dejviddd

[David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe @ASX__Trader]

You probably don’t own enough hard assets.

For years I’ve been talking about a major change happening in the global economy.

If you’re new to markets, let me explain what I mean in really simple terms.

For roughly 40 years, investors became used to a world of generally falling inflation and falling interest rates.

That environment was incredibly good for financial assets like shares and bonds.

But economic environments don’t last forever.

In 2021, I started warning that inflation and interest rates were likely to become a much bigger issue. At the time, that view wasn’t particularly popular.

Then inflation surged. Interest rates followed.

In 2023, I said inflation could cool for a period before becoming a problem again later in the cycle.

But here’s the bigger point.

I don’t believe this was simply one inflation spike that came and went. I believe we’re still relatively early in a much bigger change in the economic cycle.

This chart helps explain why this matters.

It shows the rolling 10-year return from US bonds after inflation.

In simple terms, it asks: after holding bonds for 10 years, did your investment actually increase what your money could buy?

As of July 2026, the annualised real return was around -5.14%.

That’s what we call a real return.

Say your investment makes 5%, but the cost of living rises 6%. The number in your account has gone up, but what that money can actually buy has gone backwards.

And this is where the conversation around property becomes really important too.

Look back at previous major inflationary periods, particularly the 1970s. Property didn’t necessarily need to collapse in dollar terms for investors to experience poor real returns.

Once you adjust for inflation, there were periods where property actually went backwards in purchasing-power terms.

That’s something I think gets completely lost in the property debate.

When I talk about being cautious on property, I’m not necessarily saying property has to crash.

It could fall. It could move sideways. It could even rise modestly in dollar terms.

The bigger question is:

Is it the best place to park your money for the next 10 years?

Because if a property rises 3% a year while inflation averages 4%, you’re getting wealthier on paper while actually losing purchasing power, before even considering the costs of owning the property.

That’s opportunity cost.

And it’s one reason I’ve spent so much time talking about hard assets and understanding which hard assets are at the right stage of their cycle.

Gold. Silver. Commodities. Energy. Property. Farmland and other genuinely scarce assets.

They’re not all the same, and they won’t all perform well at the same time.

Being a hard asset doesn’t automatically make something a good investment at any price.

Price matters. Timing matters. Valuation matters. Cycles matter.

The investment environment that worked for the last 40 years may not be the environment that works for the next 10 or 20.

Sometimes the biggest risk isn’t watching the number in your bank account or the value of your house fall.

It’s watching the number go up, but everything else goes up faster.

You can probably already relate to that.

Do you own enough hard assets, and just as importantly, do you own the right ones at the right time?

[Josh Barzon @JoshuaBarzon]

This will be in your child's history textbook by next fall.

[David Bird (ASX Trader) B.Ed, CFTe @ASX__Trader]

This is another great example of technical analysis leading the news.

The headlines will tell you gold got smashed at Jackson Hole. Inflation concerns, rate hike expectations, rising yields, a stronger dollar. All perfectly reasonable explanations.

But the chart was already warning us.

A few days ago, before the speech and before the headlines, I posted the gold chart and said:

“Running right into the Fib 500 zag zone. Let’s see how we react here.”

Then on Wednesday’s call with MtM students, I went deeper into it.

I explained that we were moving into the excess phase of this move. We’d already completed five waves up from the bottom and running into key resistance levels across the board. My expectation wasn’t that we’d simply retrace the final little leg higher.

I was preparing for a larger zag that could retrace thr excess phase of the entire move.

Then the speech arrives and gold gets smashed right at the technical area we were already watching.

You’d be surprised how often this happens.

Fed speeches, inflation data, employment numbers, earnings. So often the “news” arrives when price is sitting right at an important technical level.

That doesn’t mean TA tells us what someone is going to say. It means the chart can tell us where the risk is before the catalyst arrives.

And this is where education makes such a difference.

If you’re trading short term, you might be taking profits into that excess because you don’t want to sit through the zag.

If you’re swing or position trading, you might do absolutely nothing. You understand that pullbacks are part of the movement of the market. You don’t suddenly panic because you see a big red candle, just like you don’t get euphoric every time you see a big green one.

Different timeframes. Different decisions. Same chart.

Once you understand how markets move, days like this become a lot easier to handle.

Instead of reacting to the headline, you were already prepared for the move.

Inexperienced traders will blame their wrong decisions on the speech. Experienced traders were already long on precious metals from last month, sitting on phenomenal returns and were already prepared for a sell off here.

[Ed_NL @Crypto_Ed_NL]

#BTC video update

Bottom in?
Starting the next bull run?

Powered by @_WOO_X

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

This is a massive Cup and Handle
The mother of all C&Hs
It has broken out
Price is retesting
Price is going MUCH higher
Question is when of course
$SI_H

[Ran Neuner @cryptomanran]

Leaked footage of Trump and Netanyahu after the peace agreement was reached.

[Ed_NL @Crypto_Ed_NL]

#BTC video update
What to expect for the coming weeks, any changes?

Powered by @_WOO_X

[Bob Loukas 🗽 @BobLoukas]

Reload in Sept. #gold

[CryptoKnight @CryptoKnight60]

S&P 500 is at the door of the room no one's watching.

This zone will make or break portfolios this summer.

Act accordingly!
$SPX $SPY $ES_F
#StockMarket #Trading

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Something major going on in global interest rate markets. The market is basically telling central bankers that countries will need to pay much more for anyone to buy their soon-to-be-worthless debt $ZB_F $GBL_F
Follow The Factor Report for the latest trading thoughts https://t.co/Bq1PhjnRHa

[Morgan J. Freeman @mjfree]

🚨HOLY HELL!!!!

Trump was caught sneaking a peek at Xi Jinping's private notebook during a Beijing banquet while Xi stepped away!!!

Pls share far & wide!

[dejviddd @dejviddd1]

@RichardHeartWin It si your clone.. like in a Will Smith movie - Gemini Man.. ;)

[Ed_NL @Crypto_Ed_NL]

#BTC video update
Bounce soon?
Seeing several possibilities here, explained in the video.

Powered by @_WOO_X

[dejviddd @dejviddd1]

@elonmusk https://t.co/rq2DHyeuih

[dejviddd @dejviddd1]

https://t.co/rq2DHyeuih

[Crypto Waterman @Waterman_crypto]

Decoding “The World Ahead of Us 2026” - The Economist.

My prediction for the next 3 quarters in 2026 and what it is for the Global Market. $BTC $SPX $ETH

Q1

We have already see everything in Q1 playing out…

1. Look closely at the ship. The red flag symbol on the ship looks almost identical to Iran’s flag symbol. And the guy at the front is holding a barrel… an oil barrel?

Roughly 20% of the world's oil passes through Strait of Hormuz every day.

2. The tank represents war, Iran vs USA.

3. Modi following Trump. In February 2026, Trump and Modi announced a deal where the U.S. lowered tariffs on Indian goods.

4. Satellite Symbol: Elon Musk (via SpaceX's Starlink) has provided wifi access to users in Iran multiple times during government internet blackout.

Small details like medicine pills all across the picture could symbolize medical break through. We’ve got plenty medical breakthrough this past few months.

So what happens in Q2?

Tank is gone. That tells me a peace deal between Iran and the U.S. is likely coming in April.

Major Event: FIFA World Cup

1. A Red Broken USD Sign. Weak USD = global liquidity expansion. Risk on. This is when I see $BTC starts performing well, and alts start to outperform.

2. Red Money Printer Sign: The moment all crypto folks have been waiting for… Money printer go brrrrr.

3. Red Judge’s Gavel Sign: Old system broken, a transition to new system. Passing of Clarity Act?

4. Melting Ice Cube Sign: Flood? Thoughts?

5. Red Wine Glass Sign in Gematria = XRP Currency. I expect XRP to do well this cycle, check my previous post about it.

FIFA World Cup: Jun 11, 2026 – Jul 19, 2026. You will see blood in the market during this event: Check out this post from @yurystart https://t.co/CtFECb45Qx (He inspired me to dig deeper into The Economist)

Important Note: If you look at the middle of the photo, there is a chart. That should be $SPX. It shows a bearish Q1, then a bullish Q2.

Well… so far Q1 has been very bad. Expect Q2 to fully recover if the war stops.

Q3.

Tank again. Another war will break out in Q3. Checking from the 3 guys, I see Xi (China’s President), and the other two?

Q4.

1. The container ship firing at America’s birthday cake. A brain placed in between.

Feels like a metaphor for U.S. and China tension over Taiwan’s semiconductor chips. The remote control says it all… control the chips, then control AI. Control AI, control the world.

2. Someone big will be taken to prison.

Overall, I see 2026 as a bearish year, but I expect Q2 to perform well especially for crypto. I also have several major confluences lining up, which I may share later.

In order for a new world to emerge, the old system has to collapse. This year will likely be chaotic, but that process is necessary.

Nothing here is financial advice. This is just me having fun decoding :)

[𝐃𝐚𝐯𝐢𝐝 𝐙 🇷🇺 🇮🇪 @SMO_VZ]

BRILLIANT PIECE on IRAN !!!!!

Alon Mizrahi, an Israeli journalist, one of the most worthy Jews in the world:

"We are witnessing history. Iran, to everyone's surprise, is destroying American bases so thoroughly, on such a large scale, and so decisively that the world is not ready for this.

In 4 days, Iran has managed to expand its sphere of military dominance in the region. Iran has destroyed the most valuable and expensive military bases, property, and equipment in the entire world.

The American bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are among the largest military facilities in the entire world. These facilities have cost trillions of dollars over several decades to build. We are talking about the fact that the bulk of the military spending that has been made over more than 30 years has gone up in smoke.

We see radars costing hundreds of millions of dollars each being destroyed in an instant. We see entire military bases being abandoned and burned, looted, and destroyed. And I'm telling you, as far as I know, the U.S. has never suffered such destruction in its entire history, except perhaps for Pearl Harbor, but that was just one attack.

No enemy in a conventional war has ever done this to American military forces as Iran is doing right now. It's hard to believe. The military situation is so serious that censorship is blocking almost all new information about this war. If you've noticed, we're getting less and less information every day.

Thirty-five years ago, during the first Iraqi war, we were shown endless footage from Iraq. Back then, smart bombs and cameras were a novelty, but every night we were shown night-time footage. Now we hardly see any videos at all.

Understand this! Supposedly, this is the world's largest military power, with the world's largest air capabilities, and on the fourth day of the U.S. offensive, supposedly and supposedly breaking through Iranian defenses, we don't see any signs of American dominance in the Iranian sky. Where are all the video recordings of our planes flying over Tehran or any other part of Iran, for that matter?

American soldiers can't even dream of setting foot on Iranian soil. And to understand how desperate this war is, on the fourth day you're already hearing the most insane proposals and ideas from the Trump administration. They're proposing sending military escorts for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf. What are you even talking about! You want to send American ships into the zone of destruction of thousands of Iranian missiles? NOW no one can get through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iranians have been preparing for this for decades. They're flaunting the idea of arming Kurdish militias to invade Iran. What the hell are you talking about? Have you seen a map of Iran!? It seems the Trump administration has never seen a map of Iran! Do you know how vast it is? What does it mean to invade Iran!? Do you think a militia of 10,000 people could invade Iran!? Or even 50,000? Or 100,000? Iran will swallow them up.

The U.S. and Israel have already lost this war. The U.S. and Israel can kill millions of civilians in their homes. They have powerful bombs and can blow up buildings, but they won't win this war. Iran's military infrastructure and weaponry is deep underground all over IRAN. Neither the Americans nor, especially, the Israelis have any chance of reaching any of it. They're in deep shit.

They started something they have no chance of finishing. When this all ends, the U.S. will never return to West Asia. There will be no American presence in the Middle East. I'm telling you this now with certainty."

https://t.co/CtyakTZhmO

[Richard @ricwe123]

Jeffrey Sachs is spot on.....