devindrome

Mississippian in exile. UMiss and UGA alumnus. PhD student @ugahistory

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@CarlLately @aseitzwald She outran Trump by at least 7 points in 2020. She was never going to be an easy out and that’s even more true now that Dems have serious candidate issues in Maine

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@JNatt1311 One of the coolest stadiums in the U.S. is Providence park. it only holds ~25k but it’s a beautiful renovation of a century-old baseball stadium

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@Stallion2011 @flameosumeet It’s a lot less that Klinsmann is a good manager and a lot more that those who have followed him have been bad managers

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@LogoUzi @MassJumbo The big deep-south cities have the best-supported MLS teams. Atlanta sells out an NFL stadium a couple times per year. Soccer fandom is probably weakest in the rural South and Midwest

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@Emiva47 @Uvejeje Chattanooga está en Tennessee como Toledo está en Castilla-La Mancha a pesar de estar a minutos de Madrid

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@GayBearRes Counting net jobs I’m sure. If you lose 1M jobs and 60% of them belong to men and then you gain 1.3M jobs and only 40% of them go to men then women would actually account for more than 100% of the net job growth. They would have gained 380k of the 300k net jobs created

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@rodrigo91213801 @Jake_W If college whites move 13 points to the left, then Asians and Hispanics are moving 20

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@rodrigo91213801 @Jake_W What keeps this race tight in this scenario is the assumption that Hispanic and Asian voters don’t move from 2020, when in reality these are the most likely groups to shift the furthest proportionally

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@garlicksauce @JonathanCohn I’d actually argue that Maine is decently representative of New England’s political culture. Lots of white working-class voters. Many rural, high school-ed. Probably the least politically correct white Dems still in the coalition. NH, VT, and rural MA look similar too

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@NickyScatz Polls exist and they don’t even have to be particularly accurate to provide useful data

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@WalkerAmerica America is older as a nation-state than both Italy and Germany

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@GTRecruitBuzz If white voters are 60% of the vote and their margin moves 5 points left, then they would be responsible for a little more of the shift than black voters alone but not the sum of all minority voters.

Essentially I’m arguing that causation is something like 33/30/37

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@GTRecruitBuzz A 1% increase in the black proportion of the vote is essentially a 2% swing in the Dem vote margin. Other minority groups have grown by what, 3-4%? But those groups are more like 60-40 Dem voters so the margin swing is smaller. White voters have also moved left but not far

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@GTRecruitBuzz I made a very clear, two part argument that you insist on misreading. I have annotated the quote below for your benefit:

“The biggest driver of change is that (1) Georgia is becoming less white—and (2) more black, especially”

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@GTRecruitBuzz @Jake_W I said that the biggest driver of change is that Georgia is “becoming less white” You’re straw-manning me here

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@Jake_W You folks keep projecting a November environment in which the Iran war has ended and gas prices have gone back to normal. I don’t think that’s impossible but it’s certainly less likely than fundamentals getting worse for GOP between now and then

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@GTRecruitBuzz @Jake_W My position leaves room for nuance. I never claimed mono-causality

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@VerumVulnero1 Look I’m glad that I don’t live in Maine and don’t have to vote for Graham Platner but (barring a much worse scandal) he’s the only dem who can win the race in Maine at this point

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@GTRecruitBuzz @Jake_W That’s pretty significant considering both the nature of the growth (highly-educated movers) and the fact that black voters break about 90-10 for Dems. The growth in other groups raises the ceiling for Dems while bvap growth raises the floor