David Kanevsky

Data dork, @RSLC, @NRSC alum, McCaniac, @GWAlumni, @washcaps fan. Wannabe @SmashingPumpkin Roadie. Not authorized by any candidate/candidate committee

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

Introduce yourself with 10 bands you’ve seen live:
1 - The Smashing Pumpkins
2 - Zwan
3 - Billy Corgan
4 - Skysaw
5 - Spirits in the Sky
6 - Papa M
7 - Rush
8 - David Bowie
9 - Britney Spears
10 - Gwar

[Robert A. George @RobGeorge]

Introduce yourself with 10 bands you've seen live:

David Bowie
Elton John
Midnight Oil
Fishbone
U2
George Clinton/P-Funk
Replacements
R.E.M.
Prince
Paul McCartney
Rolling Stones

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@RobStutzman 1 - with voting by mail, there can be a lag between when the voter mails it, the county receives & processes it, and voter files updated. Can be 3-7 days lag.
2 - might not be 37% of all registered voters have already cast a ballot, but 37% of likely primary electorate has.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

For those not familiar with WV ballot design, it lists the candidates’ home counties next to their name. Ends up creating regional voting, especially in low information statewide races.

That said, results also map closely to media markets so could be campaign effects.

[Taniel @Taniel]

quite the remarkable map for one of the supreme court races in West Virginia tonight!

a 5-way race, with each of 4 candidates occupying their corner of the state (interestingly, the blue color is the candidate who's coming in 5th, not 4th)!

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@electionsjoe WV lists the candidates home counties on the ballot, so it can often be regional voting.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@SeanTrende @AndyDerer Ozzy Osbourne and Paul Simon were both playing their farewell tour on the same day in DC in 2018. I went to see Paul Simon thinking Ozzy would go back on tour someday (like Kiss and the Crue did). And of course it’s Paul Simon who is now back touring.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

Now that polls have closed, it’s worth noting famous #TN07 voter Taylor Swift hadn’t voted early (per public records).

She might’ve voted today. We’ll know All Too Well in a few weeks when the voter file shows who turned out… and whose vote history has a Blank Space.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

A reminder to everyone analyzing election data tonight.

Tonight’s results tell us how people voted.

But it'll be a few weeks/months until we get the voter file data back of who voted to tell us how much of the results were about persuasion, turnout, or both.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@rorycooper Only small fraction of voters cast ballots by that point. Those who vote in beginning of ABEV window tend to be the hardest partisans from both sides, so generally not persuadable.

In fact, it was probably timed to drop then b/c earlier might've forced Jones off ticket.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@ishapiro What they all have in common is either a) Gov candidates have unique cross partisan appeal while LG races are more generic partisan behavior and/or b) Gov wins narrowly enough to allow for ticket splitting.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@ishapiro More recently in other states: NV elected GOP Gov & Dem Lt Gov in 2022. VT elected Phil Scott in 2022, but Dem Lt Gov in 2022. In NC, Dem Gov won reelection in 2020 but GOP Mark Robinson won Lt Gov race. In LA, Dem Bel Edwards wins as GOP Lt Gov wins.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

While everyone's wondering if Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce will take each other's last name, I'm wondering if he'll take her voting record. He's never voted in a midterm or primary election, just Presidential general elections.

[Ascent Strategic @AscentStrategic]

Our newest newsletter just dropped with a piece from @davidkanevsky, President and Founder of 3D Strategic Research, on how we should be thinking of A.I. in political campaigns in terms of "how, not if."

You can also find the other side of the argument we featured a few weeks ago, from Caryn Clark, urging caution when it comes to using A.I. in political creative.

Read the full piece from David 👇

https://t.co/KrsTFLrZdi

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@matt_knee @LandonWall_ @davidshor Definitely not a gender thing. Dem & GOP consultants were very similar in terms of gender. Nothing else demographic (age, seniority level, years of experience, field they work in) that would suggest demos are driving it.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@matt_knee @LandonWall_ @davidshor We did see in the qualitative research some concern around data ownership, though in theory that should be a bi-partisan concern (GOP should just be as wary of giving data to perceived liberal Big Tech as Dems are concerned about corporate ownership).

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@matt_knee @LandonWall_ @davidshor I don't suspect it's concern about environmental impact, at least not at the scale to cause such differences. No significant mentions in qualitative. While we didn't ask about it in quantitative, it didn't show up in Other open-ended responses.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

@matt_knee @LandonWall_ @davidshor Biggest concerns across party lines are around A.I. are around deep fakes and misinformation / hallucinations. But if in the Trump era, Dems more concerned about spreading misinformation, they may be more reluctant to embrace it.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

Political science literature says yard signs are not effective. Can I just volunteer to pass the puck to Ovechkin instead?

[Natalie Spala @_nataliespala]

How fun is this!

The @Capitals are giving away free lawn signs in honor of Alex Ovechkin’s chase of the NHL’s all-time goals record.

Fans can pick up free Capitals Watching Gr8 Chase signs at the Medstar Capitals Iceplex and Capital One Arena Team Stores starting today at 11.

[David Kanevsky @davidkanevsky]

While we won't have the full voter file for the IA SD-35 special election for awhile, the GOP actually did better in ABEV in the special than in the November 2024 election. That means Dems probably did even better w/ E-Day turnout, underscoring why special elections are special.

[Michael Pruser @MichaelPruser]

Democrat Mike Zimmer moved the district 26 points to the left, pulling off the upset in the Iowa SD-35 special election.

All the vote is in; Zimmer will hold the seat until at least November 2026, when the full term expires.