Dimitris Kar

[TAOisTheKey @TaoIsTheKey]

Is anybody else feeling this way?

I’ll admit it:

I have severe PTSD from round tripping my 7-figure crypto bags back to low 6 figures last cycle. And my PTSD has only INCREASED from this bull run, which hasn’t been easy to navigate by ANY stretch of the imagination.

Every rally feels like a fake out to me. Every time my portfolio starts ripping, I’m not believing it and waiting for the next show to fall that sends my bags down 25%-40% in a heartbeat.

It takes weeks for tokens to move 100% higher and 1-2 days to completely erase those gains and send them lower than where they started at the 100% move.

Feels very much like 1 step forward, 2 steps back kind of situation.

I’m praying with every fiber of my being that this bull run isn’t finished. That BTC hasn’t topped yet. That alts still have one massive euphoric multi-month run left in them. That the FED doesn’t shit on our parade with their actions or their tone towards the economy and rates.

I’m having flashbacks of late 2021 when the fed came out and said they would start raising rates in 2022, and every dipshit “expert” crypto analyst I followed disregarded that and claimed that there would be an elongated crypto bull cycle bc “iNsTiTutIoNs & eL sAlvAdOrE aRe bUyIng nOw” so “tHis tiMe iT’s diFfEReNt!”

I keep telling myself this is Jan 2025, which is analogous to Jan 2021, and there SHOULD be a lot of bull run to go before it all goes to shit. The fed is still cutting rates at least for now. Trump comes in Jan 20th which should provide a huge boost for all risk on assets including crypto as he pushes for low rates and a weaker dollar again. And that BTC hasn’t shown much confluence of topping indicators to make the case that its topped out for this cycle.

But I don’t know if I’m telling myself a story that fits what I want to believe, or if I’m being logical. Or both. 🤷

I’ve said this to my friends and family before and I’ll say it again:

I HATE crypto bull runs. While I don’t LOVE bear markets, they are EASY to navigate once you know you’re in one. And they present incredible opportunities to research and buy projects that no one is looking at and no one cares about bc the whole world believes crypto is dead except the biggest degens like myself. Bear markets are just research, buy, hold, stake and chill.

Bull markets on the other hand are chaotic, vicious, and they make you second guess and doubt yourself at every turn.

“Am I in the right projects?”

“Shit! I missed that one and it’s up 10,000% in a month! How the fuck did I miss that?”

“Every token is ripping higher but mine. I don’t want to chase green candles but I also don’t want to miss the opportunity to be in a project that can retire me in a year”.

And then throw on top of that the tens of thousands of new projects popping up, most of which are rug pulls and scams.

Throw in crazy crashes, black swan events like Israel/iran, Covid, etc.

Throw in 8 month long dips and accumulation zones that tire you out and make you question whether you’re still in a bull run or not.

Content creators pumping this token and that token. And there’s simply not enough $ to buy them all and most of these KOLs are pieces of shit that want to dump their bags on you as exit liquidity anyway.

Bull markets are insane and so draining.

I can’t fucking wait to GTFO of this. Hopefully with life changing profits this time around. That way when I get back in during the next bear, it will just be with an amount of money that is negligible to me rather than my life savings.

This shit has aged me 10 years since the start of 2024.

Is anybody else feeling this way?

[emporio sidirou @emporio_sidirou]

I just published 8 Essential Products for Metal Roof Construction with Panels https://t.co/YIFiDfhn8n

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@ChainLinkGod Cool infographic

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@jiffCTO @cryptomanran weak hands out. $jiff ready to fly

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@TylerDurden @jiffCTO At least now we can load up on $jiff before the final launch

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@jiffCTO $jiff to the moon

[SHIB HODLER @ShibaInuHodler]

Aped into jiffpom $jiff CTO

Most followed dog on TikTok and Instagram. Total 20 million followers.

cto team is committed, and community is forming.

https://t.co/i8tjQpLBsG

[Edgy - The DeFi Edge 🗡️ @thedefiedge]

There are 4 Phases of a Bull market.

We’re nearing the end of Phase 1. Here's how to play market cycles so you don’t screw up your best chance at generational wealth.

Here’s your playbook for:

1) Navigating each phase of the bull market
2) Maximizing your profits
3) and avoiding the most common traps.

/ PHASE 1: The Accumulation Phase

This is where we’re at and have been for the past year. The market bottomed out after Terra’s collapse, FTX’s collapse, and the scare of USDC’s depeg.

(Make sure you bookmark this post. You want to use it as a reference guide once the bull market’s on the way. I wrote this for myself and am sticking it to my wall to remind myself.)

The worst is over (unless Binance / Tether fuck up).

Prices are boring and choppy. Big news barely moves prices, such as Paypal’s stablecoin. Right now, there’s no new liquidity entering the system. No volatility. It’s the same 500 degens PVP’ing each other and trying to front-run each other to the next degen narrative.

This is the phase of preparation. Start putting the Chess pieces on the board to make your big moves. Plant your seeds now, and reap them during the bull market.

Action Plan:

• Accumulate good projects. Look for projects that you think will thrive in the upcoming bull market. Projects with product/market fit, competitors' advantages, the team’s still building, solid roadmap, and sound financial metrics.

• Save some ammo. It’s tempting to ape into so many older projects. They look like a steal because they’re -90% from their all-time highs. Here’s the thing…most of the best performers for the next cycle don’t exist yet. People favor being “early” to something completely new, than buying an older project.

• Don’t Overtrade. Don’t screw yourself over because you were bored and lost everything in Hamster races and Bald. You have to survive first before you can win. Don’t play bad poker hands because you’re bored - wait for the good ones.

• Fill in the Gaps in Your Knowledge. The bull market isn’t for learning. The bull market is for picking money up from the floor. This is the time to be learning. You don’t want to hear about a new protocol building on top of GMX, but you have to spend a week catching up on the basics of GMX during the bull.

• Monitor liquidity. Look for inflows to CEX’s. Look for Stablecoins being deployed. Look for DeFi TVL increasing. Look for the size of the Crypto’s overall market cap to increase. More liquidity means things are shifting.

/ PHASE 2: Early Bull Market

The prices start rising, and the bears will be in disbelief. Capo will pop up every 2 months, talking about how $12k BTC is coming soon.

What screws people over is disbelief. Their bear market PTSD holds you back from making gains. Ironically, the earlier in the cycle you are, the more risk on you should be before the crowds are here.

What Can Cause a Bull Market to Trigger?

• Major events such as BTC or ETH ETF getting approved. Or a new country adopts BTC as legal tender.

• BTC halving is coming in 2024. The past doesn’t guarantee the future, of course. But if enough people believe it then…

• New primitives. The previous cycle had DeFi and NFTs. What’s going to be hot this cycle? GambleFi? TelegramBots? NFT comeback? GameFi? RWA’s? Most likely they’ll be a few sectors we haven’t even begun to imagine. Think of things like Axies Infinity or Stepn, but with better mechanics.

• Macro Changes. The Fed pivots and stop raising interest rates. This allows more liquidity to enter the markets potentially.

• Regulatory Changes. The U.S. and other companies can provide more transparent and more crypto-friendly frameworks.

• Lowering of Friction. It’s still a pain in the ass to onboard normies. Better wallets, account abstraction, and more newbie-friendly dapps will help.

• The Far East. Crypto Twitter has an extreme bias towards America. It’s why most of CT doesn’t “get” why Tron is so popular (It’s used heavily in Asia). Don’t fade the power of Korean degens, and Hong Kong becoming more Crypto friendly.

It just takes a major single event to trigger the domino effect.

A few degens start making some life-changing money. They upgrade their lifestyles and tell everyone about it. And then this slowly spreads across their network.

Action Plan:

1. Cut your Losers and add to your winners. Don’t become emotionally tied to your bags. Just because a project did a 5x doesn’t mean it can’t do another 10x from there. Look at the metrics, momentum, and sentiment. Be brutal with cutting your losers.

2. Take profits on the way UP. No one can time the top perfectly. Don’t try to squeeze every cent out of a trade. Create a take-profit system and stick to it.

3. Be careful of taking on too many risks. This is where people start using leveraging, tapping into their home equity/retirement accounts, or selling their BTC / ETH to chase shitcoins. You should be risk on, but don’t be redacted about it.

4. Lower Your IQ - Some of the best performers will have the worst fundamentals. The tokenomics will be complete shit. But remember this: prices only go up when other people buy. And people are too stupid to understand the high iq plays. Don’t mid-curve it.

5. Cult Leaders - This is where cult leaders start gaining power. They know how to pump tokens and sway emotions. Inevitably, cult leaders all seem to die off in the end. You can either hop in early for the ride and take profits before it crashes or avoid them altogether.

6. Don’t Ignore Retail - It’s easy to get caught up in the Crypto Twitter DeFi echo chamber where everyone circlejerks each other over “real yield curve war flywheel effects.” Retail doesn’t understand any of that shit. Go to places where they hang out like Reddit and YouTube comments.

7. Focus. Find a few sectors to specialize in. It's impossible to keep up with the entire market. Be ok missing a few bets, then entering too late and becoming exit liquidity. Build your squad now to cover your blind spots.

/ PHASE 3: Peak Bull Market

This is where retail users start FLOODING in. They’re entering phase 3 out of 4 (In their heads, they think they’re entering Phase 2 out of 5).

Bull markets are self-reinforcing. As the price goes up, this drives fomo. There’s a positive feedback loop that keeps driving prices higher and higher.

Everything goes up. $10k in a shitcoin can turn into life-changing gains. You can’t get a haircut or hop into an Uber without hearing about Crypto.

FOMO and Euphoria kick in. It feels like the party will never end, and all common sense goes out the window.

People start quitting their jobs to become full-time Crypto traders. Others will sell their house to invest in Crypto.

Everyone’s in a fucking great mood.

Can you spot the top signals?

• Mainstream media starts covering Crypto. You’ll hear repeated stories about the guy trying to find his hard drive with 8,000 bitcoin or who bought 2 pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin.

• Financial Youtubers like MeetKevin, Max Maher, and Graham Stephen will start uploading 3+ Crypto videos daily.

• Mainstream brands like Pepsi and McDonalds will start mentioning Crypto for clout. Mainstream celebrities try to cash in through sponsorships or launch their NFT collections.

• Everyone's Flexing. Rolex Submariners on the timeline. New cars. When there’s too much bragging on your Twitter timeline, your spider senses should be going off.

Everyone’s going to try to convince you that this time’s different. You have to fight against your instinct.

The most important thing during this phase is thinking about your exit plan. Be level-headed and realize that the party’s not going to last forever.

Take chips off the table. Your future self is praying that you’re not an idiot. If you don’t take profits, the markets will take them back.

/ PHASE 4: The Mark Down Phase

What goes up might come down - the peak of the bull run has peaked. And now everyone’s wondering if that was the peak or if it will extend into a “super cycle.”

They’ll try to tell you that this time is different - we’ve finally gone mainstream! Watch for super cycle chatter, Bitcoin lengthening theories, or made-up charts. The cycle’s going to last a few more years!

Remember, everyone’s financially incentivized to keep the party going. Have to keep the audience engaged for that sponsorship money. Must keep getting more liquidity into the shitcoins.

And there will be moments of glimmer and hope. Bitcoin peaked in November 2021. But there was still action with OHM forks, FTM / Solidly, and Luna.

Once prices crash, this is where Capo emerges to say, “I told you so,” after missing the 2-year bull cycle and generational wealth.

/ What Gives me So Much Conviction That There Will Be Another Bull Market?

I’ve staked my career and the next decade of my life to DeFi. I have the utmost conviction in this space.

I’m going to make it simple.

Life fucking sucks for the average person and is getting worse.

• Credit card debt at a record high
• Everyone’s debt is at a record high
• Student loan re-payments are starting soon
• Credit cards interest rates are at a record high
• Interest expense on debt to reach record high
• Average monthly payment for a new car at a record high
• And don’t get me started on housing prices

Society and culture have turned life into ultra-hard mode for everyone. Going to college and getting a job isn’t enough to survive and own a home. The cost of living keeps rising, and the middle class is disappearing.

All this is happening while societal pressure to succeed keeps increasing.

No one in the new generation is interested in maxing out their 401k and getting rich when they’re 65 (I’m speaking as a Boglehead).

They want to get rich now. Everyone wants instant gratification. Everyone’s dopamine receptors are fried. There’s pressure to show off a fantastic lifestyle and to show everyone you’re the main character.

Basically…humans are greedy and will want the 100x.

Crypto’s not just selling a new financial infrastructure - it’s selling dreams. And there’s no faster way for people to realize their dreams than Crypto.

Crypto is our best chance of making it and not just settling for a life of survival.

P.s. If this would be useful to your audience, then help me out by giving this a retweet.

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

I have been rekt many times in crypto. The feelings you feel now I have felt in a prior cycle.

Did I give up?

No.

I identified where I went wrong and made an adjustment.

Don’t give up.

The cycles get easier the longer you are here.

[Jake Pahor @jake_pahor]

Crypto is all consuming.

Once you go down the rabbit hole, nothing else seems remotely interesting.

If you are still working a 'normal' 9-5 job (like me), it feels like you are living a double life- fiat by day, crypto by night.

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

Lots of really bad takes about SVB. Let’s try and correct

This is not a solvency crisis like 2008. Bad loans or poor investments were not made. Money was not lost. So, everyone is going to get their money back. (And please no takes about no interest rate hedging. Asset/liability mismatches are how banking works.)

Instead this is an old fashion 1930s liquidity crisis. Too many depositors demanded cash at once (as in right now) and SVB (and SI) could not convert loans and securities (and crypto) to cash that quickly. So, everyone is getting their money back from SVB (and SI), just not at 8AM Monday. And, yes this is a big problem as this is working capital for a lot of companies. They have payrolls to meet and vendors to pay next week. And if they don’t pay bills and employees, they in turn don’t pay their bills and this can quickly cascade into a major economic problem.

The important question is why so many demanded their money back at once. And I’m not referring to the last two days. I’m asking about the days/weeks leading up to this last two days forcing SVB to sell securities and realize a $1.8B loss, necessitating a capital raise. Why were depositors withdrawing in big enough amounts before Thursday/Friday?

First, welcome to the world of mobile banking. Gone are the frictions of standing in line with tellers instructed to count money slowly. (Media images of lines Friday were largely gawkers)

How did $42 billion get withdrawn Friday alone without thousands in line? Answer, your phone! This is not the Bailey Savings and Loan anymore.

This should scare the hell of bankers and regulators worldwide. The entire $17 trillion deposit base is now on a hair trigger expecting instant liquidity.

Add in social media and millions get a message, like Peter Thiel telling Founders companies to pull out, or Senator Warren gloating that SI went under, and pick up their phone open a Chase account and Venmo-ed their life savings into it in 10 minutes. Instant liquidity (not solvency) crisis with everyone still in bed.

Banking will never be the same.

The second, and I did a long thread on this on Friday … banks are over-reserved, after 14 years of QE, and are still paying 0.50% on accounts when T-bills are yielding 5.00%. They don’t need to compete for deposits.

Initially as rates passed 2%, 3% and 4%, the public did not notice. So bankers thought deposits were well anchored at their bank and not moving regardless of the interest rate paid.

But at 5% the public finally noticed, and millions reached for the phone at once and transferred to a money market account or Treasury direct to buy T-bills. Banks were squeezed to convert loans and securities to cash instantly so depositors could leave for better rates.

Add in the bleed out from tech firms struggling, and Senator Warrens tweeting with glee about SI going out of business, and depositors at SVB got the message and picked up their phones and acted.

This is why I have been tweeting that this has to stop now. The Fed is meeting Monday at 11:30. Too late! They need to meet today (Sunday) at 11:30.

What needs to be done? Two things.

The FDIC needs to raise the deposit insurance ceiling to unlimited as they did this in 2008. Besides $250k is a made up number anyway. So make up a bigger number.

Banks need to get their deposit base to stop figuring out how to buy a 4.5% money market fund. They need to raise the interest rates they pay 3.00% - 3.50%, from 0.50%, immediately. Yes, this will kill bank profitability so expect Bank Execs to balk at doing this.

This way the public gets the message that you money is safe, no matter the bank, or the amount, and the rate paid on your money is at least competitive with other alternatives. So, do nothing.

Otherwise, if we are all waiting for the Fed to START a meeting at 11:30 Monday, hundreds of billions of deposits will have moved by phone and it will be far worse.

[sassal.eth/acc 🦇🔊 @sassal0x]

Bear markets end in apathy; not in fear.

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@StackerSatoshi Casting couch?

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@CryptoMichNL $usdt

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@WatcherGuru Was a test withdrawal to check if it works okay

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@el_crypto_prof Timeline is also important. Financial system wasn’t about to collapse in 2015 or 2018. Inflation is too painful even at 4-5% for the fed to pivot anytime soon

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@Trader_XO I’m in it for the tech anyway….

[scooter @imperooterxbt]

Bitcoin is going to ZERO

YOUR CRYPTO INVESTMENTS ARE GOING TO ZERO

YOU WASTED YEARS OF YOUR LIFE LISTENING TO A BUNCH OF CARTOON LARPS ON TWITTER JUST LOL BUDDY BOY.

KEEP COPING ITS OVER

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@chowcollection Nah, it feels like $Btc at $12000

[Dimitris Kar @dimitriskar10]

@CryptoMichNL You may want to drag that area a bit down the screen