@RealOpenArmy Is this a good idea? Why reveal sentiment and perceived conviction to short sellers. Let's just keep tagging @nejatian to buy substantially.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian 🐻🐂. Zillow Offers was an inventory - owning iBuyer, so its shutdown doesn’t directly test this capital-light model. Zillow not offering the same package is not proof the model can’t work. Opendoor still has to prove the economics and customer demand, but the team is capable.
@pl88860@nejatian@rabois I think they're executing as fast as possible. If you have been paying attention he has been focused on the core building blocks needed for 3P - mortgage, title/escrow, renovations, utilities, consumer apps, scalable backend. I think the pace hereafter will be much faster.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian They won't have to do buy downs for 3P. They won't lose money for ever - I'm willing to give them room for some fumbles during the turnaround, but I have a strong feeling that they will pull it off.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian I will not attempt to throw a number here - I don't know that. But we're looking at multi billions in loan volumes over the years - a modest percentage would go a long way.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian The slope of the curve of loan amounts is what you need to look at to estimate how they're scaling. Basic extrapolation Sept - October projects $500M loan volume for 2027, but I think they're going to be way aggressive.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian I SEC'd that for you, with some estimates😆
$24 million in mortgage originations for the first nine months of 2026.
For average home price of $375,000 with 80% loan, that makes ~80 homes Jan - Sept.
October ballpark is ~32 loans (est $10M) given what he said in the earnings call.
@dayecapital@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian That's where I choose to differ. They started mortgage work from scratch this year (they had prior experience) and is already live in 20 states. I think they'll scale the list with/buy with opendoor by Q1 27. This is very fast IMO.
@BenLPatton@wsu311@nejatian@dayecapital Of course, but that's the whole point. Where do we look to - how it has been so far or where it is going. I believe the $OPEN team is competent to scale the new platform rapidly, adapt, and find solutions.
@dayecapital@wsu311@BenLPatton@nejatian Kaz has maintained the goal is to clear rather than hold even if it hurt margins, he hasn't sugarcoated it. The ability to adapt is what matters - I've been a $TSLA shareholder over the last decade and have seen this before. If management buys, that's all the confirmation I need.
@wsu311@BenLPatton@nejatian@dayecapital CM is a poor measure for the broader platform $OPEN is transforming into. Third-party listing, buyer's mortgage, or title and escrow transaction has different economics from buying a house, holding it, renovating it, and reselling it.
@BenLPatton@nejatian Honestly, I think it is fair for them to not disclose these numbers since they are in the middle of a turnaround. It was going to be messy and just gives shorts like @dayecapital ammo :). What we need is accountability in terms of share purchases.
@RealOpenArmy Not accusing you here, just tired of people endlessly cheerleading despite the management clearly failing their goals they themselves laid out. "Hold us accountable" so @nejatian should tell what this means.
@craig_pfau The company dangled KAZ warrants to trick shareholders, deceived with ANI profitability by 2026 promises. Unless there are insider buys, the management is not accountable for the results they are delivering. Instead of posting BS, demand accountability.