Jacob Davis

data, analytics, & strategy | @Penn @Wharton @Steelers | the past is just prologue

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

The @nfl returns tomorrow - and so it's time to introduce V3 of my forecasting model to the world! I used @nflseedR to help me create 10k universes to explore the 2022 season. Here are the average outcomes across all of the simulations.

And a 🧵 on the model #nflverse

[seth @dudewithsign]

Aki Technologies (@akitechnologies) helps brands do it better. Learn more here: https://t.co/cmxPX0Pdoy

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

I forgot to post the model last week, so in an effort to keep myself accountable, here's how the model performed vs @FiveThirtyEight these last two weeks. Both had strong week 9s and much tougher week 10s.

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

Week 11 of the #nfl season kicks off tonight, so let's take a look at what my models sees as the current state of the league #nflverse #rstats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

Jumping ahead to Week 11 picks, the model likes @packers, despite conventional wisdom, and sees a @Saints victory over a reeling @RamsNFL team. #nflverse

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

And lastly, this week's picks and last week's performance in @FiveThirtyEight's pick em game - I forgot to input them prior to the Ravens win on Thursday - I would have lost 2 points. This week, the model gets bold and takes the @ChicagoBears over @MiamiDolphins #nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

I'll be in transit most of the day tomorrow, so let's do a lightning round of my #nfl model's output following week 8! #nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

This week, I'm pairing the evolving power rankings with weekly team strength estimates - track my model's view of your favorite team - you might be surprised!

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

And lastly, my model's Week 8 #nfl picks. Once again, the @steelers are the biggest underdog this week 😢. Let's just hope the reps for @kennypickett10 lead to great future outcomes #nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

It's week 8 in the #nfl, so let's check in on the latest from my model #nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

Last week, the model had respectable performance in @FiveThirtyEight, but needs to get a bit better as the season turns into the back half. At least I think I see some potential improvements in game picking for next year

[Total Sports Enterprises @TotalSportsEnt]

If Kenny Pickett scores 2+ touchdowns AND the Steelers win tonight, we'll give a Kenny Pickett autographed jersey to someone who retweets this tweet AND follows us!

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

That's it for our tangent - onto the weekly predictions. Biggest surprise of the week? @49ers over the @Chiefs at home by 1. I probably wouldn't bet on it...

As always, I welcome questions and comments
#nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

It's week 7 of the #NFL season, so let's check in on my model's latest forecast

Following the @Steelers surprising win over @Buccaneers, my model adjusted Pittsburgh up and out of the lead position for the number 1 pick. I guess that's good? #nflverse #RStats

[Jacob Davis @davisj2007]

Here are the various universes they see - the models are highly correlated, but it's still interesting to see the variances, including where my @steelers end up 😁