Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓

Product leader | Offshore sailor | Co-Founder of ProductTank Sofia

Interests: data, product, tech, design, sailing.

[m0xt @m0xt_]

Robotaxis are priced as if they’ll replace Uber, but even in a worst-case scenario, they’re positioned to capture only about a quarter of the business.

Everything else is either delivery or markets where robotaxis can’t make the economics work.

Start with the size of it. Delivery was $27.5 billion of that $58 billion, up 26% in a year. That is half the company, with zero robotaxi exposure.

That leaves the Mobility half.

Waymo and Tesla only run in a handful of US cities. The US accounts for about 46% of Uber's total revenue across every business it runs. And Uber operates in roughly 70 countries, so most of the company sits in markets and verticals no robotaxi touches.

The third leg is the one nobody models. Uber's second and third biggest ride markets by trips are Brazil and India. The average fare there is $3 to $4.

A robotaxi, in the best-case scenario, is a $30,000+ vehicle before you add insurance, cleaning, maintenance, depots and remote operators. You don't pay that back on a $3 ride. Those markets stay human-driven for a decade.

Realistically, the only risk is limited-mobility business in the US. It represents about a quarter of their business. And even that assumes competitors win meaningful share, which is still years away.

@andrewgordonmac, Uber’s COO, says SF bookings are still climbing even with Wamo operating there and Uber not deploying any AVs in that market.

To me, investors are sleeping on how resilient Uber’s engine really is (look at the numbers below), while inflating the threat autonomous vehicles pose to its core. They’re also overlooking how difficult it is to enter a new market: securing approvals, building local operations, and standing up the infrastructure: fleet managers, depots, and everything in between.

Uber’s dominance in most major U.S. cities is not going away by 2030. Robotaxis will expand, but they will not overturn Uber’s lead in the bulk of those markets.

Uber is a well-led, well-funded company growing 20%+ with a 200M+ user base. This is the opportunity I would take every day.

Follow me @m0xt_ for more takes and updates on Uber.

You can also join Milk Road PRO to see my full portfolio. Try a trial for just $1: https://t.co/9VV5R1nB5R

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@elonmusk @DOGE Why does a government agency focused on efficiency need two heads? Just take turns to lead it. We'll get double the benefit for half the money.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@BulgariaAir За втори път полетът ви в 23.25 в неделя закъснява с два часа. Повече няма да летя с вас, ако ще да сте последният самолет напускащ планетата в деня преди края на света.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@avnibarman_ 👋

[Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський @ZelenskyyUa]

Sofia. Bulgaria 🇧🇬. I will hold substantial talks with Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov, meet with President Rumen Radev, government officials, parliamentarians, politicians, and journalists. Defense support, 🇺🇦 Euro-Atlantic integration, the @NATO Summit, security guarantees, and the implementation of the #PeaceFormula.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@no_fear_inc My newsletter - No BS, Just Product on Substack. It's a who's who in product management in BG.

[Merissa Silk @merissarsilk]

As a former manager turned IC, completely agree (based on how I’ve observed my skill set evolve) 👏

[Teresa Torres @ttorres]

What's the difference between OKRs and Outcomes?

This is by far one of the most common questions I get. There are lots of answers to this question.
Here's mine: 🧵

[Jenny Fielding @jefielding]

I’ve spent my life wandering cities and countries. Most people think it’s rather unusual…But now studies suggest that wandering actually makes you happy 😍 Well, here’s to more travel, roaming the earth and happiness in 2023! https://t.co/pUnbsCZi1Z

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@bozhobg Добро утро 😂

[Justine Moore @venturetwins]

The 10 best data visualizations of 2022, from r/dataisbeautiful ⬇️

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@lexfridman I wonder - do you have time to reflect on the read stuff, and do you remember and apply the stuff in the books?

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@ypetrova И на мен това ми прави впечатление. То не бяха дарения, линейки, търсене на деца, даже и някои отидоха на място с труд да помагат. За какво са ни тези чиновници като трябва да вадим пари отгоре на данъците ни и даже да ходим лично да им вършим работата? 🤔

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@neportuqua Най-вероятно някой е "светнал" наследниците на Дико Илиев, че могат да се разпореждат с творчеството му.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

Има и по-важни финансови новини от това колко пари са загубили милиардерите и кой с колко места е паднал в списъка 😎

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@VladislavPanev По-скоро спасява парите от последните договори. В този случай тези с активните договори са задължени да му плащат.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

Да пуснеш транспорта на по-дълъг интервал и да отмениш зоните по празниците. Уникален урбанизъм.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@devolonox Война на световете

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@Filipov Agree to disagree. There are some very thoughtful pieces out there. For example, @profgalloway and @stratechery have good, insightful articles all the time.

[Diyan Mihaylov (Diddo) 🇧🇬⛵🤓 @diddo_]

@no_fear_inc This tweet should have been a thread 😎