David Gold

Atmospheric Scientist/AI Professional/Certified Consulting Meteorologist

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

Coming soon: a brand new GSDM website.

I know that some of you were users of the now defunct GSDM website which had replicated the original ESRL-hosted site where you could access the GWO, Hovmollers of AAM anomalies and its forcings (budget terms). I have rebuilt this from scratch using the new CORe data set. The v2.0 site will be MUCH richer, offering AAM analogs, LIM forecasts, regional contributions for AAM (as well as TauM), wind vector maps highlighting which wind perturbations are most strongly contributing to the zonal mean structures, detailed guidance on how to interpret the data and more! The idea is to better enable users to connect diagnosis of the general circulation to what it means for the forecast. A few sample plots below to whet the appetite!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@webberweather Yes. The monster Andes mountain torque event transferred momentum into the S Atlantic jet and the ongoing MJO event set up the inter-hemispheric waveguide architecture that energized the Asia-Pacific jet, culminating in its extension.

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@rushtropicalwx It’s reflecting the strong emergent El Niño event, living in the “Pacific phases”. The GWO is doing the same thing, beginning what looks to be a substantial orbit in the high AAM side of the attractor.

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@SeanSchofer @JimCantore Good lord!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@ScottAspinall5 Congrats, man. Amazing shot and a great forecast!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@tknep3 Indeed

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@PaulRoundy1 @ValerioCapraro @HSJSpeaks I’ve never been more productive in my life thanks to these models

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@StrmchsrHunterF That storm has a direct tap to the MT parcels. The areas farther west don’t.

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@a_dose_of_wx Yikes. The lower tropospheric thermo is atrocious.

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@NickKrasz_Wx Was there!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@a_dose_of_wx That’s nice but TBH I’m glad I didn’t fork out the cash to fly to Denver this AM as originally planned.

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

A 60F dewpoint in Limon at 15Z? To quote @ReedTimmerUSA, good heavens me!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

A moist surface-based airmass is in place as far west as the CO/KS border and this moisture should be drawn westward as pressures fall in the lee in response to increasing westerlies aloft over the Rockies. This will yield moderate to very unstable vertical stratification over the high plains and numerous storms will develop along and near the orographically favored initiation regions. I believe one or two significant supercells will develop over the Palmer Divide by mid-late afternoon.

Very large hail is the dominant severe hazard but I would expect at least a couple of tornadoes. This seems most likely after 0z as the LLJ kicks in but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a tank got going and managed to move sufficiently off hodograph to go nuts. With CINH in place outside of the CI locations, storm structure should be the star of the show and I would not be surprised to see SOTY today for those chasers that can make it. Wish I were there.

Farther east along an effective warm front, a cluster of significant severe storms are likely to develop and these may have even higher tornado potential as they tap rich tropical moisture. I admit that I’d be carefully monitoring both targets in the AM. This set up reminds me a bit of June 11, 2010!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@WickyDubs2 Try the Palmer Divide

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@WxFront Such an impressive app

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@WxZachary Beautiful creatures!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@BackpirchCrew I was there!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@tornadopaigeyy @BryceShelton01 @MaxVelocityWX @WxFront Very pretty!

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@PappenheimWx 😮

[David Gold @dgoldweather]

@jnmet Yep. Not surprisingly, the MJO trajectories are now very strongly skewed towards El Niño phases. That probably continues through much of summer.