Daye

Compounding capital. Learning along the way.

[Daye @dayecapital]

$FNMA thesis is rather simple:

• Already repaid bailout many times over.

• Core guarantee biz: stable, high-margin engine backing most US mortgages.

• 3-step conservatorship exit: 1.) Acknowledge full senior pref repayment 2.) Treasury exercises warrants for 80% ownership 3.) Quick NYSE re-list

• Beats rushed IPO: protects affordability, taxpayers (mark-to-market), no market chaos.

• Unlocks huge common shareholder value as fully private, well-capitalized powerhouse.

• Intrinsic value today: massive upside unlocked; structured exit could re-rate shares to $35+ (5x+ current levels) once private & recapitalized.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@scottfelsenthal 🤐

[Daye @dayecapital]

@CaliRefugee1 Couldn't agree more.

[Daye @dayecapital]

The market is up over 2.5% today. Every major holding in $PSUS is up big. PSUS is down about 3%.

Volume tells the story. About 2 million shares have traded, and the session is not over. An average day is about 305,000.

Someone with size is selling into strength. The biggest holder in the fund is the Teacher Retirement System of Texas, about 10.1 million shares, over 10 percent of the fund, bought at $50 in the IPO.

If it is them, the Form 4 has to print by Wednesday.

$PSUS is trading at a 24.43% discount going into today.

Which leaves the real question. Does @BillAckman buy their shares?

[Daye @dayecapital]

@Speculator_io Wise words.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@granty3333 Not a fan of the structure.

[Daye @dayecapital]

Closed flat. Looks like someone did some buying. 3.64m shares traded!

[Daye @dayecapital]

@GardinerIsland Agreed! Some big buying going into the close.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@invest4gains @HHGF99 They do. Just nothing material in terms of revenue.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@GlobalWatchClub Indeed. I was there a few weeks back. Secondary market prices are actually cheaper in America.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@disclosuremonk if you are going to make assumptions, make the honest one. Loans used to help sell the homes are subsidized loans, and subsidized loans make little to no money.

[Daye @dayecapital]

Run the thought experiment on $OPEN.

They sell every house for exactly what the balance sheet claims the homes are worth. They repay the $2.364 billion of asset backed debt. They keep the $910 million of cash and settle the converts.

What is left is about $592 million. Roughly $0.64 a share.

Plus the asset light company. The mortgage business that originated $24 million of loans in nine months. The title, escrow and listing products with no disclosed revenue. All of it carrying about $37 million a quarter in fixed operating costs.

The stock trades at $1.40, a market cap of about $1.3 billion.

The market is paying full price for the liquidation, at management's own marks, and then paying a premium on top for a services stub whose costs are bigger than its business.

What am I missing? Where does the other $700 million live?

[Daye @dayecapital]

@BenLPatton If the asset light model replaces 1P, what is $OPEN actually worth?

Strip out the home buying and what is left is a mortgage shop that originated $24 million of subsidized loans in nine months, plus a set of services with no disclosed revenue worth the name.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@ConsensusGurus Not really when this is your chairman

[Daye @dayecapital]

About that contribution margin… $OPEN

[Daye @dayecapital]

@BobbyLaughlin01 @BillAckman I also caught that. Clarification would be good here.

[Daye @dayecapital]

@HiralKanaiya A future that doesn’t involve public markets.