capGoblin

i code @Qiro_Finance | 🏆 8x Web3 Hackathons | 🐧i use arch, btw | Cooking in Web3xAI

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@ajs6888 soo true and the competition gonna be at frontier level

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

🚨 Upcoming Models: Expected/Rumoured Dates (as of July 21)

Open Models:
> GLM-5.5 → August (likely open-weight, >1T params, 1M context, coding/agent focused)
> DeepSeek V4 GA → Late July (strong coding & agent performance)
> MiniMax M3 Pro / M3.1 → August (rumoured ~3T, Fable-level)

Closed Models:
> Gemini 3.5 Pro → Late July / August (delayed from July 17 target, 2M context rumoured)
> Claude Opus 5 → July 20-21 or end of July (big step up toward Fable 5 level)
> GPT-6 / GPT-5.7 → August (1.5M+ context, new foundation, major agentic gains)
> Grok 2T one → August (training finishing this month) > Claude Fable 5.1 → Expected soon

August is looking stacked🔥
Which one you most excited about?

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

the new “Dreaming V3” memory system is noticeably better. instead of just saving random notes when you tell it to remember something, it’s pulling context from all your past chats in the background and keeping it updated over time.

so it stops doing dumb shit like still thinking you’re on a trip weeks even after you got back.

the memory summary where we can actually see/edit what it knows about you. which beautifully summarized abt things i did years ago to things i did like yesterday. crazy.

heres the full post: https://t.co/01ZGxpGtDZ

[Sam Altman @sama]

it is good now!

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

source: trust me bro😉

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@itsnishu something around memory layer, will post abt it soon

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@adxtyahq kimi looks very much close to actual Crossy Road than opus that too at this price!? man literally no reason to use opus anymore

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@Kimi_Moonshot Anthropic cut existing users usage to 50%, when they hit same problem back in April. But Moonshot cut their revenue. Classic!!!

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@ajs6888 it is, gonna be more crazy in upcoming weeks as more open models abt to drop

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

gentle reminder:

top 10 on OpenRouter this week:
- first 7 are chinese open models
- and only last 3 are claude/closed models

this week has been the start of whole new narrative: frontier open models

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@deekshasnayak Open models killin it indeed

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@kimmonismus their only options

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

so anthropic has three options:

1. ship opus 5 → underperforms chinese models on day 1
2. delay opus 5 → gives more chinese labs to catch up
3. skip opus 5 and release next fable → the US regulations are probably gonna make this harder

no matter which one they pick, its not looking good. only way they can keep up is to accelerate R&D and release 10x faster.

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@Alibaba_Qwen summary what we been thro so far

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

Qwen launching 2.4T parameter model
Minimax launching 2.7-trillion-parameter model
Kimi already launched 2.8T parameter model

WE OFFICIALLY almost CLOSED THE GAP BETWEEN CLOSED AND OPEN MODELS at frontier lvl intelligence

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@Pseudo_Sid26 Nice examples

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

i think minimax offers the best usage per intelligence. that no other model providers currently do. you mostly never hit your 5hr/weekly limits.

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@Kimi_Moonshot

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

so anthropic has three options:

1. ship opus 5 → underperforms chinese models on day 1
2. delay opus 5 → gives more chinese labs to catch up
3. skip opus 5 and release next fable → the US regulations are probably gonna make this harder

no matter which one they pick, its not looking good. only way they can keep up is to accelerate R&D and release 10x faster.

[Chubby♨️ @kimmonismus]

2025 was the calm before the storm. 2026 is when the storm breaks. The AI ​​game has changed forever. Let me explain.

Let’s take a moment to acknowledge what is happening right now:

Qwen-3.8-Max reportedly outperforms GPT-5.6 Sol and trails Fable 5 by only a narrow margin. I know this still needs to be verified, but let’s assume for the sake of argument that it is true. If so, it would mean that China has effectively caught up with the United States. Kimi K3 has already demonstrated that the former six to eight month gap behind the leading US frontier labs no longer exists. China continues to embrace open source and open model weights, increasing the competitive pressure on US frontier labs.

-DeepSeek V4 GA is on the verge of release. It is expected to be highly competitive on price, and there is every reason to hope that its performance will improve as well.

-Minimax M3 Pro is also expected soon and will likely perform at a level comparable to Qwen-3.8-Max. That would add yet another open model capable of competing at the very top.

-GLM 5.3 or 5.5 is also expected in the near future. Qwen, GLM, and Kimi are now clearly in a race to see who can ship the strongest models. That makes GLM another potential contender that could move ahead of the US frontier labs and close the remaining gap to Fable 5.

In the United States, the industry is currently waiting for Gemini 3.5 Pro, which has already been delayed multiple times, as well as Opus 5 and Fable 5.1. GPT-6 is also expected in the near future as a new model built on a new pretraining run. The concern, however, is that Opus 5 may underperform relative to expectations! If open source Chinese models are already ahead of Opus 5 while sitting only slightly behind Fable 5, it raises the question of how Opus 5 is supposed to remain competitive. By definition, it would rank below Fable 5, making it difficult to outperform the latest Chinese models, especially since those are already more attractive from a pricing perspective. So either Opus 5 will be released *after* a Fable 5 update (Fable 5.5) *or* it will effectively underperform compared to Chinese models. Because Opus 5 will not be better than Fable.

Taken together, the pressure on US frontier labs is increasing dramatically. They are being forced to publish faster, release faster, and accelerate research and development even further. At the same time, tighter US regulation does nothing to make that challenge easier.

I do not think many people fully appreciate how quickly the balance is shifting or how close Chinese frontier labs have come to the state of the art despite ongoing export restrictions and embargoes. On pricing, they are already at least on par with their US counterparts, if not ahead. (Yes, I am aware of the argument that GPT-5.6 is more token-efficient than Kimi K3. At the same time, Kimi K3 is less expensive, which leaves the two models broadly comparable in overall cost.) Meanwhile, the debate over open source is becoming more intense in the United States, whereas China currently has little incentive to abandon open models in favor of closed ones.

The next few weeks are going to be extraordinary. Competitive pressure is forcing an acceleration of development whether anyone wants it or not. We are about to see release after release. Keeping up will become increasingly difficult. Competition will continue to fuel even faster progress. Neither of the two major blocs can afford to fall behind. The rivalry between the United States and China is driving a pace of acceleration unlike anything we have seen before.

2025 was the calm before the storm.

2026 is when the storm breaks.

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@AdamHoltererer @Alibaba_Qwen hahaha ha

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

Qwen launching 2.4T parameter model
Minimax launching 2.7-trillion-parameter model
Kimi already launched 2.8T parameter model

WE OFFICIALLY almost CLOSED THE GAP BETWEEN CLOSED AND OPEN MODELS at frontier lvl intelligence

[Qwen @Alibaba_Qwen]

Qwen3.8 is launching and going open-weight soon!🌐

With a massive 2.4T parameters, this model is continuously evolving. We believe it’s one of the most powerful model available today, compatible to leading frontier AI models , second only to Fable 5.

You don't have to wait to test it. Just now, the Qwen3.8-Max-Preview made its debut on Alibaba’s Token Plan, Qoder, and QoderWork. Be among the very first to try it out.

Can't wait to hear what you build. Stay tuned! 🚀 

Token Plan
international：https://t.co/YRvcGdB9Bv
China：https://t.co/PKMUNwUuRp

[capGoblin @dharshan_tw]

@Alibaba_Qwen