what kept me in crypto after losing most of my money in 2018?
greed.
i watched money appear and disappear faster than i thought possible.
i was also desperate. the alternative was 30 more years at a desk doing excel spreadsheets, and i did not want to suffer that fate.
people love to dress this stuff up as conviction or vision. mine was greed and a deep fear of the cubicle.
whatever it takes.
One day you wake up and you're 23 or 25,or 27 and suddenly everything feels like it's moving too fast. You miss something can't you quite name. Not a person, not a place, just a feeling. The feeling of being young, when everything was new and the smallest moments felt big. Late night talks with friends, walking home in the dark laughing about nothing, summers that felt like forever. You just want that again - to feel alive in the little things, to slow down, to be here, really here, before it all becomes another memory.
grayscale, bitwise, and vaneck all filed ETF products for HYPE. bitwise is already on their second S-1 amendment meaning active SEC iteration. coinbase custody and BNY mellon as transfer agent. same infrastructure backing blackrock's $21b bitcoin ETF. the SEC has never approved an ETF for a DEX token. zero precedent. but three asset managers with $25b+ combined AUM are spending real legal dollars betting they can get this through post-CLARITY Act. 12 employees, $900M annualized revenue, 99% margins. if this gets approved the comp shifts from "defi protocol" to CME Group overnight. if it gets rejected HYPE still trades on the strongest fee generation in onchain derivatives. the asymmetry is the filing itself forcing a valuation framework change regardless of outcome.
I think the key to a fulfilling life is to toddlermaxx. 5 kids in 10 yrs. Continuous chain of overlapping toddlerhood. No sleep. Constant chaos. New baby every 2 yrs. Never ending floor meltdowns, imminent danger & low impulse control keeping you on your toes for a full decade
No one likes being bearish, but there are times when "defensive pessimism" (as I call it) is the only rational stance.
All the outcomes before Trump's speech pointed to bearish outcomes of varying degrees.
The reality of where we are:
• The conflict will last AT LEAST another 2-3 weeks (hopeful scenario), which means that the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, which would be 46-53 days closed.
• Approximately 20–21 million barrels per day (bpd) flow through the Strait. If closed for 50 days, the cumulative deficit would be over 1 billion barrels.
• The current closure of the Strait of Hormuz is officially the largest oil supply disruption in human history. It dwarfs the 1973 Oil Embargo (which saw a peak cut of ~4.3 million bpd) and the 1979 Iranian Revolution (~5.6 million bpd).
• Inflation will rise over the coming months. Expect headline CPI to surge by 2-3% over the coming months as energy costs filter through the supply chain.
• Central banks are trapped. They will be paused (maybe hike), and very concerned to not stoke the flames of inflation this year. 1970s-style inflationary spiral is embedded in the psyche of many at the Central Banks.
• As energy costs act as a "tax" on consumers and collateral volatility rises, liquidity will tighten aggressively.
The market has remained very optimistic/complacent and hasn't priced in the above. I think the nothing ever happens crowd are wrong here.
In the same way that crypto participants were very complacent for months following its cyclical top, stock market participants are doing the same.
Once the market prices in the reality that is unfolding and some of the worser case scenarios (the Strait being closed for even longer than another 2-3 weeks) then I think you will find many opportunities out there.
hyperliquid HIP-4 prediction markets on testnet with mainnet imminent. the real alpha: unified margin with perpetuals. your $10m perp position becomes collateral for prediction market bets. polymarket requires fresh capital. HIP-4 lets you bet on iran outcomes using your BTC long as margin. everyone watching oil markets. nobody watching testnet.
Update: 🇸🇬 $SGD offramp is live.
More currencies are on the way:
🇧🇷 $BRL — Brazilian Real
🇨🇦 $CAD — Canadian Dollar
🇦🇷 $ARS — Argentine Peso
🇵🇭 $PHP — Philippine Peso
🇲🇾 $MYR — Malaysian Ringgit
🇮🇩 $IDR — Indonesian Rupiah
🇻🇳 $VND — Vietnamese Dong
If you want early access once they go live, reply to this post and we'll get you an invite code.
Singaporeans will get one-shotted by AI.
The entire country is literally educated to be middle management, middlemen and white collar service providers.
We’ve literally built the economy on offering the best NPCs to MNCs and we’re about to pay the price.
Without being able to see the future and without the benefit of hindsight to nail a perfect entry- you really can't go wrong buying spot ETH at these levels imo.
We are at the lows of what is essentially a 5-year long consolidation range (which also happens to be monthly demand) and whether we go lower or not this 5 year consolidation will ultimately resolve to the upside imo.
Could we go lower? Sure, it's possible. But any moves below this HTF range (if we get them) will be scooped up imo and are ultimately generational entries for what will be the next major expansion phase on ETH that will, imo, take us to 10k+.
If you don't have the patience to wait and endure some potential drawdown if this zone doesn't hold, then this post isn't for you.
If you think crypto is done for, and all time highs on majors like ETH will never be seen again, then this post isn't for you either.
For everyone else, and most importantly for those who are actually bullish on ETH, you can't go wrong at these price levels imo.
nothing beats the high of being young and newly rich off crypto
the exact moment u should cash out feels like the exact moment ur on top of the world and want to double down
but u don’t know ur wealth was accidental until u’ve already lost
cash out man
In my opinion the real reason Iran matters is the fact that it’s one of the only places on earth where a conflict can reliably spill from geopolitics into the global economy overnight. Iran sits on the Strait of Hormuz and the main energy shipping arteries, and it’s tied into the Russia,China and BRICS ecosystem through proxies, weapons flows, and sanctions workarounds. So a serious escalation there quickly becomes an oil shock, then a shipping and insurance shock, and then a global credit shock. And in a world already buried in debt, with tight fiscal margins and brittle supply chains, that kind of cascade can force governments into policy moves they could never sell to the public in normal times.
All the powerful incentives line up where a crisis lets governments reframe domestic pain as external necessity, justify emergency measures, and reorganize the economic plumbing. If oil spikes and trade routes choke, you get the classic chain reaction where inflation flares where it shouldn’t, growth stalls where it can’t, weaker credits break first, and the conversation flips from should we reform the system to we have to stabilize the system. That’s the moment resets happen and new rules around money movement, settlement rails, capital controls, fiscal military industrial coordination, maybe even a bigger push for digital payment infrastructure and tighter state oversight of strategic industries. And geopolitically, a showdown with Iran also functions as a message to the multipolar bloc that the US still owns the security architecture that underwrites energy flows, and by extension it still has leverage over how the world prices risk and where it parks capital.
The key point is this doesn’t require anyone to be openly trying to blow up the system. It can happen simply because institutions follow the path that turns messy structural problems into something politically explainable during a crisis. But the risk is obvious because escalation can spiral, an oil shock can split allies, and instead of reinforcing the dollar system it can speed up the very de dollarization and diversification it’s supposed to prevent.
That’s why Iran matters so much. It’s not just a target, it’s a switch. Once conflict there escalates, you can’t fully control the chain reaction you’ve set off.
Me watching retail fomo into peak-multiple late-stage privates only for insiders and VCs to dump post-lockup forcing bagholders to avg down into oblivion.
'Advice for guys in their 20's' -
Most dudes nowadays hit rock bottom in one way or another around age 27.
This is where you lose touch with all the "automatic" friend groups you had in HS and college (which were easy to form due to proximity - you were around them all day long)...
This is where your poor nutrition catches up with you...
This is where you notice the first signs of aging...
This is where you start really doing a normie job long-term for the first time and realize how soul-destroying it is...
As a result, this age often serves as a demarcation point for dudes.
The vast majority will fall into a life of "normal" choices and resulting misery from that point onward.
But a small % will completely reject this paradigm and go into schizo berserker mode instead and create an incredible life for themselves through sheer grit and determination.
The biggest paradox you need to internalize, however, is that the formula for a 'good life' at age 30 or 40 is going to be the exact OPPOSITE as at age 20.
You can do all the 'normal', societally-prescribed things today and have a genuinely awesome life at age 20 - go to school, play sports, hang out with your friends, go to parties, etc.
But if you do all the 'normal', societally-prescribed things from age 25 or so onward nowadays you will very likely have a miserable life.
You will end up 40 years old, significantly overweight, depressed, on multiple medications, 50% chance of divorce, in a job you hate under blue fluorescent lights all day, drowning in debt, and earning less than your father or grandfather did at the same age comparatively.
This is the sad reality of modern life (at least in the West).
The upside though is that there is more opportunity than ever before IF you are willing to be a contrarian and reject the normal choices and life path and look really weird and potentially even crazy to a lot of normies...
Embrace self-sovereign income, quit eating normie foods, count your calories, lift weights religiously, do combat sports or mountain climbing or some other sport that keeps you fit and gives you a community of like-minded dudes to hang out with, reject the pozzed insanity of modern politics and culture, utterly refuse to engage in the 'humiliation rituals' of modern life, read voraciously, go down rabbit holes, get into crypto or AI or etc, spend less than you earn, build wealth, and leave a legacy upon this earth.
Make the decision that you would rather fail 1000 times trying to lead a great life than to choose a life of shallow mediocrity and fear, and thereby insult your ancestors who sacrificed everything so you could be here, and insult the 8 year old version of you that dreamed of one day doing great things...
A wildly disproportionate number of Boomers got rich by pure happenstance, then used that blind luck to convince the public they’re some kind of generational wise man. In reality, they were dopey doofuses merely in the right place at the right time, rode a world-historic U.S. economic bubble from 1980 to 2008 where practically every asset class magically appreciated 25% year after year for decades, then caught a second wind of dumb luck over the last decade on the back of historic money printing. Many are, frankly, astonishingly ignorant imbeciles about pretty much everything, and their astonishing ignorance is why we now find our degraded country mired in the smoking wreckage of such unbelievably dire circumstances.