@jessepollak@base Very impressive growth!
What’s the best way to track active users, transaction volume and stablecoin transfer volume on base? Artemis? Allium?
@michaellistman@GRQ88 That makes sense! Do you take into account (or care much about) the decay in volatility products due to contango? Does your calculus change significantly when VIX futures are in backwardation like they are now?
@michaellistman "This only improves (for a short vol trader) with continued high realized vol"
How come? Given the backwardation of the front months, isn't the value of the front months increasing with continued realized high Vol as they converge towards spot?
The IMF just published a paper on Bitcoin cross-border flows, and here are three major takeaways.👇
1.) The study provides evidence that increased Bitcoin activity occurs as investors move away from risk assets and supports the findings of other studies that Bitcoin can be used to hedge global uncertainty.
"An increase in the VIX is associated with higher Chainalysis inflows and outflows. This significant, positive response may reflect increased activity via the Bitcoin market as investors move away from risk assets."
This study shows that contrary to popular belief, individuals around the globe are treating Bitcoin as a "risk-off" asset rather than a risky one.
2.) The study concludes that people appear to be turning to Bitcoin to flee instability in their local economies and currencies and to circumvent capital controls.
"We contribute to this debate by providing cross-country panel evidence that off-chain cross-border outflows are positively correlated with a Bitcoin parallel premium, which we interpret as a broader proxy for exchange rate pressures, reflecting macroeconomic imbalances."
"An increase in the parallel premium is associated with higher LocalBitcoins outflows. This finding indicates that Bitcoin may be used to circumvent capital controls."
So people appear to be using Bitcoin just as it was intended to be used, as censorship-resistant money that can protect them from currency instability and government censorship/seizure. Nice.
3.) The findings highlight that Bitcoin flows are typically larger in emerging and developing markets, like Argentina and Venezuela, compared to advanced economies with sophisticated financial markets.
Countries with the largest Bitcoin inflows: Seychelles, Venezuela, Moldova, Venezuela, Nigeria, Central African Republic.
One possible explanation for the high inflows in countries like Seychelles and Moldova is the low taxes and light-touch regulations that have attracted crypto exchanges to their shores.
However, these countries are notable because many of them have high rates of currency debasement and economic instability, indicating that people are turning to Bitcoin as a safe haven asset.
Source: https://t.co/Uv7e5IRfC5
I'm not one to fanboy over software but @loops is actually the best platform that I've ever used for building out transactional and marketing emails campaigns.
I have PTSD from years of using Sendgrid and Twilio and this is how I always imagined how easy it should be
@Matt_Hougan Great insights, #4 is key and will only grow as a theme over time.
For #3 I'm curious what their response would be if you asked "How to value {the Euro} given its lack of cash flows" or other currencies. Or Gold. Many financial instruments are not valued based on cash flows NPV
@NickADobos Beast! This would be so good as a personal brainstorm/debate partner who tracks past conversations and context. Thanks for pushing this out so quickly
@NotChaseColeman@hyogo_tasuke Price of USDC would go up. e.g. to 1.01
Yes Binance would redeem at par (reducing supply) but other market participants would convert USD to USDC to gain the spread. USDC doesn't necessarily go to 0.
MC implosion this yr has many drivers not just challenged USDT redemption