El ES

Below Average Investor

[El ES @defnotES2]

Fraudman

[Sam Altman @sama]

I would like to clarify a few things.

First, the obvious one: we do not have or want government guarantees for OpenAI datacenters. We believe that governments should not pick winners or losers, and that taxpayers should not bail out companies that make bad business decisions or otherwise lose in the market. If one company fails, other companies will do good work.

What we do think might make sense is governments building (and owning) their own AI infrastructure, but then the upside of that should flow to the government as well. We can imagine a world where governments decide to offtake a lot of computing power and get to decide how to use it, and it may make sense to provide lower cost of capital to do so. Building a strategic national reserve of computing power makes a lot of sense. But this should be for the government’s benefit, not the benefit of private companies.

The one area where we have discussed loan guarantees is as part of supporting the buildout of semiconductor fabs in the US, where we and other companies have responded to the government’s call and where we would be happy to help (though we did not formally apply). The basic idea there has been ensuring that the sourcing of the chip supply chain is as American as possible in order to bring jobs and industrialization back to the US, and to enhance the strategic position of the US with an independent supply chain, for the benefit of all American companies. This is of course different from governments guaranteeing private-benefit datacenter buildouts.

There are at least 3 “questions behind the question” here that are understandably causing concern.

First, “How is OpenAI going to pay for all this infrastructure it is signing up for?” We expect to end this year above $20 billion in annualized revenue run rate and grow to hundreds of billion by 2030. We are looking at commitments of about $1.4 trillion over the next 8 years. Obviously this requires continued revenue growth, and each doubling is a lot of work! But we are feeling good about our prospects there; we are quite excited about our upcoming enterprise offering for example, and there are categories like new consumer devices and robotics that we also expect to be very significant. But there are also new categories we have a hard time putting specifics on like AI that can do scientific discovery, which we will touch on later.

We are also looking at ways to more directly sell compute capacity to other companies (and people); we are pretty sure the world is going to need a lot of “AI cloud”, and we are excited to offer this. We may also raise more equity or debt capital in the future.
But everything we currently see suggests that the world is going to need a great deal more computing power than what we are already planning for.

Second, “Is OpenAI trying to become too big to fail, and should the government pick winners and losers?” Our answer on this is an unequivocal no. If we screw up and can’t fix it, we should fail, and other companies will continue on doing good work and servicing customers. That’s how capitalism works and the ecosystem and economy would be fine. We plan to be a wildly successful company, but if we get it wrong, that’s on us.

Our CFO talked about government financing yesterday, and then later clarified her point underscoring that she could have phrased things more clearly. As mentioned above, we think that the US government should have a national strategy for its own AI infrastructure.

Tyler Cowen asked me a few weeks ago about the federal government becoming the insurer of last resort for AI, in the sense of risks (like nuclear power) not about overbuild. I said “I do think the government ends up as the insurer of last resort, but I think I mean that in a different way than you mean that, and I don’t expect them to actually be writing the policies in the way that maybe they do for nuclear”. Again, this was in a totally different context than datacenter buildout, and not about bailing out a company. What we were talking about is something going catastrophically wrong—say, a rogue actor using an AI to coordinate a large-scale cyberattack that disrupts critical infrastructure—and how intentional misuse of AI could cause harm at a scale that only the government could deal with. I do not think the government should be writing insurance policies for AI companies.

Third, “Why do you need to spend so much now, instead of growing more slowly?”. We are trying to build the infrastructure for a future economy powered by AI, and given everything we see on the horizon in our research program, this is the time to invest to be really scaling up our technology. Massive infrastructure projects take quite awhile to build, so we have to start now.

Based on the trends we are seeing of how people are using AI and how much of it they would like to use, we believe the risk to OpenAI of not having enough computing power is more significant and more likely than the risk of having too much. Even today, we and others have to rate limit our products and not offer new features and models because we face such a severe compute constraint.

In a world where AI can make important scientific breakthroughs but at the cost of tremendous amounts of computing power, we want to be ready to meet that moment. And we no longer think it’s in the distant future. Our mission requires us to do what we can to not wait many more years to apply AI to hard problems, like contributing to curing deadly diseases, and to bring the benefits of AGI to people as soon as possible.

Also, we want a world of abundant and cheap AI. We expect massive demand for this technology, and for it to improve people’s lives in many ways.

It is a great privilege to get to be in the arena, and to have the conviction to take a run at building infrastructure at such scale for something so important. This is the bet we are making, and given our vantage point, we feel good about it. But we of course could be wrong, and the market—not the government—will deal with it if we are.

[Gain of Fauci @DschlopesIsBack]

It’s mind-boggling that this woman gets paid to play basketball. This is literally the worst shooting form you could ever have. https://t.co/qdNPiWc4Ws

[El ES @defnotES2]

@DMAnews1 Its clear that this attorney general is a clown. not even investigating O'Keefe. F her.

[⚽️ Kyle Sheldon @kylesheldon]

Is this the best World Cup team photo of all time?

Bravo, Norway 🇳🇴⚔️

[El ES @defnotES2]

@commcenterpod @oksanka_luky I do know something.

You are very low IQ. Its why you answer phones. No experience necessary

[Only In Boston @OnlyInBOS]

The French national soccer team has chosen Bentley University in Waltham as its training base for the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

One of the world's top teams, led by Kylian Mbappé, will practice in Massachusetts while competing in the tournament.

[El ES @defnotES2]

@commcenterpod You are EXTREMELY LOW IQ

[El ES @defnotES2]

@KHerriage 10/13/22 is just a date you chose.

Why not 2009? QQQ is up a record 3300%

[El ES @defnotES2]

@BostonByBirth @00Dark300 https://t.co/b6k3mQm34E

[NASA Space Alerts @NASASpaceAlerts]

NASA's planetary defense network watches the skies for objects of all sizes - and specifically is tasked with finding objects 140 meters and larger which can cause widespread damage. Meteoroids, like this one over New England, are much much smaller. Almost impossible to track in space, they do not survive passage through our atmosphere intact and do not pose a hazard.

[El ES @defnotES2]

@BostonByBirth @00Dark300 Thats incorrect. NASA has said no one would have been hurt.

[Nikki Haley @NikkiHaley]

So called human rights “experts” at the UN have been bought and paid for by some of the worst abusers —like China and Russia. America is the largest financial supporter of this endless cesspool. Another reason we shouldn’t give the UN a dime until there’s accountability.

[Mat Nuclear @MatNuclear]

Nigeria is basically split 50/50 with Muslims and Christians.

Yet essentially all of the terrorist groups are Islamic, why?

It is because of ideological doctrine, it's not arbitrary.

[El ES @defnotES2]

@grahamformaine And you want to Kill AIPAC and jews around the world

[Tyler Jankoski NBC5 ☀️ @TylerJankoski]

Wild new video of the meteor that everybody is talking about! This was taken near Smugglers’ Notch, by Ashton Albright of Jeffersonville, Vermont.

[El ES @defnotES2]

@JillFilipovic this woman is what is wrong with America, and Politics. Flat out awful human

[Brent Scher @BrentScher]

NEW: It’s real. Here is Graham Platner’s active profile on Kik, a “predators paradise” app known as a hotbed for child pornography, kidnapping, and sexual abuse.

Full story @realDailyWire from @TimRiceDC: https://t.co/8lpCwfo5ic

[Zero Gravity New England @zg_newengland]

Congrats to 5th Grade @ASAhoops 🏀on becoming #Champs at #ZGKINGOFTHECOURT 💪🏼

[El ES @defnotES2]

@JillFilipovic Trump is infinitely better than this man. I assume you STFU now?

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

Not caring about him wheeling six chicks at once when he was married is your choice

Not caring that he pretends to be a populist when he went to one of the richest prep schools in America is your choice

Not caring he went to war saying he always wanted to kill people is your choice

Not caring he went to work for Blackwater after serving and now calls the army very dumb and stupid is your choice

Not caring that he made fun of Purple Heart recipients is your choice

Not caring that he jerks off in porta potties is your choice

Not caring about all the shit he’s deleted on Reddit and he never thought would see the light of day and shows what a giant jackass is he is your choice

Not caring that he is a Nazi is your choice but if you support him and promote him don’t ever lecture anybody about the moral high ground again because you are a piece of shit

[El ES @defnotES2]

@YaboiClwdNkl928 @tjdelsanto ever hear about dinosaurs?