Economic Analyst working in the financial services industry. Degree in Quantitative Finance & Financial Economics from James Madison University views are my own
Mortgage affordability remains under pressure.
A median-priced existing home with 20% down now carries an estimated ~$2,128/month P&I payment — still elevated since the 2022 rate shock and back above recent lows.
The problem: inflation pressure is reaccelerating, and markets are increasingly pricing the risk that the Fed’s next move is a hike, not a cut.
The pickup in hiring has been more or less offset by the decline in earnings growth, such that *aggregate* earnings growth (jobs x hours x hourly pay) is holding roughly steady at a bit over 4% (y/y). That's just ahead of where CPI inflation was in April.
The two sectors where we're likely seeing the biggest hits from AI (in terms of jobs) - Tech and Finance - continued to shed jobs in May.
Tech payrolls have been falling since November 2022 and Finance payrolls have been falling since last May
Wowee!!!!
Payrolls grew a massive +172k in May, well above expectations.
April also revised up +64k to +179k, and March revised up +29k to +214k.
The labor market appears to be motoring along after a slow 2025.
Take that recession talk off the table.
May labor force participation rate unchanged at 61.8% (blue line); rate for men unchanged up to 67.2% (orange line); rate for women lower at 56.9% (purple line)
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.
There were large upward revisions to March and April, raising the three- and six-month hiring averages to 188,000 and 92,000, respectively.
The U.S. recorded 181 space launches in 2025, nearly double China’s 93 launches and far ahead of Russia’s 17 🚀
This graphic, created in partnership with the @hinrichfdn, charts annual space launches by superpower from 1957 to 2025, highlighting how launch dominance is shaping the global space economy.
https://t.co/1x8HYHbHZr #hf09
After Friday's jobs report, remember:
There are 135 million private sector jobs.
25% of the labor market is recession-proof.
Another 59% barely moves.
Only 15.5% actually drives the cycle.
This chart shows the full breakdown, ranked by cyclicality:
🇺🇸 The Fed's Beige Book reported that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in 10 of 12 districts and employment remaining in the “low-hire, low-fire” mode, while inflation pressures intensified. Our Beige Book diffusion indicator rose to the highest level since early 2025.
Voters in seven states are heading to the polls on Tuesday, June 2nd to set the stage for the November general elections. If you are tracking the balance of power in Washington, tomorrow night will provide some massive clues.
Here is what you need to watch for:
🌴 California: The main event of the night. California uses a "top-two" primary, meaning the two candidates with the most votes advance to November, regardless of party. With control of the House on the line, these congressional races are absolutely critical.
🗽 New Jersey & 🌽 Iowa: Traditional partisan primaries that will lock in the final matchups for several highly competitive U.S. House seats.
🏜️ New Mexico, 🏔️ Montana, 🌻 South Dakota, & 🦅 Mississippi: Voters will be deciding on party nominees for their congressional delegations, state executive offices, and state legislatures.
Here is a look at today's @Kalshi most active election markets on @TheTerminal (so far):