ↓
Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI will officially begin on June 25 on digital storefronts and at other select retailers.
Check out the official cover art, also available as downloadable artwork at https://t.co/XPwC8URCQ4