Deep Reality

Investment Insights

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@alexeheath @Jason

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@DaBao_ @JapanDeepValue1 @finphysnerd @Larryjamieson_ Is Tencent a generation buy here?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@the_zack_zhu Let us know if you come to London!

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@DaBao_ @pandawatch88 Anta sports?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@the_zack_zhu How do you not get trapped in the three stocks when they are not working?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@AAHSoomro Why are Pakistani companies willing to do such large buybacks? It’s unusual in other emerging markets.

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@mastersinvest Any other lessons from the Himalaya talk?

[Gregory Blotnick @gregoryblotnick]

"The best way to think about investments is to be in a room with no one else and just think." Buffett

https://t.co/XKQHpqP48h

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@InvestInJapan @orrdavid Any good?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@explorists Sorry I mean the print chart for the wall. The current one goes to 2014

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@cloneinvestor Try now. I changed settings. I

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@BidBird10 @marketplunger1 What's your advice on how best to do that?

[ADONIS @adonispara]

Dostoevsky writing to his brother a few hours after nearly being executed by order of Tsar Nicholas I.

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@AltayCapital @IJW121 If you borrow you also cancel out the currency risk?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@brettgardner_10 What does the book exactly say?

[Pernas Research @pernasresearch]

Some takeaways...

Every source of uncertainty should reduce position size

Large positions require disproportionately better information. Kelly is nonlinear. Going from 5% to 15% isn't simply "three times more conviction." It’s like ~6 times more conviction.

Your biggest risk probably isn't misjudging an individual company, it's overestimating how independent your best ideas really are.

Kelly is an upper bound. Kelly's growth curve is surprisingly flat below the optimum but falls off rapidly above it. A modest reduction in size sacrifices little long-term compounding, while overbetting can dramatically impair it.

Improvements in position sizing can contribute more to long-term wealth creation than incremental improvements in security selection.

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@HiddenGemsInves @BenOB2272 The investment over the same 5 year period?

[Deep Reality @deepreality0]

@JapanDeepValue1 @AltayCapital Why can’t it be taken out?