Thoughts on Restore and Reform after this week:
If Restore Britain amounts to nothing more than a pressure campaign, then it has served its purpose.
It forced Reform to adopt a more resilient posture against attacks from the media, strengthen their deportation and demographic policies, turn away more Tory defectors, and reflect on how they lost thousands of canvassers and every Zoomer with an organic following.
Reform took notice, though few will admit it publicly.
Restore was founded as a non-partisan movement. I was there. It has achieved its goal after converting into a political party.
There was a window of opportunity where Restore could have become the equivalent of Reform in 2024: pick up single-digit seats, sustain the narrative of national renewal should Reform underperform in government, and provide experience to a generation of exuberant Gen Z politicians.
That window is closing. Structural problems, weak candidates, and blasé decision-making has stalled, possibly squandered, that opportunity.
A shame, as there's still a lot of great talent, people, and goodwill there. I'm sure they can fulfil their potential in future. As I warned Reform in late 2024, if they had refused to estrange their base, this wouldn't be a problem.
I'm not laying flowers at Restore's grave, but this is what my instincts are telling me. Those instincts tend to be good, and that's why I have an audience who listens to my takes. People won't like that I'm saying it, but I won't be anything but honest.
We should be in the business of forcing political parties to do what we want. Take your own side. That means rewarding things we like, and punishing things we don't.
To that end, third-party institutions will need to draft legislation, and train up lawyers and civil servants, so that Reform doesn't allocate insufficient resources to the task in its rush to get ready to govern.
That will also stop some of the squeamishness of some in Reform from further contaminating the agenda, because we don't have time for half measures.
Reform will also be forced to resolve it's contradictions, stop being so inauthentic, improve its policy offering, and put up better candidates.
Otherwise, they will keep underperforming in elections, despite their poll lead, and won't win — or will fulfill many Conservatives' fantasies of a post-election pact.
And they will have nobody to blame for that but themselves.
Can Reform be trusted? They have a credibility deficit to correct. Most of the Tory defectors were a mistake. Some are baked in. Others could be dropped.
Reform don't understand digital media. They say they do, but they don't. They have learned too late that inconsistent messaging is a liability when people can post your contradictory statements side-by-side on social media. It's not like how Westminster briefings or TV studios could be used to target different audiences in the 90s - 2010s.
Some of the senior figures also come across as inauthentic. It's like they're selling the right on accepting a softer version of what's possible rather than putting a positive vision forward.
Farage is strongest when he looks like an advocate for our people, not making excuses for why he can't be. Seems like he's clocked that, but he needs to acknowledge why he felt like he couldn't before. (Also he needs to stop Cameo. It's cringe.) Zia gets this.
Reform will have to subject their candidates to interviews from the right. Not controlled environments with proscribed topics. They're going to have to be honest, say "We thought we had to say this, but politics is different now..." Pass the Steven Edginton test next time around.
As their underperformance in by-elections show, negative campaigns and fears of higher taxes are not better at mobilising low-propensity voters than the vitalism of the Trump 2024 campaign was.
They need a different vibe than 70s-90s TV nostalgia. Butlins / Surprise Surprise / Only Fools and Horses is aura poison to anyone under 30.