@thejefflutz And 10K Robotaxis is 1M miles + per day - which means safety obviously has to be VERY high even at these numbers
“Much better” than human safety is not enough unless it is 5X-10X better
@ValueAnalyst1 I wonder if a group of former disgruntled Tesla employees who did monotonous work exposed to edge cases of a fleet driving millions of miles a day on outdated software could possibly have a distorted view of present day reality? 🤔😂
Don’t trust @ValueAnalyst1
@StanphylCap OF COURSE the AI/cybercab event was highly planned and mapped.
Maybe you should send out the Shorty Air Force to get some better data on Cybercabs filling up parking lots 🕵🏻♂️😂
$TSLA $TSLAQ
@Xav_Swift@nishkidoonoo@elonmusk I agree most longs haven’t done the work on it - so you assumed I didn’t - big mistake.
At least you’re smart enough not to short it…
@Xav_Swift@nishkidoonoo In addition, last 3 months of Austin crash data very promising.
Prediction: Waymo data impressive mostly because of decrease in major, injury crashes, but has hit a local maximum. Tesla will far surpass them in safety in next 3-6 months and the market will finally wake up…
Tesla Robotaxi was at least ~1.81x safer than humans in April 2026. With the latest NHTSA crash report, and thanks to Robotaxi Tracker, I can finally report that Tesla Robotaxi in Austin surpassed average human safety in April 2026 (last month).
1. According to NHTSA, I estimate the human crash rate, including both reported and non-reported crashes, is ~249K miles per accident.
2. I collected all Tesla-reported mileage, as well as 7-day active fleet size from Robotaxi Tracker, and found the mileage is pretty predictable. This allows me to accurately estimate monthly Robotaxi mileage in Austin with <5% error.
3. Using the latest NHTSA crash report, I calculated the 3-month rolling crash rate, since Tesla sometimes has 0 monthly crashes. It clearly shows that in April, the 3-month rolling crash rate surpassed humans for the first time.
Tesla recently did an architectural rewrite of FSD using MLIR (Multi-Level Intermediate Representation) for multiple reasons including faster reaction time, faster model iteration speed, and most importantly - safety.
Tesla can produce the entire Waymo fleet in an afternoon. Why truly scale when significant safety improvements are in the pipeline?
More details:
https://t.co/QrmJRhoOn3
@raines1220 I don’t think there’s any evidence that “paid Robotaxi miles” is solely Austin (SF included also).
Therefore, Austin miles are much lower than you assume and crash rate is higher.
I hope I’m wrong, but where is the evidence?
@TeslaBoomerMama She said they likely will be “taking it down” when it goes public - so the reason for $TSLA shareholders is to buy @SpaceX at greater than 100X sales from @ARKInvest?
1/🧵Respectfully disagree with the framing here. The strategic logic of combining Tesla and SpaceX may be sound — but timing, valuation, and structure matter enormously in M&A. A few points worth considering:
Agree 100%
But, at this multiple and a ~$1.5 trillion MC a good amount of AI/robotics is already priced in.
We can debate how much of it, but I don’t think we can deny it’s significant.
@bradsferguson@LimitingThe
Well articulated.
I'm a fan of SpaceX and Tesla and a future merger.
But I am also heavily invested in Tesla and want to see the decade of investment adequately represented in the deal.
There are two companies that are valued very differently.