Redistricting Rabbit

A stuffed rabbit who loves redistricting, but hates gerrymandering! I post maps of Pennsylvania, and I also tweet about PA elections and demographics.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@JMilesColeman Happy birthday, Miles! Hope you had a great day. :)

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@jphoebus @lissopoliss Good points, Joshua.

Melissa, one way I've been thinking about this is that any Dem could win the 10th in 2026, but what we really need is someone who can hold this seat for Dems long term.

In 2024, Stelson overperformed in the 10th compared to Harris, which was a good sign.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

Could someone explain to me why Bob Harvie only got about 65% of the vote in his primary last week? And in PA-10, why did Janelle Stelson also show weakness in the primary?

It worries me that strong candidates for the general election aren't doing well in Democratic primaries.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@jphoebus Oops, I didn't realize that! I appreciate you clarifying, and I feel dumb now.

In that case, I'm not worried about PA-10, but I still don't like how Bob Harvie in PA-1 only got about 65% of the vote. His challenger was a random person (not a commissioner, I'm almost certain.)

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@lissopoliss Fair enough, but compared to her primary opponent, wouldn't Stelson be more likely to beat Scott Perry this fall, and to hold onto this House seat for Dems in the long run?

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@jphoebus The weakness was in Dauphin County (see pic below), where some random person kept it surprisingly close.

But even in Cumberland County, Stelson only got about 70% of the vote, which just seems low to me, given how she was obviously the better candidate for the general election.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@wildforcongress @ArlingtonNatl You're so kind to be helping out with such a noble cause, Congresswoman!

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@Speeding_m Biden +6 in 2020 and Harris +2 in 2024. So, a little bluer than the current version.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

After the 2030 Census, #Pennsylvania will lose a House seat. In this map, I've drawn 16 districts that will be roughly equal in population by the end of this decade.

I'd really like some feedback. Have I respected PA's regions, or not? Feel free to ask me anything about the map.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@PAMapper I don't either, but it does end up helping to make the 8th more competitive than it would be otherwise.

If the 8th ends up being Luzerne, Lackawanna, Wayne, Pike, and Monroe County next decade (those five counties are roughly the right size for a district), it's like Trump +11.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@ZFlawles1s Absolutely, and this is such an astute point. :)

PA's geography works best with around 20 House districts. It means that Bucks, Chester, and Delaware County all get to have a district to themselves.

The one benefit of 16 districts is being able to combine Reading and Allentown.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@DerekHinPGH Sorry for the delay! PA-12 was exactly Harris+28 in 2024 and Biden+28.5 in 2020.

My main goal with PA-12 specifically was to not divide the Black population in Allegheny County, as the current map does. My PA-12 is a little over 21% Black, if that's of any interest.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@chuckpascal Understandable. :)

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@DerekHinPGH In the 2024 election:

PA-7 was Harris +4 (and Biden +8 in 2020)
PA-8 was Trump +9 (Trump +3 in 2020)
PA-10 was Trump +4 (Trump +3 in 2020)
PA-11 was Trump +9 (Trump +8 in 2020)

I appreciate the question, and I'm happy to answer any follow-ups! :)

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@Malliard Imagine being the House member who represents Alaska. :)

There's not much I can do about the 15th here, given how sparsely populated that area is, but I'll play around with the map and try some different configurations!

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@JeffDitzler Thanks, Jeff! Those are good suggestions, and that's how I typically handle that part of PA in my other maps, but I've been coming around to the idea that Reading should be with the Lehigh Valley. It only becomes possible when PA drops to 16 House seats, so it's hard to resist.

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@tschakey This is a great suggestion, but I kind of love my 7th district as is. It's almost 30% Hispanic (it combines Reading with the Lehigh Valley), and I'd fear that pushing it into northern Bucks County will dilute it. But I think you're right about Bucks not needing to be kept intact!

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@tschakey Great to see you back on here, Jacob! Also, that's a very cool banner photo you have (that old map of PA, which I've never seen before).

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@MattGrossmann Kevin Kiley, a Congressman from CA, introduced a bill last year to ban mid-decade redistricting, and it's profoundly upsetting to me that not a single Democrat has supported it.

Somehow, Dems manage to suck both morally and strategically. And I say this as a lifelong Democrat!

[Redistricting Rabbit @districtrabbit]

@LynnSTeague Agreed 100%, and well said, Lynn!