DC

Student of market tides

[DC @dimit]

"SP500 = US c/a" 💣
Similar to the 2007-08 GFC, the financialized collateral underlying extreme credit leverage simply has to stop rising. House prices versus US stocks today, stretched to 2.50x GDP, ~40.1 CAPE. This time, the US sovereign relies on a softening foreign stock bid to square it entire c/a.

$SPX, 7541 last
$DXY, 101.8 last

[DC @dimit]

KSA - BoP stress rising ♨️
Saudi 5yr CDS begin to price rising Balance of Payments stress (black line). Fwd indicator (red line) foreshadows a step-up to 90bps (71 last) in short order. FV well >100 likely reflects reality.
KSA NIIP w/ USA = ~$1/2 Trillion. Another $1/2T in gold (official). The liquid means for KSA to buttress BoP hemorrhaging = liquidation of US stocks, bonds, & gold.

$SP500 last = 7,690
$Gold spot = 4,139.
10yr UST = 5.13%

[DC @dimit]

Round-Trip ticket - $SOXL 🛝

$20 billion has been driven into 3x Semi ETF.
Behind only QQQ and SPY, SOXL rules the daily degen turnover derby.
125dma has provided support throughout the post-Tariff Tantrum crash'ette (rebound) of 2025. Five (5) distinct intermediate saves.
TODAY, this adaptive support was severed. Opens the gate to fill opening gap of APR 8 2026, a full ~50% below current levels. Few will survive this pattern.

[DC @dimit]

Digital Assets, An Observation 🧐

CME Bitcoin NET Commercials less NET Speculators differential now at a record since inception of BTC futures contract inception in 4Q 2017 (green histogram).
Commercials began heavy accumulation < 70K in FEB and keep accumulating.
Extraordinary intermediate-term directional track record. let us watch.

$BTC 63,266 last

[DC @dimit]

ALL-IN 📸

Total $US Market Cap = 77.30 Trillion (~2.49 x US GDP)

[DC @dimit]

Goldman Sachs Bull-Bear gauge 🔍
Divergence now running ~27months.
Appears to be turning lower, NOW.
Immense implications for top-line US stock indexes, if correlation reverts.

#NQ1, 29777
#MAGS 66.08

[DC @dimit]

Digital Assets, Full Circle ⭕️

Total Digital Asset Market Cap
Vs. World Semiconductor Market Cap: -88% over five (5) years.
Two equidistant 75% drawdown waves (A + C) from peak to Today.
Round-Trip to MAR 2020 secular nadir.
Perhaps, the digital asset PIVOT occurs when the Semiconductor Mania Peaks.

BTC: 64,878
SOX: 13,916
#mstr #bitcoin

[DC @dimit]

Manifestation of Mania, 2 🎲
SOX: Monthly Sharpe Ratio of 4.33, 1yr lookback.
Mathematical Rarity.
If, this Cap-Weighted Semiconductor closes at current levels at month-end, will print> 5.
Casino Royale.

[DC @dimit]

SP500, ~26year Round-Trip ⭕️

Dividend Yield ~1.05%

SP500, 7365 last

[DC @dimit]

Manifestation of Mania = SOXL ✴️
(3x SOX-Semiconductor ETF)

+259% over 25 trade days, or 39,386,822%/annum.
8 gaps opened over this period.
+193% gap to 200day SMA.
Underlying RSI APR 24 2026 > MAR 10 2000, Record.
5th wave extension, final strokes of structure born on APR 4 2025.
Currently RSI diverging from vertical Px.
Waiting on gravity as was the JAN 29 2026 silver phenomenon.

$SOXL, 146.44
$SOX, 11,033

[DC @dimit]

The most extreme underling index level fragility, on record - at today's closing print.

[.REDZ = custom index formulation inclusive of SP500 index and member volatility and skew.]

JUN SP500: 7,211
JUN NDX100: 27,451

[DC @dimit]

Trump: The whole world has become somewhat of a casino. 🎲 ⚰️

Couple of thoughts.
1/ The first words of Truth I hear from his mouth in some time.
2/ World is in trouble considering how many casinos he's bankrupted.

[DC @dimit]

Central Banks Turn Sellers of GOLD 🌀

*TURKEY MULLS TAPPING $135 BILLION GOLD RESERVE FOR LIRA DEFENSE

TCMB joins recent statements from Poland and Russia, selling gold to fund sovereign operations/spending.

spot $XAU, 4358

[DC @dimit]

@Todd_Sykon Soros warned.
https://t.co/3KBYAOODLc

[DC @dimit]

@macrocredit 09:51:58
*HASSETT ON PRIVATE MARKETS:
UNDER A `TINY LITTLE BIT OF STRESS'

[DC @dimit]

*TRUMP ON IRAN STRIKE IMPACT ON OIL PRICES: NOT CONCERNED

translation: there will be pain.

DEC CO/CL, +5.03 last
JUN CL, 66.72 last