*EXCLUSIVE with @ChaplainChloe@EllenAMilligan*
Andy Burnham will be told by senior civil servants on Monday that he faces a worsening economy, rising borrowing costs and interest rate hikes in his first six months as PM. He’ll also be warned there could be an oil price shock if the Iran war escalates and new pressure from Donald Trump to provide UK military support.
Burnham will receive updated economic forecasts from the Treasury on his first day in office that will paint a challenging picture, according to people familiar with the preparations for the transition of power. It’ll be an immediate reality check that complicates his promise to quickly deliver change for Britons.
The latest internal Treasury forecasts produced in recent days have revised inflation upwards to 3.2% for Q4 2026, the people said. If a US-Iran ceasefire isn’t quickly restored that’ll get worse and oil could rise to $150 a barrel, they show.
Either way, the Treasury will tell Burnham they see gilt yields rising further and at least one Bank of England interest rate hike by the end of the year, the forecasts will show. It means increased borrowing costs at a time when Burnham is considering how to fund a suite of potentially expensive policies.
The impact on prices will be most acute on energy and food, according to the forecasts, and Britain also faces supply chain problems with jet fuel, leading officials to warn air fares will rise. It will all add to pressure on Burnham to offer more generous cost-of-living support as an early top priority.
Senior civil servants will advise Burnham that he could face pressure from Trump to deploy British military assets in support of the US blockade. There is no expectation he will agree.
Officials will also warn Burnham that in the event a lasting peace deal is agreed between the US and Iran, he will have to decide whether to implement plans made by Starmer and Macron to deploy the military to lead a Hormuz de-mining mission.
Britain is also facing an increased risk of cyber attacks from Iran and Russia, officials will tell Burnham, posing another danger to the economy.
Burnham will be advised he’ll need to work to maintain Britain’s leadership role on Ukraine, starting by building a personal relationship with Volodymyr Zekensky.
Burnham will be told that much of the UK’s foreign policy is conducted at leader level and that he will be integral to ensuring Trump’s currently relatively favorable position toward Kyiv holds, as well as leading western allies on military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
Access talks so far have proved challenging because Burnham has yet to decide key cabinet and No10 appointments, meaning civil servants have been unable to directly prepare incoming ministers. The lack of transparent preparation ahead of the changeover is prompting a mounting sense of anxiety across the civil service, several officials said.
One dismissed as impossible the suggestion Burnham could hold a mega-budget in the autumn which would include spending plans for departments as well as fiscal measures. The person said the spending review, usually scheduled for the Spring, relied on months of negotiations with departments and said it would not be feasible for this to be hashed out in three months.
https://t.co/QkrK3tMHgS
These 46 affordable homes were built to Passivhaus standards on two sites in Harpurhey for local families, including 28 for Social and Manchester Living Rent.🌹
Both part of our Project 500 scheme with @ManCityCouncil to use our own land for more low carbon and social housing.🏡
Went shopping on our beloved UK high street. John Lewis, they give me a scratch card. JD Sports, I am encouraged to download a roulette app to win JD Cash. Take my daughter to the toy shop and half the stuff is surprise reveal collectibles. Gambling everywhere
I told a guy at a barbecue last weekend that I had been buying busted small-cap software stocks at 4x free cash flow, and he looked at me with the specific facial expression of a man who has just realized he is trapped in a conversation with someone who voluntarily reads 10-Ks on vacation. He asked, with great gentleness, if I had considered Nvidia. I said I had considered Nvidia in the way one considers jumping off a bridge: briefly, theoretically, and with a clear understanding of the outcome.
I told him I owned a company that sells dental practice management software to 11,000 orthodontists and that the CEO, a 64-year-old man named Greg who has not updated his LinkedIn since 2017, was, in my professional opinion, the single greatest capital allocator alive in North America today, and that I would, if legally permitted, have Greg’s name tattooed on my forearm.
He asked if Greg knew this. I said Greg did not know I existed, and that this was the foundation of our relationship and the source of its strength. He excused himself to go check on his children, who, I observed, were not present at the barbecue. I stood by the grill alone for the next 40 minutes, eating directly from a bag of buns, thinking about Greg, who at that exact moment was, somewhere in suburban Indianapolis, almost certainly buying back stock at prices that will, in 2031, be regarded as the single greatest gift any small-cap CEO has ever given his shareholders, and the host’s wife came over and asked, with palpable concern, if I needed a ride home, and I said no, I needed nothing, I had Greg, and Greg was enough, and I have not been invited back to that house, and I do not care, because Greg loves me even though Greg does not know I am alive, and the math, as it has always been in every great deep value trade in history, is the only thing in this country that has not lied to me.
I tried out the most normie thing I could think of. Watching YouTube whilst doing the dishes. It was a disembodying experience. I didn’t enjoy the warmth of the water or the humour of the video. Lost in the duality. But I didn’t think about too much other than the discomfort
Do you remember when you joined X? I do! #MyXAnniversary time flies had a few eras, most successful in terms of followers was the “mentally ill after breaking my knee” era in early 2013
Took a week off twitter. I had had enough of reading a schizophrenic shampoo bottle ingredient list for hours a day. I came back today and it’s wilder than I remember
ich goychud wurde gerade an der smith machine vor den augen einer foid von einem omega male geweightmogged als ich meine beta posture durch benchmaxxing verbessern wollte jetzt beim türkoid ein bisschen kebabslob holen aus frust
It's really fascinating to me how the kids are willing to talk about genuinely sophisticated & subtle human dynamics in actually lucid ways but only through the veil of the wryest, most ironic & detached possible language
Suggests some sort of heisenbergs uncertainty law of earnestness vs getting laughed out of the room
This is some kind of poetry right. Would a rose smell so sweetmaxxxxing. I like reading things I don’t understand on the first pass eg contemporary philosophy or the quoted tweet
Clavicular ran into ASUs top frat leader while JesterMaxxing w gymcells and instantly CLOCKED PEAK COPE 😳
The fratfraud leader went full UV Dodgemaxxing & Weightcopemaxxing inflating FAKE STATS to protect FRAME after being SKULLMOGGED while Clav DEEPLOCKED IN nuked cortisol stabilized AURA and dodged irreversible PSL bleed BY A MILLIMETER 💀💯
There’s a whole lot here but the thing I can’t imagine is, after all of that, using my middle class voice to say “please can you just” to the police officer I was trying to assault
It was a swamp when the romans found it. We used to go and lie in a bog for days to heal from common illnesses. We lost our connection to our natural landscape when we lost our forests
I've just seen the UK described as a swamp in response to a story about a homeowner's persistent damp issue and it feels so accurate.
We live on a swamp and it makes so much sense.