孙正

[The White House @WhiteHouse]

White House Accord on Super Intelligence

[高市早苗 @takaichi_sanae]

国民の皆様が直面されている「物価高」への対応は、昨年10月の高市内閣発足以来の最優先課題です。

とりわけ、中東情勢は依然として不透明であり、原油価格の見通しは困難な状況です。
そのため、「国民の皆様の命と暮らし」を守り、「経済活動」に支障を生じさせないよう、「中東情勢等対応予備費」を活用して、ガソリン、軽油・重油・灯油の価格を抑制するための補助を行っています。

軽油は、3月以降、世界的にガソリン以上に価格が上昇傾向にあります。

例えば米国では、直近の7ヶ月程度で、160.7円/ℓ（3月2日時点）が275.5円/ℓ（最新の9月21日時点）と、約1.7倍の水準に上昇しました。
この間、米国のガソリン価格の上昇は約1.5倍程度です。

こうした中、日本の軽油価格については、補助がなければ195.3円/ℓ（最新の9月21日時点）でしたが、補助により、軽油価格は同日時点で159.3円/ℓであり、軽油価格についても、日米欧の中で日本が一番安価な状況になっています。

軽油は、公共交通、トラック、農業用のトラクター、漁船や建設用の重機など幅広い用途で使われるため、その価格上昇は、生産・物流コスト上昇により多くの品目の価格上昇につながります。

米国では、軽油の輸出禁止措置を検討しているとの報道がありますが、我が国は必要な軽油のほぼ全てを国内の製油所で製造しており、米国を含めて海外からの輸入に依存している状況にはありません。

中東情勢が物価動向や経済に与える影響を注視しつつ、必要な時にはタイミングを逸することなく、｢中東情勢等対応予備費｣も活用して、国民の皆様の暮らしや経済活動に支障が出ないよう、臨機応変に、必要な対応を実施してまいります。

[孙正 @davieacc]

@ichmagcafelatte 完全支持你这样的维护自己利益的决定。👍🏻

[孙正 @davieacc]

串得不像

[Libby Tarde 🏳️‍⚧️🇵🇸 @LibbyTard17]

Every household in Britain should be forced to take in a refugee. We are a tolerant and welcoming nation. It's only fair that we open our doors and let them live with us 🌍

[Joan Larroumec @larroumecj]

La situation est simple :

La France ne produit plus assez de commun, de richesses et d'enfants depuis des décennies.
Elle a compensé avec de la dette et en bradant les bijoux de famille.

Donc en sacrifiant le passé et le futur.

Maintenant le système est à bout de souffle, il n'y a plus beaucoup de choses à brader, et plus beaucoup de gens prêts à prêter : la crise est inévitable.

Toute l'élite actuelle sera balayée. (Qui se souvient de Félix Gaillard et Pierre Pflimlin ?)
Un très grand nombre de tabous tomberont.
La crise dégradera profondément la situation déjà très grave de la France (imaginons simplement ce que l'Allemagne obtiendra de la France en échange de l'aide de la BCE sur sa dette).

Mais cela en réalité n'est pas la fin du jeu. Ce n'est que le début, la donnée de base.

La seule question qui vaille est désormais de savoir ce qui succédera à la crise.

Nous avons ce fantasme, à cause de notre Histoire, qu'à la crise succédera nécessairement le redressement. Il s'agit là plus de l'exception que de la règle.
Il y a plus souvent un Pétain qui succède à Reynaud qu'un De Gaulle qui succède aux collabos.

On ne sort des crises par le haut que si deux conditions sont remplies.

1. Que le diagnostic et ses solutions concrètes soient déjà établis avant que la grande purge n'ait lieu. (Les idées du plan Rueff sont mûres bien avant que De Gaulle revienne au pouvoir.)

2. Qu'une contre-élite, déjà proche des cercles du pouvoir mais à l'esprit neuf, capable de comprendre les enjeux spécifiques du temps, soit déjà structurée, se connaisse et soit prête à agir.

Ce sont les deux seules tâches qui incombent immédiatement à notre génération.

Tout le reste n'est qu'écran de fumée.

[Jack Zhai @JackZhaiTGG]

我觉得数据中心是美国再工业化的一次最后大规模努力。好处：1. 把最有钱的科技大厂发动起来了；2. 建在了很多内陆州，拉动了能源和电网升级的需求。缺陷：1. 创造的就业不如传统工厂多；2. 产业链依赖亚洲，利润让韩国台湾赚走了；3. ai导致的白领失业可能还大于创造的蓝领就业，奠定了社会的抵制情绪

[Laurent Michelon @LAURENTMICHEL0N]

Emmanuel Macron, who is preparing to sign a text with Merz to ask the Commission to design a tool to block trade with China (a EU-stylenSection 301), tries to justify the protectionist measures with one sentence :

"China subsidizes some of its industries to about 8 times the average in OECD countries, and that is not acceptable".

I have already explained here how France and Germany are massively subsidizing TSMC and ProLogium (respectively 50% and 30% of the total amount of the project), two Taiwanese companies, to set up factories on their territory.

But these are far from being recent exceptions to the dogma of free trade.

For decades, the EU used special legal exceptions to funnel billions into strategic sectors.
Instead of backing foreign firms, previous massive state aid packages primarily funded domestic tech giants, automotive suppliers, and aerospace consortiums through structural frameworks like the Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI), launched in 2018 (and expanded in 2023) to distribute over €10 billion in public funding to domestic chipmakers.

- STMicroelectronics (France/Italy) was heavily subsidized by the French and Italian governments, and also secured billions in joint state aid for a major manufacturing plant in Crolles, France.

- Infineon (Germany) received hundreds of millions in state backing for its €5 billion power electronics factory in Dresden, which broke ground before the European Chips Act was fully formalized.

- Bosch (Germany) was subsidized heavily under European microelectronics frameworks to build and scale its advanced wafer fab in Dresden.

- Soitec (France) received substantial state funding to scale its silicon-on-insulator (SOI) technologies used globally in smartphones and automotive chips.

Before ProLogium’s Dunkirk gigafactory project, the EU authorized two multi-billion-euro Battery IPCEIs to establish a domestic supply chain and counter China dominance:

- Automotive Cells Company / ACC (France/Germany/Italy): A joint venture between Stellantis, TotalEnergies (Saft), and later Mercedes-Benz. ACC received over €1.3 billion in public subsidies to build gigafactories in France and Germany.

- Northvolt (Sweden/Germany) secured a €902 million German state-aid package approved under temporary crisis frameworks to build its Heide gigafactory, explicitly preventing the company from moving that project to the United States. The company went bankrupt shortly after.

The ultimate precedent for European strategic subsidization is Airbus.

For decades, the governments of France, Germany, Spain, and the UK provided what they called "launch aid" (low-interest, repayable loans) covering up to 33% of development costs for new aircraft like the A380 and A350. This triggered a 17-year dispute with the U.S. at the WTO, functioning effectively as the blueprint for how Europe defends an industry it deems vital to its survival.

If we look now at the automotive industries of France, Germany, and Italy, Macron's double-standard when dealing with China becomes more obvious.
This industry has been deeply intertwined with state funding, nationalization, and heavy subsidies since the 1950s. For decades, these nations viewed their car industries not just as private businesses, but as national icons and vital employment engines.

France historically practiced dirigisme (state-directed capitalism) where the government directly owned and financed its carmakers:

In 1945, the French state seized Renault and turned it into a state-owned entity called the Régie Nationale. For decades (including the 1950s–1980s), its expansion, factories, and deficits were heavily subsidized or backed by the French taxpayer until it was privatized in the 1990s. France still maintains a significant shareholding in Renault today.

In 2014, when Peugeot faced bankruptcy, the French government stepped in with a €800 million capital injection to buy a 14% stake, matching Chinese firm Dongfeng to keep the company afloat.

In Germany, the "Volkswagen Law" (VW-Gesetz) was enacted in 1960 when Volkswagen was privatized, this law gave the German state of Lower Saxony a 20% voting share and a legal veto over any hostile foreign takeovers. This acted as a structural, permanent state shield for VW.

During economic downturns, Germany deployed multi-billion-euro consumer cash injections. In 2009, it introduced a €5 billion "cash-for-clunkers" scheme (Abwrackprämie) to artificially boost demand for German automakers during the global financial crisis.

It is important to keep in mind the history of European industrial juggernauts since the 1950s to realize how they would not be where they are today without state support.

Blaming China for merely borrowing a page from our book is eminently dishonest.

[KZG 口罩哥 @KZG6886]

美光刚交了财报：一个季度卖了542亿美元，净赚377亿美元

去年同一季，营收113亿，净利润才32亿

一年下来，营收变成4.8倍，净利润变成11.8倍

三个月前公司自己给的指引是500亿上下，市场预期也就505亿

卖一块钱存储芯片，净赚差不多七毛

[0x鸣人 @LuBtc888]

一份在15年前就在天涯被疯传的神贴

A股12条生存法则，

没想到放到今天还适用，时态在变唯有人不变。

[KZG 口罩哥 @KZG6886]

两年半来头一回，美光这季利润增量可能要压过英伟达了，存储这波太猛

[郭明錤｜Ming-Chi Kuo @mingchikuo]

我最新的產業調查顯示，Nvidia 開始測試以碳氫樹脂（hydrocarbon resin，HC）為主的無布 CCL，取代先前測試的 PTFE 無布 CCL，並搭配 HC 無布 PP，評估能否滿足預計於 2H27 量產的 Rubin Ultra NVL576（8 機櫃互連方案）之 switch tray PCB 需求。

在提升 PCB 生產性的目標下，HC 無布 CCL 的初步測試結果符合 switch tray 的高頻電性要求（表現不及原 PTFE 方案，但優於 M9 等級方案，甚至優於 M10 的帳面規格）。上述測試不代表最終定案，但顯示 Nvidia 仍在滿足電性要求的前提下，尋求更好的 PCB 製造良率與生產效率。

1. 重點解讀與分析：

(1) 先前測試 NVL576 switch tray 的組合，是 PTFE 無布 CCL 搭配 HC 無布 PP。近期的新一輪測試，則是以 HC 無布 CCL 替代原本的 PTFE 無布 CCL，HC 無布 PP 仍使用相同料號。

(2) 生益科技是目前 NVL576 switch tray 材料測試的領先供應商。相關材料包括 SG5300N（PTFE 無布 CCL）、SG1030N（HC 無布 CCL），以及 SIF09（HC 無布 PP）。

(3) 將 PTFE 無布 CCL 改為 HC 無布 CCL，主要是評估在改善 PCB 的製造良率與生產效率的目標下，同時滿足高頻電性要求。

(4) 為進一步優化 PCB 可製造性，後續也可能測試將 HC 無布 PP 換成 HC 有布 PP。導入 HC 有布 PP 的挑戰在於，能否仍達到訊號完整性與 0.4 dB/in 的損耗要求。

(5) 值得注意的是，SG1030N 與 SIF09 雖以 HC 為主要材料，但配方中仍含少量 PTFE。因此，這次測試並非完全去 PTFE 化，而是調整材料主體與組合，以兼顧高頻電性與 PCB 可製造性。

2. 結論：

(1) PTFE 導入高階 PCB 材料（CCL 與 PP）的長期趨勢明確，但未來兩年的出貨成長節奏仍有變數。關鍵在於：NVL576 switch tray PCB 的最終材料方案、NVL576 的採用比重，以及採用正交背板的 Kyber-like 機櫃設計之研發進展。

(2) HC 在高階 CCL／PP 的應用持續擴大。短期成長動能除了 NVL576 switch tray，還包括自 4Q26 開始放量的 M9 等級材料，以及後續的 M10。

(3) 預期未來規格定案與開始量產後，生益科技將加速導入中國的 HC 供應商（如既有的東材與聖泉，潛在供應商呈和等），有助於供應缺口改善與優化成本結構。

[孙正 @davieacc]

@abc202402 哦，一点开，在日华人一条……这下清楚了。人不为己天诛地灭，不怪你。在日本就好好当个日本人吧，别天天假装理性实则站日本了，看着嫌弃恶心。

[孙正 @davieacc]

@abc202402 你这段话的核心问题是，还是太喜欢下跪了。请问：日本正常化不正常化，或者自民党的企图能不能实现，为啥要影响中国的决策呢？一个国家最需要的自己强大，而不是把阻拦别人的意图当做自己的最高使命。你这种思维方式本身一下子就进入了日本的舒适区。还是那句话，别跪了，起来吧，黄老爷已经走了。

[Hassan @buildwithhassan]

Wait, I can't believe Anthropic posted this.

Their new research post is a full red team report on someone else's model, GLM-5.3 from Zhipu.

The finding is that it builds working exploits almost as well as Claude Mythos Preview. You know, the model Anthropic kept locked away for safety.

Except this one you can just download.

[Surya Kanegaonkar @suryakane]

Europe’s current condition is a function of WWII, the Marshall Plan, the Cold War and the fall of the Soviet Union. Europe, not just Germany, lost the war. The US - a maritime power - “won.” But so formidable were its maritime capabilities and control over global trade through the reserve currency post Suez crisis, that it could harbor serious transatlantic continental power aspirations. The intention was to keep Russia, a continental power, in check, by controlling Europe’s destiny.

Generations of politicians and the think tanks they aligned with were tacitly backed by the US. Meanwhile, as Russian influence waned post communism, the contours of US influence pushed further east. EU membership amongst eastern states mattered little unless attached to NATO membership. Ukraine would have been the last to fall, expanding the periphery deep into what Moscow sees as its back yard.

American influence in European politics kept the continent pliant and ever ready to sacrifice its economic, energy and security interests for Washington’s, when needed. The bureaucratic and political classes were tuned to hollow out the economy with overregulation, self-sabotaging green energy policies, overdependence on the US security umbrella and politically convenient uncontrolled immigration. Neoliberalism was foisted upon Europe, and was eventually readily accepted by a public mentally conditioned by American metaculture. It could have worked had the Euro become competitor to the Dollar, but that of course, was never allowed to happen. So Europe copied the most suboptimal policies of the US, including over-reliance on Chinese imports. Seeking short term profits, industries offshored manufacturing until those companies were rendered uncompetitive in the front of Chinese state-subsidized firms. But innate socialist impulses prevented any meaningful economic reform to pivot away from this model, which a capitalist US could afford when push came to shove.

A strong, cohesive and strategically autonomous Europe never suited US. The region is short of natural resources, and dependence on cheap Russian gas was the key to building a competitive industrial base. That was vetoed by Washington. The ability to print money at will was also limited. The US vetoed the use of a petroeuro over a decade ago, a move which would have supported a parallel reserve currency to the dollar. The strength of a reserve currency is that it can be printed at will. It allows markets allocate abundant capital to sunrise sectors and for an economic bloc to develop a technological edge.

Successive policy failures in Europe compounded, leading to economic stagnation, societal fissures and therefore, constrained strategic maneuverability. As a new great power contest emerged between the US and China/Russia, Europe has turned into one of the many proxy fronts of the US, much like the Gulf states.

When cheques of the Marshall Plan are called in decades later, Europe can pay back only by capitulating further at the cost of its future. The time to stand up for sovereign rights has passed. With a median age of natives pushing the high end of the 40s, the demographics do not support a strategic pivot to sovereignty. Europe’s managed decline can at best be kept peaceful through tactical regime changes, which Washington is ever ready to assist with. In the absence of this, more Chinese proxy governments - like the one in Spain - will find a footing. Influencing policy in a large market for Chinese goods is strategically critical for Washington. Rallying locals to push back against Russia is equally important for keeping the US sphere of influence somewhat intact.

But Beijing and Moscow know that this US outpost is structurally weakening. It may hold out for a few decades at best. And just like in West Asia, US influence may slowly recede. Or, the US doubles down and goes for overt reverse colonization. It’s battleground Europe with lessons for the rest of the world.

[Daddy Yadi @Dentalgiorgio]

Sigh. Just when it became the fastest-growing economy in Africa.

[孙正 @davieacc]

@PENGTAOGE1937 之前问你爬富士山到底哪里违法了，你东拉西扯给我来个“海拔”。这种面对问题不直面问题而喜欢东拉西扯的态度，不正是说明你学日本人已经学大成了吗？咋的日本留不下这是彻底恼羞成怒了？🤣👉🏻🤡

[孙正 @davieacc]

@PENGTAOGE1937 呀，这不是第一日吹，之前狂骂爬富士山的中国人，一口咬定爬山就是有问题的二手日本人吗？咋的？开始背刺你最爱的第二祖国啦？🤣

[Andrey Gorshkov @9andrey9]

央行贴息和释放流动性，总体对A股是大利好，受益方向“六张网”，最大受益者是科技创新方向。

[拖拉机 @tuolaji2024]

下午传闻科技和房地产贴息，果然应验了，央行给特定领域定向压低资金成本，本质是宽信用加结构性宽松。

最大边际受益方：科技成长（再贷款支持比例翻倍叠加额度增加）和基建链（水利、电网、地下管网、物流）

A 股太先知了，真的是要砸死你才给利好，依旧是祖训优先，偷跑半个月的事了。