LBO_Guy

Pushing the limits of Microsoft Excel.

[L.Bernaldo de Quirós @BernaldoDQuiros]

1/10 GIRO BRUTAL EN EL SUMARIO. Los nuevos informes de la UCO sobre las "cloacas" del caso Koldo-Leire desvelan una maniobra de fontanería política sin precedentes. El nuevo objetivo de la trama: fabricar pruebas contra Repsol y la propia cúpula de la UCO. Abro hilo

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

@CavaggioniMario Absolutely NOT

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Memory guys to pay HALF of Korea country debt in 3 years via taxes😲

[Marco De Donno @stonksandgoats]

@citrini What it means for the Korean economy and people when Samsung and SK Hynix are about to pay $430 BILLION in taxes in FY26-28.

That's half the Korean public debt.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

@JackFarley96 I do believe $GOOG is good paper. However, the rest is mostly not. Such selling at the index level to fund new issuance with no buybacks anymore due to massive capex turns the 3-4% buyback tailwind into a 5% selling headwind, which will put downward pressure on prices.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

THE WALL OF SUPPLY
Start to hear some ppl comenting on the wall of supply (Paul T Jones being one of the early ones), which usually puts downward pressure on index as the market needs to digest all the new supply. However, I see little people talking about the magnitudes so I just did a funny exercise: look at the past.

The 2020-21 supply, which signaled the market top was around $385bn in total (2020+2021 including IPOs + SPACs). This year, we are mid-year and already did/announced around $400bn !!! Plus, you have massive debt issuance, so supply scale is something we've never seen in history!

Funny times.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

@capexterry 🤔
https://t.co/AabdLt9FOA

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

THE WALL OF SUPPLY
Start to hear some ppl comenting on the wall of supply (Paul T Jones being one of the early ones), which usually puts downward pressure on index as the market needs to digest all the new supply. However, I see little people talking about the magnitudes so I just did a funny exercise: look at the past.

The 2020-21 supply, which signaled the market top was around $385bn in total (2020+2021 including IPOs + SPACs). This year, we are mid-year and already did/announced around $400bn !!! Plus, you have massive debt issuance, so supply scale is something we've never seen in history!

Funny times.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Well, well, well. Isn't that a steal?
CoreWeave IPO IB fees were around 2.8% which netted IB banks 42M on $1.5bn raised. Following a similar fee structure for SpaceX would have netted around $2.25bn to investment banks (given they plan to raise 80bn). However, they are planning on a cap at $500m total? Jeezz, I thought caps were only for lawyers.

https://t.co/HShWyvo1mt

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

What winning an SpaceX IPO could look like (based on CoreWeave numbers)👇

Raising $50bn at 2.8% could bring Investment Banks $1.4bn in fees and up to $400m to the lead coordinator!!

If you are not the lead underwriter you are done for 2026 league tables.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

@InvestingPersp1 The point is that even with massive money printing and helicopter money the total supply for 2020 AND 2021 was around $385bn. We've know done 400bn and we're not through half of 2026 yet!!
Btw, M2 increased by +40% in 2020/21 and has only increased by 6% since then.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

THE WALL OF SUPPLY
Start to hear some ppl comenting on the wall of supply (Paul T Jones being one of the early ones), which usually puts downward pressure on index as the market needs to digest all the new supply. However, I see little people talking about the magnitudes so I just did a funny exercise: look at the past.

The 2020-21 supply, which signaled the market top was around $385bn in total (2020+2021 including IPOs + SPACs). This year, we are mid-year and already did/announced around $400bn !!! Plus, you have massive debt issuance, so supply scale is something we've never seen in history!

Funny times.

[WSJ Tech @WSJTech]

Google parent Alphabet on Monday announced a plan to issue $80 billion in equity to finance enormous capital expenditures tied to the artificial intelligence race https://t.co/jACo6ztKNK

[τop τick crypτo 📁 🤖🧠 @toptickcrypto]

“The memory trade can’t keep going because the hyperscalers can’t spend more than 100% of cash flow”

[Jerry Capital @JerryCap]

Google equity raise summarized.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

@Robertocuell21 Tengo algo como hedge si

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Porque no ha subido el petroleo en estos meses con Hormuz cerrado mas alla de los $100-110? Pues porque no falta petroleo en el mercado fisico (de momento) porque los americanos y los chinos estan tirando de inventarios como locos.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Los chinos se comen a los fabricantes de volumen en España (y lo iran haciendo en el resto de europa).

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

Pretty nice chart from GS.

$NVDA , $MU , $GOOG and $SNDK have contributed 43% of SP500 EPS growth for 2026!! Funny to see that top 10 names weight exactly the same as their EPS contribution to index.
On another note, SP500 EPS estimates are up 15% ytd with index up 10%, so the index has actually de-risked a bit since the start of the year.

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

GAG™️ alert, courtesy of Shrubstack

[Jaime de Olano @jaimedeolano]

¡Sánchez, trilero!

Si al salario medio bruto le aplicas..
Cotizaciones Seguridad Social: +387€ (+25,4%)
IRPF: +1.541€ (+47,3%)
IPC (subida precios): +19,7%
Resultado: El salario medio ha perdido -159€ de poder adquisitivo

¡Son una banda peligrosa, también para tu bolsillo!

[modest proposal @modestproposal1]

Loeb's early letters are now legendary but for my money nothing will ever beat the SFBC earnings call. The whole thing was amazing but the "and I use the term loosely" is just chef's kiss.

[LBO_Guy @The_Analyst_Lab]

This is disgusting

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

President Trump is undefeated in the stock market.

On May 8th, President Trump told everyone to "go out and buy a Dell."

19 days later, on May 27th, Dell was awarded a $9.7B contract with the US Pentagon.

Today, Dell, $DELL, reported stronger than expected earnings and the stock surged +30%.

Dell's stock is now up +80% since May 8th, adding +$120 BILLION in market cap.

Truly unprecedented.

[NSF - NASASpaceflight.com @NASASpaceflight]

Blue Origin's New Glenn just blew up at LC-36 while attempting to Static Fire ahead of NG-4.

https://t.co/tANS0dWyIH