Digital Assets, Full Circle ⭕️
Total Digital Asset Market Cap
Vs. World Semiconductor Market Cap: -88% over five (5) years.
Two equidistant 75% drawdown waves (A + C) from peak to Today.
Round-Trip to MAR 2020 secular nadir.
Perhaps, the digital asset PIVOT occurs when the Semiconductor Mania Peaks.
BTC: 64,878
SOX: 13,916
#mstr #bitcoin
Manifestation of Mania, 2 🎲
SOX: Monthly Sharpe Ratio of 4.33, 1yr lookback.
Mathematical Rarity.
If, this Cap-Weighted Semiconductor closes at current levels at month-end, will print> 5.
Casino Royale.
Manifestation of Mania = SOXL ✴️
(3x SOX-Semiconductor ETF)
+259% over 25 trade days, or 39,386,822%/annum.
8 gaps opened over this period.
+193% gap to 200day SMA.
Underlying RSI APR 24 2026 > MAR 10 2000, Record.
5th wave extension, final strokes of structure born on APR 4 2025.
Currently RSI diverging from vertical Px.
Waiting on gravity as was the JAN 29 2026 silver phenomenon.
$SOXL, 146.44
$SOX, 11,033
The most extreme underling index level fragility, on record - at today's closing print.
[.REDZ = custom index formulation inclusive of SP500 index and member volatility and skew.]
JUN SP500: 7,211
JUN NDX100: 27,451
Trump: The whole world has become somewhat of a casino. 🎲 ⚰️
Couple of thoughts.
1/ The first words of Truth I hear from his mouth in some time.
2/ World is in trouble considering how many casinos he's bankrupted.
Central Banks Turn Sellers of GOLD 🌀
*TURKEY MULLS TAPPING $135 BILLION GOLD RESERVE FOR LIRA DEFENSE
TCMB joins recent statements from Poland and Russia, selling gold to fund sovereign operations/spending.
spot $XAU, 4358
Friday Night Lights 🔦
*BLACKROCK PRIVATE DEBT FUND EXPECTS 19% NET ASSET VALUE CUT
~$3.5 - 4.0 Trillion of private credit debt collateral outstanding.
Such credit underpins ~$20 Trillion of Private Equity.
SKEW >> Envy writ large.
SP500 member volatility less index level volatility; 3day MA ~25.08 *record reach* as MAG7 results season kicks off.
sp500@6888
Nasdaq Factor US Momentum Drain 🕳️
Dealers begin to pull (call-in) client leverage financing following Q-end extension spike (purple). Similar to NOV 2021, DEC 2024. Confirms the ongoing weekly echo boom failure in 3m NDX100 weekly sharpe ratio.
NQFFM Index, 3472
SP500 MAR 26 swap financing rate, 85 (90 cycle peak)
Momentum Mathematics: Rare Extreme.
NDX weekly Sharpe ratio, 3m lookback period = 8.99
Price is now the only fundamental.
Fragile underbelly.
SEP NDX = 23,280 last
The Quickening. 🌊
Past 48 hours.
TRUMP: CHINA MUST SUPPLY US WITH MAGNETS — IF NOT, WE’LL HIT THEM WITH A 200% TARIFF OR MORE.
BESSENT: DELISTING CHINA COMPANIES HASN'T BEEN ON TABLE **YET**
FXI, 38.16
KWEB, 37.30
[flashback]
https://t.co/nJ7f0SwlZM