Derek Hyatt

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@RobKuhn_ @Mister_Keating I love Nick, and I used to like Ali too but his shtick is too much for me now. He’s way too dedicated to using flowery idioms for almost everything he says. He’s clearly smart and articulate but I wish he’d just speak like a normal person.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@Roothlus @Mister_Keating @CaitlinComeskey @RobKuhn_ The Raaandy thing is so funny and I can’t even put my finger on why. Stapes is a legend.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@JonAguiar @dankness3 I constantly wonder about this kind of thing. Have there been many stories about someone gaming polymarket with information like this? I’m assuming it happens all the time, but I’m curious how vigilant the oversight is.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@junglemandan In your experience, are there really people who “know what they’re doing” enough to account for 10% juice long term? Other than promotional offers, which are usually small and aren’t really scalable at all, I’d be surprised if there were many +EV opportunities in sports betting.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@ScottKacsmar But Vegas knows this too. It’s not that deep of a dive. I’m sure it’s factored in.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@Stapes @bp22 @chamath Fair enough, I don’t disagree. Influential people need to get better at scrutinizing claims before they amplify them to their audience. That is one of our big problems too.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@bp22 @Stapes @chamath Can we at least acknowledge that he retracted his retweet? So few are ever willing to do that. The world needs more of this.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@MemeDitka Everything you said makes sense, but it’s still hard to know if it’s +EV. I’m assuming most of the boosts these sportsbooks offer are still -EV. Do you think they intentionally make some of their boosts +EV to lure people into also betting the -EV boosts? What’s your theory?

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@MemeDitka Or even more simply, regardless of X user demographics, people are way less likely to post wins of the trivial amount they win with a favorite. The longshot wins are the only ones worth bragging about.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@DougPolkVids I think your side is +EV because less than 1 in a 1000 times will an entire half and OT go scoreless BUT I also don’t know if I could go on living having to pay out a lottery ticket bet like that so I wouldn’t say I “like” it.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@BussinWTB @FDSportsbook @_willcompton @TaylorLewan77 @FanDuel Most underrated NFL player is Patrick Mahomes. Everyone credits him as being great, but he’s probably the GOAT, and tons of people will claim that Allen or Herbert or Burrow are better.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@LeVeonBell “I’m a definite maybe”

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@ChancesCards Yeah, but I feel like I always level down again when the run-bad is especially bad. After a big score, I handle bad beats well for a while, but eventually I hit the twilight zone again where the beats just feel unfathomable. The permanent level up continues to elude me.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@VanessaSelbst @scott_seiver Beat me to it. Makes me wonder what the best of A actually is.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@sarahcpr Yeah but at least you’re not scared to say you’re scared to say you’re scared. Respect.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@DicconHyatt Also, who says you need a QB to stack? Not enough thinking outside the box.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@DicconHyatt True. It might help SOME that they’re on the same team, but the main factor is the name. If history has taught us anything, it’s that Travises tend to feed off each other.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@JoshuaArieh Sorry, misread the post. I was thinking delinquent loan, not getting actually cheated. That’s significantly worse.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@JoshuaArieh I wouldn’t say “it’s all ok”. It’s certainly better that he repaid me than if he never did, but I think his credit rating should take the appropriate hit. If someone asked, I’d tell them the truth - he’s a risk, but he’ll probably pay you back if/when he can.

[Derek Hyatt @dhy35]

@LeVeonBell My biggest issue with conspiracy theorists is the “100% believe” part. Why 100%? Even a mere 30% should be enough to raise suspicion and make it an interesting discussion, but I have very little patience for 100% belief. It just doesn’t make sense.