*US MAY PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.4% M/M; EST. +0.5%
*US MAY PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 4.1% Y/Y; EST. +4.1%
*US MAY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 0.3% M/M; EST. +0.3%
*US MAY CORE PCE PRICE INDEX RISES 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4%
US JOBLESS CLAIMS -12K TO 215K IN JUN-20 WK; SURVEY 223K
US JUN-13 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS +21K TO 1,821,000
US JUN-13 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 227K
It is crazy how people who have never dared to step outside their comfort zone will sit there and criticize athletes so harshly. Please, go do it yourself if it is so easy
U.S. S&P GLOBAL JUNE FLASH COMPOSITE PMI AT 52.2 (VS 51.5 IN MAY)
U.S. S&P GLOBAL JUNE FLASH SERVICES PMI AT 51.3 (FORECAST 51.0)
U.S. S&P GLOBAL JUNE FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI AT 55.7 (FORECAST 54.8)
BREAKING: Nasdaq 100 futures extend losses to -3% on the day as the global tech selloff gains momentum.
South Korea’s stock market fell -10% today amid the tech decline.
BREAKING: The US has issued Iran a general oil-related license allowing the production, delivery, and sale of Iranian-origin oil, petrochemical, and petroleum products through August 21st.
Iranian oil is officially returning to global markets for the first time since 2018.
Fed dot plot and projections:
Median fed funds rate view:
- End-2026: 3.8% (prev 3.4%)
- End-2027: 3.6% (prev 3.1%)
- End-2028: 3.4% (prev 3.1%)
- Longer run: 3.1% (unchanged)
Projections now imply 25 bps of hikes in 2026, followed by 25 bps of cuts in both 2027 and 2028.
Economic projections:
- End-2026 PCE inflation: 3.6% vs 2.7% in March
- Core PCE: 3.3% vs 2.7%
- 2026 GDP: 2.2% vs 2.4%
- End-2026 unemployment: 4.3% vs 4.4%
- PCE not back to 2% target until 2028
Sharp hawkish revision. The Fed now sees a hike this year as inflation forecasts jump.
FED LIFTS RATE PATH, INFLATION OUTLOOK RISES
Federal Reserve projections show the median fed funds rate rising to 3.8% in 2026 (from 3.4%), 3.6% in 2027, and 3.4% in 2028, with the long-run rate unchanged at 3.1%. Officials now expect higher inflation through 2026, with PCE not returning to the 2% target until 2028. Growth is slightly lower, unemployment broadly steady. Only 18 of 19 policymakers submitted projections.