Things I believe about crypto summer '24 (will look back in a year and see if I'm totally wrong):
* All of you are not bullish enough.
* Retail should not participate in early, seed stage deals. They don't have the risk tolerance and unable to weather technical issues like non-delivery of tokens.
* Conversely, VCs very important to the seed stage landscape, but entirely responsible for the situation we're in now. Much like MMs, these people are not your friends and you shouldn't be blindly trusting them (no one is, you're alone, good luck!).
* The incentive of every large, centralized crypto exchange is regulatory capture.
* Kalshi losing to Polymarket by following the rules and getting CFTC regulated is one of the more interesting things no one is talking about. The better product wins, and give people what they want.
* We'll look back at the airdrop meta as a grand embarrassment. I've spilled too much ink on this, so read early tweets or ask @grok.
* Conversely, 2025 will be the return of the sale (fixed, auction, tiered, node) as the preferred form of launch. @CoinList is the most credible here.
* KOLs are likely not great for the industry and a temporary dislocation. I'm hopeful that @echodotxyz can remove (or fix) this cancer, but they're early.
* Chain abstraction is the final frontier before global, decentralized spot liquidity aka Binance 2.0 is solved. Everything happening there is very important.
* Solver networks are intellectually interesting and another important trend.
* L2s fragment liquidity, ideology and community. Aggregation could be an interesting solution here.
* Speculation, memecoins, and the rest are actually good. Some of you don't know how to have fun. Yes we should ruthlessly call out rugs and name and shame.
* A long time horizon and phenomenal execution is what it takes to separate a breakout product vs something mediocre. @JupiterExchange@weremeow most recent example of this.
* A lot of the consumer social experiments are likely flashes in the pan despite what some talking heads want you to believe. Study josh elman. Study alex zhu.
* All of crypto and AI isn't a grift, but a lot of it is. Today I was proven wrong on decentralized training, so I'm more hopeful than ever.
* On-chain perps are increasingly important for long tail assets and DOA for anything with a real bid/volume. Centralized players will continue to dominate the majors.
* At the end of the day, people really want dollars. This makes people in crypto uncomfortable as they don't want to think about USDT on Tron or USDC on Solana.
* I have personal opinions on how I hope the election will go, but ultimately on a long time period it doesn't really matter. The global macro dictates one path - victory.
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