Saurabh Deswal

Most people use statistics like a drunk man uses a lamppost; more for support than illumination

[Saurabh Deswal @deswal83]

#NewProfilePic

[Saurabh Deswal @deswal83]

@qatarairways Is QR0714 cancelled too? The site still shows it is scheduled. I am in austin and need to go to houston. I dont want to make the trip among so much uncertainty. How can I reschedule for later? @qrsupport

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

@Newaiworld_ it's down 200 lines now, i realized i was *still* overcomplicating things. but it's past midnight and i'm calling it here now.

[NewAIWorld @Newaiworld_]

@karpathy The entire AI industry is just 243 lines of math and a trillion dollars of marketing

[Samsara @Samsara]

From the early hours to the final mile, our customers kept the world moving in 2025 — and the impact speaks for itself.

See how Samsara customers made 2025 count and how they’re carrying that momentum forward: https://t.co/068nNm4ag3

#SamsaraYearinReview

[non aesthetic things @PicturesFoIder]

Paper boy in India with 17 years of experience.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

My pleasure to come on Dwarkesh last week, I thought the questions and conversation were really good.

I re-watched the pod just now too. First of all, yes I know, and I'm sorry that I speak so fast :). It's to my detriment because sometimes my speaking thread out-executes my thinking thread, so I think I botched a few explanations due to that, and sometimes I was also nervous that I'm going too much on a tangent or too deep into something relatively spurious. Anyway, a few notes/pointers:

AGI timelines. My comments on AGI timelines looks to be the most trending part of the early response. This is the "decade of agents" is a reference to this earlier tweet https://t.co/NiSn6jftqq Basically my AI timelines are about 5-10X pessimistic w.r.t. what you'll find in your neighborhood SF AI house party or on your twitter timeline, but still quite optimistic w.r.t. a rising tide of AI deniers and skeptics. The apparent conflict is not: imo we simultaneously 1) saw a huge amount of progress in recent years with LLMs while 2) there is still a lot of work remaining (grunt work, integration work, sensors and actuators to the physical world, societal work, safety and security work (jailbreaks, poisoning, etc.)) and also research to get done before we have an entity that you'd prefer to hire over a person for an arbitrary job in the world. I think that overall, 10 years should otherwise be a very bullish timeline for AGI, it's only in contrast to present hype that it doesn't feel that way.

Animals vs Ghosts. My earlier writeup on Sutton's podcast https://t.co/rSp1noyGBr . I am suspicious that there is a single simple algorithm you can let loose on the world and it learns everything from scratch. If someone builds such a thing, I will be wrong and it will be the most incredible breakthrough in AI. In my mind, animals are not an example of this at all - they are prepackaged with a ton of intelligence by evolution and the learning they do is quite minimal overall (example: Zebra at birth). Putting our engineering hats on, we're not going to redo evolution. But with LLMs we have stumbled by an alternative approach to "prepackage" a ton of intelligence in a neural network - not by evolution, but by predicting the next token over the internet. This approach leads to a different kind of entity in the intelligence space. Distinct from animals, more like ghosts or spirits. But we can (and should) make them more animal like over time and in some ways that's what a lot of frontier work is about.

On RL. I've critiqued RL a few times already, e.g. https://t.co/mYrMFVdVDW . First, you're "sucking supervision through a straw", so I think the signal/flop is very bad. RL is also very noisy because a completion might have lots of errors that might get encourages (if you happen to stumble to the right answer), and conversely brilliant insight tokens that might get discouraged (if you happen to screw up later). Process supervision and LLM judges have issues too. I think we'll see alternative learning paradigms. I am long "agentic interaction" but short "reinforcement learning" https://t.co/2L7FiaoKsw. I've seen a number of papers pop up recently that are imo barking up the right tree along the lines of what I called "system prompt learning" https://t.co/df5mJDdN3C , but I think there is also a gap between ideas on arxiv and actual, at scale implementation at an LLM frontier lab that works in a general way. I am overall quite optimistic that we'll see good progress on this dimension of remaining work quite soon, and e.g. I'd even say ChatGPT memory and so on are primordial deployed examples of new learning paradigms.

Cognitive core. My earlier post on "cognitive core": https://t.co/q2s1ihGy0T , the idea of stripping down LLMs, of making it harder for them to memorize, or actively stripping away their memory, to make them better at generalization. Otherwise they lean too hard on what they've memorized. Humans can't memorize so easily, which now looks more like a feature than a bug by contrast. Maybe the inability to memorize is a kind of regularization. Also my post from a while back on how the trend in model size is "backwards" and why "the models have to first get larger before they can get smaller" https://t.co/6k0FZRGXsb

Time travel to Yann LeCun 1989. This is the post that I did a very hasty/bad job of describing on the pod: https://t.co/fQgqaXPyp6 . Basically - how much could you improve Yann LeCun's results with the knowledge of 33 years of algorithmic progress? How constrained were the results by each of algorithms, data, and compute? Case study there of.

nanochat. My end-to-end implementation of the ChatGPT training/inference pipeline (the bare essentials) https://t.co/SIetgyoKWN

On LLM agents. My critique of the industry is more in overshooting the tooling w.r.t. present capability. I live in what I view as an intermediate world where I want to collaborate with LLMs and where our pros/cons are matched up. The industry lives in a future where fully autonomous entities collaborate in parallel to write all the code and humans are useless. For example, I don't want an Agent that goes off for 20 minutes and comes back with 1,000 lines of code. I certainly don't feel ready to supervise a team of 10 of them. I'd like to go in chunks that I can keep in my head, where an LLM explains the code that it is writing. I'd like it to prove to me that what it did is correct, I want it to pull the API docs and show me that it used things correctly. I want it to make fewer assumptions and ask/collaborate with me when not sure about something. I want to learn along the way and become better as a programmer, not just get served mountains of code that I'm told works. I just think the tools should be more realistic w.r.t. their capability and how they fit into the industry today, and I fear that if this isn't done well we might end up with mountains of slop accumulating across software, and an increase in vulnerabilities, security breaches and etc. https://t.co/8556ESSpyY

Job automation. How the radiologists are doing great https://t.co/FVUI872dkD and what jobs are more susceptible to automation and why.

Physics. Children should learn physics in early education not because they go on to do physics, but because it is the subject that best boots up a brain. Physicists are the intellectual embryonic stem cell https://t.co/p72Elk8lPV I have a longer post that has been half-written in my drafts for ~year, which I hope to finish soon.

Thanks again Dwarkesh for having me over!

[Saurabh Deswal @deswal83]

@UtdFaithfuls Just needs Amad to cross more balls across the box. He could have easily scored 2 goals today. Bad judgement from amad.

[Carl Vellotti 🥞 @carlvellotti]

an epic battle between the Growth PM and Legal

[chittaranjan @i_CHITTARANJAN1]

ed sheeran & arijit singh's 'sapphire' is the best thing on the internet today.

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

Lets freaking go: ‘This is revolutionary!’: Breakthrough cholesterol treatment can cut levels by 69% after one dose

Countless people die from cardiovascular diseases. The biggest problem: heart attacks due to calcified arteries.

Without exaggeration, this could be over forever with a single injection!

Let me explain how it works:

[Wholesome Side of 𝕏 @itsme_urstruly]

This is hilarious 🤣🤣

[Ryan Els @RyanEls4]

Now he has gone too far 😳

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

How to digitalize a camera film

[UF @UtdFaithfuls]

This is what it's all about. ❤️

[The Founders' Tribune @foundertribune]

Steve Jobs and "Nice CEOs" by @pmarca

[Bojan Tunguz @tunguz]

Exactly thirty years ago these three movies were in the theaters at the same time.

[Interesting AF @interesting_aIl]

She lifted over 700 pounds 🤯

[Saurabh Deswal @deswal83]

@paddypower That did not age well :P

[Joe Pompliano @JoePompliano]

This is a WILD stat 😳

(h/t @kendallbaker)