Holy shit. This is 100 pages long. It’s the entire oil midstream.
I won’t be coy. This is the most important oil piece we’ve produced. It took a while. Collaboration with @jackprandelli.
It covers what a barrel actually costs to move, who owns every link in the chain, how the benchmarks are manufactured, why insurance reprices a war instantly, and who really made the money in 2026.
Then we created the strongest bear cases we could build against ourselves, with dates and tripwires.
Everyone is trading oil this month. Almost nobody can tell you how it works. That ends today.
https://t.co/9iiCCHEqDs
@aidnmclaughlin@JoeSquawk Is no more a qualified anchor than I am a Bulgarian gymnast. He’s nothing by a Cheetoh sycophant but most US media is incapable of asking legit questions, just like analysts lobbing balls at CEOs to ensure they have some access. Shameful.
Here's my full interview with CNBC, covering my bear case against generative AI, OpenAI's questionable finances, AI's lack of ROI, and how all of this is a symptom of the tech industry running out of hypergrowth ideas.
It's great to see the mainstream media discussing this.
Needed to pull out an important part of the interview.
AI is often justified by comparing it to Amazon Web Services' ($57bn) or Uber's ($32bn) losses, when its costs/losses are hundreds of billions of dollars worse.
There'll also be little useful infrastructure left behind.
Brent down 17% in May.
The market is pricing in a deal.
But no deal is signed.
Trump hasn’t approved.
Iran said nothing is final.
Hormuz still blocked.
The physical market doesn’t care about hope.
It cares about barrels. 🛢️
Here’s what the data actually says 🧵👇
I’m a fan of antifragile companies. It's great if you can find them trading at a discount.
Sinmag (1580) is a bakery machine manufacturer currently trading at an EV/EBIT under 4.7x. A 🧵: