Michael Denicola

Economic Analyst working in the financial services industry. Degree in Quantitative Finance & Financial Economics from James Madison University views are my own

[Michael Denicola @denicomc]

CPI Inflation Report:
Distribution Ridgeline Plot April 2026
Generated: May 24, 2026
One Month Annualized Percent Change

[Michael Denicola @denicomc]

CPI Inflation Report:
Distribution Ridgeline Plot March 2026
Generated: April 10, 2026
One Month Annualized Percent Change
https://t.co/b2pJO7oLAM

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

Mortgage affordability remains under pressure.

A median-priced existing home with 20% down now carries an estimated ~$2,128/month P&I payment — still elevated since the 2022 rate shock and back above recent lows.

The problem: inflation pressure is reaccelerating, and markets are increasingly pricing the risk that the Fed’s next move is a hike, not a cut.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

Here is employment in private education & health services vs. information (tech) since the release of ChatGPT

[Ben Casselman @bencasselman]

The pickup in hiring has been more or less offset by the decline in earnings growth, such that *aggregate* earnings growth (jobs x hours x hourly pay) is holding roughly steady at a bit over 4% (y/y). That's just ahead of where CPI inflation was in April.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

Fed Pricing Has Now Flipped From Cuts to Hikes in 2026:

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

Market pricing in quarter-point Fed rate hike by December

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

The two sectors where we're likely seeing the biggest hits from AI (in terms of jobs) - Tech and Finance - continued to shed jobs in May.

Tech payrolls have been falling since November 2022 and Finance payrolls have been falling since last May

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

Wowee!!!!

Payrolls grew a massive +172k in May, well above expectations.

April also revised up +64k to +179k, and March revised up +29k to +214k.

The labor market appears to be motoring along after a slow 2025.

Take that recession talk off the table.

[Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers]

It's worth watching where the jobs are being created.

[Liz Ann Sonders @LizAnnSonders]

May labor force participation rate unchanged at 61.8% (blue line); rate for men unchanged up to 67.2% (orange line); rate for women lower at 56.9% (purple line)

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

One of the more striking NFP charts: the three-month moving average of payroll gains.

[Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos]

The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held at 4.3%.

There were large upward revisions to March and April, raising the three- and six-month hiring averages to 188,000 and 92,000, respectively.

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

Karen Bass has advanced to November. Here's the @Kalshi market on who takes the second spot:

[Gregory Daco @GregDaco]

💡Layoff announcement justification, so far in 2026:

1️⃣ AI: 22%
2️⃣ Market and Economic Conditions: 18%
3️⃣ Closings: 17%
4️⃣ Restructuring: 13%
5️⃣ Contract Loss: 9%
6⃣ Cost-cutting: 8%

[Visual Capitalist @VisualCap]

The U.S. recorded 181 space launches in 2025, nearly double China’s 93 launches and far ahead of Russia’s 17 🚀

This graphic, created in partnership with the @hinrichfdn, charts annual space launches by superpower from 1957 to 2025, highlighting how launch dominance is shaping the global space economy.

https://t.co/1x8HYHbHZr #hf09

[Eric Basmajian @EPBResearch]

After Friday's jobs report, remember:

There are 135 million private sector jobs.

25% of the labor market is recession-proof.

Another 59% barely moves.

Only 15.5% actually drives the cycle.

This chart shows the full breakdown, ranked by cyclicality:

[Augur Infinity @AugurInfinity]

🇺🇸 The Fed's Beige Book reported that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace in 10 of 12 districts and employment remaining in the “low-hire, low-fire” mode, while inflation pressures intensified. Our Beige Book diffusion indicator rose to the highest level since early 2025.

[Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon]

S&P 500's forward 12m profit margin keeps spiking to new highs

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

Voters in seven states are heading to the polls on Tuesday, June 2nd to set the stage for the November general elections. If you are tracking the balance of power in Washington, tomorrow night will provide some massive clues.

Here is what you need to watch for:

🌴 California: The main event of the night. California uses a "top-two" primary, meaning the two candidates with the most votes advance to November, regardless of party. With control of the House on the line, these congressional races are absolutely critical.

🗽 New Jersey & 🌽 Iowa: Traditional partisan primaries that will lock in the final matchups for several highly competitive U.S. House seats.

🏜️ New Mexico, 🏔️ Montana, 🌻 South Dakota, & 🦅 Mississippi: Voters will be deciding on party nominees for their congressional delegations, state executive offices, and state legislatures.

Here is a look at today's @Kalshi most active election markets on @TheTerminal (so far):

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

JOLT Openings 1M Net Change:

[Michael McDonough @M_McDonough]

Not surprising to see the California primaries getting a ton of attention on prediction markets right now. Here's a look at @Kalshi: