Kevin DeCamp

Stock analyst at Stansberry Research/CT tech. Time is more valuable than money. Long $TSLA since 2012.

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@nymbusjp “We all agree safety is solved”. What does that mean?

See below (and that’s only at 10K Robotaxis)

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@thejefflutz And 10K Robotaxis is 1M miles + per day - which means safety obviously has to be VERY high even at these numbers

“Much better” than human safety is not enough unless it is 5X-10X better

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@ValueAnalyst1 I wonder if a group of former disgruntled Tesla employees who did monotonous work exposed to edge cases of a fleet driving millions of miles a day on outdated software could possibly have a distorted view of present day reality? 🤔😂

Don’t trust @ValueAnalyst1

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@StanphylCap OF COURSE the AI/cybercab event was highly planned and mapped.

Maybe you should send out the Shorty Air Force to get some better data on Cybercabs filling up parking lots 🕵🏻‍♂️😂

$TSLA $TSLAQ

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

I remember the good old days when parking lots full of cars were a bearish talking point from the galaxy brained “Tesla Shorty Air Force” 🤣🤣🤣

$TSLA

[Chris Deardurff @cddeardurff]

Dallas Cybercab population is multiplying, but they still appear to be asleep, for now

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo @elonmusk I agree most longs haven’t done the work on it - so you assumed I didn’t - big mistake.

At least you’re smart enough not to short it…

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@Xav_Swift @nishkidoonoo In addition, last 3 months of Austin crash data very promising.

Prediction: Waymo data impressive mostly because of decrease in major, injury crashes, but has hit a local maximum. Tesla will far surpass them in safety in next 3-6 months and the market will finally wake up…

[Raines @raines1220]

Tesla Robotaxi was at least ~1.81x safer than humans in April 2026. With the latest NHTSA crash report, and thanks to Robotaxi Tracker, I can finally report that Tesla Robotaxi in Austin surpassed average human safety in April 2026 (last month).

1. According to NHTSA, I estimate the human crash rate, including both reported and non-reported crashes, is ~249K miles per accident.

2. I collected all Tesla-reported mileage, as well as 7-day active fleet size from Robotaxi Tracker, and found the mileage is pretty predictable. This allows me to accurately estimate monthly Robotaxi mileage in Austin with <5% error.

3. Using the latest NHTSA crash report, I calculated the 3-month rolling crash rate, since Tesla sometimes has 0 monthly crashes. It clearly shows that in April, the 3-month rolling crash rate surpassed humans for the first time.

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

Tesla recently did an architectural rewrite of FSD using MLIR (Multi-Level Intermediate Representation) for multiple reasons including faster reaction time, faster model iteration speed, and most importantly - safety.

Tesla can produce the entire Waymo fleet in an afternoon. Why truly scale when significant safety improvements are in the pipeline?

More details:

https://t.co/QrmJRhoOn3

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@raines1220 @MLFuturist This is what I was looking for. Great news, thank you.

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@raines1220 I don’t think there’s any evidence that “paid Robotaxi miles” is solely Austin (SF included also).

Therefore, Austin miles are much lower than you assume and crash rate is higher.

I hope I’m wrong, but where is the evidence?

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@technoking_420 @elonmusk is not gonna walk away from $TSLA. It’s a reasonable debate to have with good points on both sides you FUDker @technoking_420

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@TeslaBoomerMama She said they likely will be “taking it down” when it goes public - so the reason for $TSLA shareholders is to buy @SpaceX at greater than 100X sales from @ARKInvest?

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

@TeslaBoomerMama @DoctorJack16 You’re not concerned at all by a potential 100 P/S ratio for SpaceX?

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

Best 🧵 on @SpaceX $TSLA merger 👇🏼

[Steven Spencer @sspencer_smb]

1/🧵Respectfully disagree with the framing here. The strategic logic of combining Tesla and SpaceX may be sound — but timing, valuation, and structure matter enormously in M&amp;A. A few points worth considering:

[Kevin DeCamp @decampkev]

Agree 100%

But, at this multiple and a ~$1.5 trillion MC a good amount of AI/robotics is already priced in.

We can debate how much of it, but I don’t think we can deny it’s significant.

@bradsferguson @LimitingThe

[The Limiting Factor @LimitingThe]

Well articulated.

I'm a fan of SpaceX and Tesla and a future merger.

But I am also heavily invested in Tesla and want to see the decade of investment adequately represented in the deal.

There are two companies that are valued very differently.