Levi Dijkstra

Investing, international politics, molecular biology

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@RJCcapital Hyperscaler TAM decreases, AI capex goes down?

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@RJCcapital It's not if hyperscaler TAM is limited to the USA and if they will therefore spend less

[Jukan @jukan05]

Meritz Securities Korea comment on the SoCAMM2 rumor:

Hello, this is Sunwoo Kim and Seungsoo Yang from Meritz Securities.

We are sharing our comment on the capacity adjustment of NVIDIA NVL72 LPDDR5X SoCAMM2 modules.

⸻

SoCAMM2 modules: Total demand is actually increasing

A correction based on misunderstanding is an opportunity

Market concerns are emerging over the reduction in LPDDR5X SoCAMM2 module capacity for NVIDIA NVL72, from 192GB to 96GB.

However, this is merely noise that occasionally occurs when stock prices lead during a DRAM upcycle. Investors should keep in mind that the DRAM upcycle has still not even reached the mid-cycle stage.

We continue to recommend that investors should only start reducing memory exposure from the “shoulder” of the industry cycle. The current level is still merely around the “thigh” of the cycle.

According to our channel checks in Taiwan and Korea, NVIDIA has recently changed the shipment mix of SoCAMM2 modules, while actually increasing total order volumes.

While 192GB modules are being cut by half, 96GB modules are instead increasing by nearly sixfold and becoming the mainstream product. 64GB modules are also increasing by 50%. This appears to be NVIDIA’s pragmatic workaround to prioritize expanding Vera Rubin system shipments amid tight memory supply.

As a result, total SoCAMM2 LPDDR demand is expected to increase by 10–20% compared with the previous forecast.

Moreover, since Vera Rubin systems can be upgraded to higher-capacity modules at any time after initial shipments, this should be interpreted as a positive event that expands the medium- to long-term memory demand ceiling.

For SoCAMM2 module component, materials, and back-end process suppliers, the shift toward higher shipments of lower-capacity products is expected to lead to a sharp upward revision in 2026E/2027E shipment volumes.

⸻

Value chain check

According to our channel checks, there appears to be no component- or materials-level design change to SoCAMM2 modules resulting from this capacity adjustment.

In other words, although memory capacity per module is being lowered, there is no major change in substrate specifications, key material composition, or back-end process complexity. Therefore, the related value chain should fully benefit from the increase in shipment volume.

Rather, in the next-generation products, we expect an increase in substrate layer count, more advanced stack structures, and broader adoption of low-loss materials in order to support high-speed signaling and ensure power integrity.

Therefore, this adjustment should be interpreted as a double positive: in the near term, it expands SoCAMM2 module shipments; and in the medium to long term, it drives higher-value substrate and materials specifications.

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@KawzInvests Thanks for the adjustment! Shows integrity.

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@KawzInvests @Yeah_Dave Not only fair, but undermining a big part of the thesis.

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@aleabitoreddit How about Msscorps?

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@NEWS2082680 Bullish Nynomic (M7U)

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@HyperTechInvest Nynomic (M7U). German small-cap ignored recently. Nynomic’s LayTec provides the in-situ metrology embedded in AIXTRON MOCVD tools required for precise GaN and SiC epitaxy for power semis and photonics. @MoodyWriter13 has written great articles about Nynomic, earnings are tomorrow

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@ThematicTrader @VisionaryMrktg Appreciate it for sure, but with so many paid substacks out there it becomes incredibly expensive. A lower threshold would make it more accessible (and honestly give you more traction).

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@blondesnmoney I saw it too, quickly bought some at 866 lol

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@upliftyourpath Highest conviction for Nynomic for the near term from all names mentioned.

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@upliftyourpath Don't forget Nynomic (M7U)

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@aleabitoreddit I listened, thank you senpai!

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@Thomas_james_1 Calnex Solutions PLC LON: CLX. Completely overlooked but has deals with hyperscalers.

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@ParadisLabs Great thesis, has ample room to go still!

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@KawzInvests How about Calnex solutions (LON: CLX)? They do testing and even have partnership with $META

[Levi Dijkstra @dijkstra_levi]

@jasonschips Have you taken a look at Nynomic AG (M7U)? Their Laytec metrology is incorporated in Aixtron SE (AIXA) MOCVD reactors, and Aixtron has increased guidance just last week