Meritz Securities Korea comment on the SoCAMM2 rumor:
Hello, this is Sunwoo Kim and Seungsoo Yang from Meritz Securities.
We are sharing our comment on the capacity adjustment of NVIDIA NVL72 LPDDR5X SoCAMM2 modules.
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SoCAMM2 modules: Total demand is actually increasing
A correction based on misunderstanding is an opportunity
Market concerns are emerging over the reduction in LPDDR5X SoCAMM2 module capacity for NVIDIA NVL72, from 192GB to 96GB.
However, this is merely noise that occasionally occurs when stock prices lead during a DRAM upcycle. Investors should keep in mind that the DRAM upcycle has still not even reached the mid-cycle stage.
We continue to recommend that investors should only start reducing memory exposure from the “shoulder” of the industry cycle. The current level is still merely around the “thigh” of the cycle.
According to our channel checks in Taiwan and Korea, NVIDIA has recently changed the shipment mix of SoCAMM2 modules, while actually increasing total order volumes.
While 192GB modules are being cut by half, 96GB modules are instead increasing by nearly sixfold and becoming the mainstream product. 64GB modules are also increasing by 50%. This appears to be NVIDIA’s pragmatic workaround to prioritize expanding Vera Rubin system shipments amid tight memory supply.
As a result, total SoCAMM2 LPDDR demand is expected to increase by 10–20% compared with the previous forecast.
Moreover, since Vera Rubin systems can be upgraded to higher-capacity modules at any time after initial shipments, this should be interpreted as a positive event that expands the medium- to long-term memory demand ceiling.
For SoCAMM2 module component, materials, and back-end process suppliers, the shift toward higher shipments of lower-capacity products is expected to lead to a sharp upward revision in 2026E/2027E shipment volumes.
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Value chain check
According to our channel checks, there appears to be no component- or materials-level design change to SoCAMM2 modules resulting from this capacity adjustment.
In other words, although memory capacity per module is being lowered, there is no major change in substrate specifications, key material composition, or back-end process complexity. Therefore, the related value chain should fully benefit from the increase in shipment volume.
Rather, in the next-generation products, we expect an increase in substrate layer count, more advanced stack structures, and broader adoption of low-loss materials in order to support high-speed signaling and ensure power integrity.
Therefore, this adjustment should be interpreted as a double positive: in the near term, it expands SoCAMM2 module shipments; and in the medium to long term, it drives higher-value substrate and materials specifications.
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