DC

Student of market tides

[DC @dimit]

Digital Assets, Full Circle ⭕️

Total Digital Asset Market Cap
Vs. World Semiconductor Market Cap: -88% over five (5) years.
Two equidistant 75% drawdown waves (A + C) from peak to Today.
Round-Trip to MAR 2020 secular nadir.
Perhaps, the digital asset PIVOT occurs when the Semiconductor Mania Peaks.

BTC: 64,878
SOX: 13,916
#mstr #bitcoin

[DC @dimit]

Manifestation of Mania, 2 🎲
SOX: Monthly Sharpe Ratio of 4.33, 1yr lookback.
Mathematical Rarity.
If, this Cap-Weighted Semiconductor closes at current levels at month-end, will print> 5.
Casino Royale.

[DC @dimit]

SP500, ~26year Round-Trip ⭕️

Dividend Yield ~1.05%

SP500, 7365 last

[DC @dimit]

Manifestation of Mania = SOXL ✴️
(3x SOX-Semiconductor ETF)

+259% over 25 trade days, or 39,386,822%/annum.
8 gaps opened over this period.
+193% gap to 200day SMA.
Underlying RSI APR 24 2026 > MAR 10 2000, Record.
5th wave extension, final strokes of structure born on APR 4 2025.
Currently RSI diverging from vertical Px.
Waiting on gravity as was the JAN 29 2026 silver phenomenon.

$SOXL, 146.44
$SOX, 11,033

[DC @dimit]

The most extreme underling index level fragility, on record - at today's closing print.

[.REDZ = custom index formulation inclusive of SP500 index and member volatility and skew.]

JUN SP500: 7,211
JUN NDX100: 27,451

[DC @dimit]

Trump: The whole world has become somewhat of a casino. 🎲 ⚰️

Couple of thoughts.
1/ The first words of Truth I hear from his mouth in some time.
2/ World is in trouble considering how many casinos he's bankrupted.

[DC @dimit]

Central Banks Turn Sellers of GOLD 🌀

*TURKEY MULLS TAPPING $135 BILLION GOLD RESERVE FOR LIRA DEFENSE

TCMB joins recent statements from Poland and Russia, selling gold to fund sovereign operations/spending.

spot $XAU, 4358

[DC @dimit]

@Todd_Sykon Soros warned.
https://t.co/3KBYAOODLc

[DC @dimit]

@macrocredit 09:51:58
*HASSETT ON PRIVATE MARKETS:
UNDER A `TINY LITTLE BIT OF STRESS'

[DC @dimit]

*TRUMP ON IRAN STRIKE IMPACT ON OIL PRICES: NOT CONCERNED

translation: there will be pain.

DEC CO/CL, +5.03 last
JUN CL, 66.72 last

[DC @dimit]

Friday Night Lights 🔦

*BLACKROCK PRIVATE DEBT FUND EXPECTS 19% NET ASSET VALUE CUT

~$3.5 - 4.0 Trillion of private credit debt collateral outstanding.

Such credit underpins ~$20 Trillion of Private Equity.

[DC @dimit]

Cross-asset market signal.
Pain will be required.

*BESSENT: VOTERS MANDATED TRUMP TO MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN

ESz5, 6866
NVDA, 192.33

[DC @dimit]

SKEW >> Envy writ large.
SP500 member volatility less index level volatility; 3day MA ~25.08 *record reach* as MAG7 results season kicks off.

sp500@6888

[DC @dimit]

Nasdaq Factor US Momentum Drain 🕳️
Dealers begin to pull (call-in) client leverage financing following Q-end extension spike (purple). Similar to NOV 2021, DEC 2024. Confirms the ongoing weekly echo boom failure in 3m NDX100 weekly sharpe ratio.

NQFFM Index, 3472
SP500 MAR 26 swap financing rate, 85 (90 cycle peak)

[DC @dimit]

@profplum99 Current weekly SP500 Skew setup/steep divergence resembles SEP-OCT 2007 and NOV 2021.

[DC @dimit]

@profplum99 in midst of 3-4week divergent/failure reflex, as NOV 2021.

[DC @dimit]

Momentum Mathematics: Rare Extreme.
NDX weekly Sharpe ratio, 3m lookback period = 8.99
Price is now the only fundamental.
Fragile underbelly.

SEP NDX = 23,280 last

[DC @dimit]

The Quickening. 🌊

Past 48 hours.

TRUMP: CHINA MUST SUPPLY US WITH MAGNETS — IF NOT, WE’LL HIT THEM WITH A 200% TARIFF OR MORE.

BESSENT: DELISTING CHINA COMPANIES HASN'T BEEN ON TABLE **YET**

FXI, 38.16
KWEB, 37.30

[flashback]
https://t.co/nJ7f0SwlZM

[DC @dimit]

Momentum Mathematics: Rare Extreme II💣

Risk Parity 20d Volatility hovering near historical lower bound, as it did last in early 2020.