ex-Consultant. Lessons on addressing digital growth in the public sector. Parkway Partner, not Beltway Bandit. (DMs open - happy to help ) Views my own.
C.H.O.P.P.E.D.
Cars: Repo rate ⬆️
Housing: Mortgage Rates ⬆️
Orders: Inventory ⬆️
Pricing: Lag as market adjusts, then pricing for Cars, Housing, Retail Goods ⬇️ with housing taking the longest
Profits: ⬇️
Employment: ⬇️
Deflation: Outcome of the above by 2024
What’s happening in America is roughly equivalent to the yearbook committee and theater kid types getting rocked by a football team and chess club alliance.
Stop telling me your company is like a family.
It’s not.
When was the last time you fired someone from your family?
“Son, your mother and I have been talking, and we’ve decided to outsource ‘taking out the trash’. I’m afraid we’re going to have to let you go.”
At Netflix, for example, we never thought of ourselves as a family. We always considered ourselves more like a sports team. And not a Little League team, where everyone gets to play and at the end of the season everyone gets a trophy.
No, we were a professional team playing at the highest level, and my responsibility as manager wasn’t to make sure everyone got playing time. It was to make sure I put the best possible team on the field for every game. I did that because I owed that to the team owners. I owed it to the fans. And most importantly, I owed it to the other players.
I learned a long time ago that what the best players want is not just a friendly attitude in the locker room. They want to know that everyone excels at their position. They want to know that everyone will be trying as hard as they can. They want to win.
That’s why a manager’s job is not just to hire well and motivate your team to be the best they can be. It’s also to make sure that when someone isn’t holding their end, you’re the person who sits them down and explains why you’re sending them down to the minors.
This is especially hard in a startup, because in almost every case, the players you start with aren’t going to be the ones you finish with.
At the beginning, you’re looking for generalists. Since you don’t yet know what they will need to be great at, you want people who are good at a lot of things. You want people who are comfortable with the fact that their job description is going to change weekly. You want people who are motivated by the adventure, rather than by stability.
That first team is going to give you everything they have. They’ll leave better paying jobs with great benefits to work for a fraction of their salary. They’ll work nights and weekends. They’ll do everything you ask—and then some.
So it’s especially brutal when your company is just starting to take off, and you have to sit someone down and tell them that they won’t be coming with you on the next stage of the journey. Or that you’re bringing in a more experienced executive over them.
That part is neither easy nor fun. But it’s the job. And if I can’t do that, I don’t deserve to be in my position either.
Peak Fiat.
Private equity firms are purchasing kids sports leagues in suburban areas. My partner has a teenage son and to play in the basketball league costs $2000 per season. This used to be run by parents for a few hundred dollars, and it’s worse than that because when my partner goes to the games, he needs to get a wrist tag and they charge $15 admission , they also charge 10 to 15 to park at the school where they hold these games. These guys are pigs.
Fiat cannot fail fast enough.
C.H.O.P.P.E.D.
Cars: Repo rate ⬆️
Housing: Mortgage Rates ⬆️
Orders: Inventory ⬆️
Pricing: Lag as market adjusts, then pricing for Cars, Housing, Retail Goods ⬇��� with housing taking the longest
Profits: ⬇️
Employment: ⬇️
Deflation: Outcome of the above by 2024
#Colorado HC Deion Sanders:
“We’re doing things that have never been done and that makes people uncomfortable. When you see a confident black man, talking his talk and walking his walk, coaching 75% African Americans in the locker room…that’s kind of threatening…..oh they don’t like that.”
I was talking to an AI expert a couple days ago who told me that if progress in AI stopped now, it would still be another 2 years before we knew exactly what GPT-4 was capable of.
5 yrs ago I thought cars with big screens on the dash (or behind the front seats) were cool. Today, have zero desire to look at ANY screen more than I’m forced to; am starting to actively dislike screens in cars. A phone mount (for maps) is all I want. This is my dream view now: