Defrag

Investor. Writer. Investing: SK Ventures. Not often found in cities.

[Defrag @defrag]

As a general rule, anyone reading my tweets should assume that something north of 65% of them are actually me joking around.

[Defrag @defrag]

Is this a joke?

[Jim Cramer @jimcramer]

Strategy (Micro) sells Bitcoin, $2.5 million. May have to reevaluate pro-bitcoin stance given how much Strategy has propped it up. Key trampoline for years. Some say manipulation. I think that's too strong

[Defrag @defrag]

I've been using the @camelfinance indicator to swing trade space stocks into the SpaceX IPO, and, well....it's been a blast (sorry, bad pun).

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Great look at the SpaceX shares unlock schedule as well as the potential passive buying schedule from @JSeyff @FrancisSharoon Depending on the early post-IPO returns, this could really play with and disperse the returns of "passive" funds (which is why there's arguably no such thing as passive). $SPCX

[Defrag @defrag]

Apparently, now that I'm in my 50s, my morning routine (reading, writing, pre-market open look at things, walk, then lift weights/kettlebell) now takes ~5 hours. Up at 5:30am -- ready to rock-n-roll at about 10:30. ;)

[World of Engineering @engineers_feed]

Dickens: It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

Schrödinger: Nice.

[Defrag @defrag]

Yep. Maybe the most interesting story of the week.

[Object Zero @Object_Zero_]

Anyone looking at the business plan for a factory that they intend to run for 15 years…

This is your wake up call.

The next industrial revolution is already here.

Not next year, not 5 years from now, today.
Your planning, your capex allocation, all of it is disrupted today.

Figure is approaching 100 hours of uninterrupted livestream, showing their product manning this sorting station. This was unimaginable 5 years ago.

You need 6 human workers under US law to do this with breaks, shifts, holidays and sickness cover. Figure is doing it with 4 humanoid robots.

This “team” of robots have sorted 95,000 packages in 75 hours. That’s 1,250 items / hour.

Nobody enjoys doing this sort of work, nobody does this in their free time. Not one person.
Just like nobody enjoyed hand picking tons of vegetables out of wet soil 300 years ago.

The revolution is here, and it’s televised.

There are still people who think factories are going to have specialist robots and that the humanoid form isn’t going to work out?

Pfft.

Maybe that happens too, but that doesn’t mean a lot of factories aren’t going to go with generalised humanoid centric layouts.

With a humanoid form factor, I see incredible spares strategy, planned obsolescence, residual value, agile production scaling, they can even start in existing factories.

Also…

Jevons paradox takes this economy to unknown heights, the price of everything is going to collapse towards the cost of the raw materials and the cost of raw materials and energy are the only really throttle on this economy.

May you live in interesting times.

[Defrag @defrag]

So help me God, if anything happens to Capt Tony's (one of the best bars in America) or Blue Heaven (THE BEST breakfast in America), I will be demanding retribution of the most severe sort.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and has begun discussing plans to attack the US base at Guantanamo Bay, US military vessels, and possibly Key West, Florida, per Axios.

Details include:

1. The threat is being described as potential "pretext for US military action"

2. CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba on Thursday and warned officials against engaging in hostilities

3. More US sanctions against Cuba could be announced this week

4. US intelligence says Cuba has been acquiring attack drones of "varying capabilities" from Russia and Iran since 2023

Key West is just 90 miles north of Cuba.

[Defrag @defrag]

I actually spent some time watching this livestream the other day...

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Figure AI's F.03 humanoid robots are now on their fourth day of 24/7 nonstop autonomous operation.

[Defrag @defrag]

LOL....*sigh*....

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

NEW: Senator Elizabeth Warren claims the Crypto Clarity Act will “blow up the economy”

[Defrag @defrag]

Agreed. Also, teen (and adult) alcohol consumption will come roaring back between 2028-2034.

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️The deeper signal is youth risk did not disappear.

It migrated inward.

Teen drinking fell because the old physical world of adolescence got dismantled. Alcohol belonged to a social ecosystem: unsupervised time, cars, parties, local jobs, malls, basements, boredom, flirting, older siblings, house gatherings, and the chaotic peer world where teenagers learned who they were by colliding with other people in real space.

That ecosystem was replaced by phones, surveillance, parental tracking, algorithmic entertainment, social anxiety, online status games, and a much thinner physical commons.

So the surface looks healthier. Fewer kids drinking. Fewer kids using weed. Fewer kids doing reckless things in public.

The hidden layer looks worse. The young are less reckless because they are less socially embodied. Less initiation. Less unsupervised friction. Less courage-building. Less embarrassment and recovery. Less real dating. Less independence. Less contact with the physical world before adulthood demands it.

The old teenage world produced damage, stupidity, alcohol abuse, pregnancy risk, fights, accidents, and bad decisions. No need to romanticize it. But it also produced social reps. It forced young people through discomfort. It made them practice attraction, rejection, conflict, reputation, risk, repair, and status in the open.

The new world suppresses visible risk while increasing invisible fragility.

That is the trade.

A teenager can avoid drinking, avoid parties, avoid sex, avoid driving, avoid real confrontation, avoid rejection, avoid shame, avoid danger, and still arrive at 23 emotionally underbuilt. Cleaner behavior does not automatically mean stronger formation.

This is why the marriage chart and the teen drinking chart are the same story at different stages. People are not suddenly failing to pair in adulthood. The whole pathway into embodied adulthood has been slowing for years before marriage even becomes the question.

The real truth: society solved part of the teen vice problem by shrinking the arena where teenagers become adults.

It took away the dangerous commons and replaced it with controlled isolation.

The result is safer kids with weaker initiation into real life.

[Defrag @defrag]

I do delight in reading Mike's 13F filings.

[Defrag @defrag]

Go read, "The Fourth Turning is Here."

[Überrenditen @Uberrenditen]

Der 100-Jahre-Plan für den Aktienmarkt

Wenn du dir die letzten 100 Jahre anschaust, siehst du ein klares Muster: Der Markt wiederholt immer wieder die gleichen Zyklen. Seit der Großen Depression 1930 gab es drei große Abwärtsphasen und drei Aufwärtsphasen .
Wir stecken gerade mitten im dritten großen Bullenmarkt.

Die schlechten Zeiten (Bärenmärkte)
Diese Phasen dauerten meistens etwa 9 Jahre (die Weltwirtschaftskrise von 1930 war mit 12 Jahren eine Ausnahme). Ein typisches Zeichen war, dass der Markt zweimal oben und zweimal unten „anklopfte“, bevor es wieder aufwärts ging. Oft krachte der Kurs bis zu einer bestimmten langfristigen Linie (dem 300er-Schnitt im Monatschart) und startete von dort aus neu durch.

Die guten Zeiten (Bullenmärkte)
Die ersten beiden großen Aufwärtsphasen dauerten jeweils 24 und 25 Jahre. Das Spannende: Sobald der Markt einmal Fahrt aufgenommen hatte, fiel er fast nie unter eine bestimmte grüne Linie (den 100er-Schnitt). Die blaue Linie (50er-Schnitt) war dabei immer die beste Chance, um günstig nachzukaufen, wenn es mal zwischendurch ruckelte.

Warum steigt der Markt so extrem?
Hinter jedem Bullenmarkt steckt eine neue Technologie:
Früher waren es industrielle Durchbrüche.
Dann kam der Internet-Boom.
Heute erleben wir den E-Commerce- und Social-Media-Boom.

Klar, irgendwann platzen diese Blasen immer, weil die Leute übertreiben. Aber die Technik bleibt! Das Internet ist nicht verschwunden, nur weil die Kurse im Jahr 2000 abgestürzt sind – es wurde zum Fundament für alles, was wir heute nutzen.

Der KI-Boom
Wir sind jetzt im zweiten Teil des aktuellen Aufschwungs, und der wird von der Künstlichen Intelligenz getrieben. Wahrscheinlich wird diese Blase um das Jahr 2034 platzen. Das wird wehtun, aber danach wird KI das feste Rückgrat unserer gesamten Wirtschaft sein.
Im Grunde sind die letzten 100 Jahre eine Kette von Erfindungen, die die Kurse immer höher treiben. Die Abstürze zwischendurch sind nur dazu da, die heiße Luft rauszulassen und Platz für neues Geld und die nächste Technologie zu machen.

Was bedeutet das für dich heute?
Wenn dieser Zyklus so läuft wie die letzten beiden, könnte der S&P 500 bis auf 17.000 Punkte steigen.

Es wird zwischendurch immer wieder Korrekturen geben. Der Zoll-Crash Anfang 2025 war so ein Moment, hat aber die wichtige blaue Linie nicht ganz berührt.

Schau auf den RSI-Anzeiger. Wenn der unter 30 fällt, ist das eine Chance des Jahrzehnts. Das ist in 100 Jahren erst sechsmal passiert – und jedes Mal war es der perfekte Zeitpunkt zum Kaufen.

Liken, Folgen, Speichern, Kommentieren, Teilen.
Danke für den Support 🫶😊🫶

[Defrag @defrag]

Proud, early investors in @KeplerComms

[NVIDIA Robotics @NVIDIARobotics]

@planet @FireflySpace .@KeplerComms is using NVIDIA Jetson Orin to power the first space-based, scalable cloud infrastructure, processing data in-orbit across its optical constellation.

[Defrag @defrag]

@mikealfred @JoeCarlasare same (but 15 yrs).

[Defrag @defrag]

As predicted...

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

"Florida’s migration patterns are changing. Residents in their prime working years are heading to other states, while fewer people are arriving," per WSJ

[Defrag @defrag]

Is nuclear considered clean energy? As investors in Kepler Communications, we're big fans of DCOs (data centers in orbit)....just sayin' ;)

[Polymarket @Polymarket]

JUST IN: Microsoft is reportedly considering dropping its goal of powering data centers with clean energy.

[Defrag @defrag]

Nice! (full disclosure: proud, early investors)

[Jeremy Levine @JerLevine]

So excited to have the opportunity to work with @iamnicklundgren who's joining us as CLO.

[Defrag @defrag]

Yowza.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation surges to a record $1.2 trillion, rising another +20% in 7 days.

This officially puts Anthropic's implied valuation up +900% since October 2025, per onchain pre-IPO trading data.

Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain on Jupiter, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation.

This now makes Anthropic ~20% larger than OpenAI's pre-IPO implied valuation.

If Anthropic were to IPO at a $1.2 trillion valuation, it would be the 11th most valuable public company in the world.

The AI Revolution is accelerating.

[Defrag @defrag]

A couple of years ago, Paul and I made the argument that the Nashville-Florida C-19 move would eventually reverse into a "fresh water" move.....to the Great Lakes and mid-states (lake of the ozarks?). I continue to think that is a move we see (broadly) over the coming decade.

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

A low-key housing market that is surprisingly booming right now is Wisconsin.

Home values are up over 5.3% YoY (2nd in U.S.), and inventory is in short supply.

Why? It has to do with migration.

From 2005 to 2021, Wisconsin lost people every year.

But for the last four years, it's bounced back into positive territory, with the highest domestic migration rates in over two decades.

The question is: will it last?

Home values in Wisconsin are now getting overvalued, and a once-affordable housing market is becoming expensive.

Watch for shifts in migration and housing inventory in your local market.
https://t.co/pLvj0275rR

[Defrag @defrag]

@batabologna ha! yes.