Der Imster

An old war dog in High Yield and all that...

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario I think the US expansion is a reasonable option. Didn't realize European brands feature heavily there (behind US leader Quanex) - Deceuninck (BL), VEKA (GE), Rehau (GE). But I agree, prob a bit to big for them at this stage.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario Don't think we will see a material 2026 recovery overall, but disciplined w/c mgmt, flat sales, flat-ish margins, think we end up at 4.5-4.6x lev area end 2026. Good enough for a 8% B2 imho.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario Credit wise, I don't expect a great Q2 - yes they do have demonstrated passthrough re PVC, but I guess logistics etc will have a negative impact. That said, macro wise we see German building permissions recovering from a very low base, France stabilizing but bit weak, Spain up.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario Good point, AgChem struggling with high fertilizer cost/demand weakness, that may improve, but rest of biz ? Market just happy to finance everything at the moment.

[Der Imster @derimster]

Anyone looking at new CABB? Trying to figure out "real" EBITDA. On p. 27 of preso - Knapsack closure adds E10m in EBITDA, on the EBITDA to adj bridge (p.40) it says ~E25m addback for site closure provision. Shouldn't the PF bridge then be E107m reported EBITDA + E10m uplift?

[Der Imster @derimster]

@millarlr @CavaggioniMario I jokingly called this a "friendly amend-and-pretend". Some truth in it.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario Essentially you need a recovery in underlying, esp AgChem, maybe you can play this now in a post-Iran world - but lots of new issues today so doesn't feel like a #1 candidate.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario and wont generate cash for a while. Material difference between EBITDA and post-restruc costs EBITDA. The E10-15m benefit of Knapsack takes 30m to realize, with only 2028 contributing to cash. So you prob end around E85m cash EBITDA for next 2 years, 40 capex, 50 interest

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario PolarDC was the trailblazer, performed extraordinarily. There will be some FOMO. First liquid large Euro deal, ability to hedge via eq, and JPM good lead. More deal in this space to come, $ market feels a bit tapped out - need for CWRV of a good reception/perf on break.

[Der Imster @derimster]

@Abuhailmary @The_Analyst_Lab @CavaggioniMario @anchovycapital Also it's a biz that should exist. 30%+ mkt share in overhead systems and sun visors, bit lower in door panels. No OEM wants a single source issue either.

[Der Imster @derimster]

MERLLN - Merlin hires Kirkland amid 2027 refi pressure (9fin)

Bonds down 3-4pts...

[Der Imster @derimster]

@Abuhailmary @CavaggioniMario Banks unlikely to take a hit voluntarily, so bondholder would have to take the slack? Unless you get that coup + principal closer to 7%, net interest won't drop enough (considering 8% EBITDA - 5% Capex = net pre-tax pre-int UFCF of 100/110m)?

[Der Imster @derimster]

@Abuhailmary @CavaggioniMario Not to close to the situation anymore - but say 3.5bn turnover @ 8% real EBITDA = E275m. Take 3.5x distressed multiple = E950m (I guess that's close to Mario's estimate). So yeah you got say 70%ish coverage. However, re A&E - I think would be more like 40% haircut?

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario If you check https://t.co/rlVQ56fgss that is reflected in actual market pricing. H200 pricing per h (i.e. mostly training load) roundtripped. B200 (the inferemce workhorse) up up and away...

[Der Imster @derimster]

@vctrjmnz @CavaggioniMario Well you could marry a Norwegian, ultimate hedge, at least you got a fully funded pension plan with these juicy oil earnings!

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario CRWV 9.25 '31 still at OAS+450, means 150 bp pickup. Crusoe risk a bit harder to quantify but you also 1.5y curve on coreweave. So still okay imho, just less juice

[Der Imster @derimster]

@CavaggioniMario Same view. Full energy price passthrough is nice to have, think some bottlenecks though with Statnet, so risk of expansion delay. Need to dig into contract structure. Also, HIG prob wants a debut deal that goes well, as this won't be the last data centre deal for Europe.

[Der Imster @derimster]

Interesting new Nordic HY deal - PolarDC - E750m 4Y sen sec, Norwegian data center developer with CoreWeave and Crusoe as clients. Finally the US wave of deals coming over to Europe.