il fitz

il_fitz_patrick on Instagram

[il fitz @djilfitz]

Prepping tunes for tomorrow’s show on Mixcloud Live at 1210. Two hours of quality music. No ads. Better than the radio 🤪

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@StratLaboratory Great trade on Nasdaq today.
Don’t know how to exit.
😬

[Aimless @Aimless_now]

1/ A few observations on recent developments around @energypathways

Facts only. Sources and links below.

Then you can decide whether any dots are worth joining.

@CostainGroup @Siemens_Energy @hazergroupltd @KBRincorporated @BarrowRising @NatWealthFund @gbenergy

🧵👇

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@BBCScotlandNews A bargain in Renton 🫣🥴

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@StratLaboratory @alphatrends Can you follow briefly for DM please?

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@AnthonyRJoseph @markmcadamtv 🤦🏻‍♂️

[EnergyPathways @energy_pathways]

Last week, EnergyPathways plc #EPP CEO Ben Clube had the pleasure of speaking with Mike Zeller on BBC Radio Cumbria, where he outlined the impact that the MESH integrated energy storage project could have on lowering consumer energy bills and the significant opportunities it could bring to Barrow-in-Furness and the UK’s energy and industrial sectors.

MESH, also mentioned on BBC Radio News that morning, can support Barrow’s long-term development as a key hub for energy infrastructure and its potential to play a central role as part of the UK’s future energy system.

EnergyPathways’ MESH project, expected to be Britain’s largest integrated energy storage project, will bolster Britain’s energy security and lower consumer bills.  Designated a project of “national significance” by the UK Government, MESH combines compressed air electrical storage (“CAES”) with natural gas and hydrogen storage.

#MESH #CleanEnergy #EnergyBills #GasStorage #LDES #CAES #BBC #Cumbria @energygovuk @BBC_Cumbria @BBCNews

Check out the recording and join in with the conversation at: https://t.co/XfJCNaus9V

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@AlexsOptions Why that target? Not slightly lower at swing?

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@MiguelDelaney Football’s
Industrial
Fraudulent
Actors

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@ScotlandSky Really worrying that they back up the Joe Newell decision. Gaslighting!

Can conclusively see it hit his hand 🤦🏻‍♂️

[Reddit Investor @RedditDeluxe]

Let’s deal with the elephant in the room with #EPP: Funding and Timescale

Imagine this: A UK small cap company with an energy storage project in a safe jurisdiction, deemed “Nationally Significant” by the Secretary of State, awarded a vital gas storage license by the NSTA, partnered with Siemens Energy, Wood and Costain and signing port deals with the Association of British Ports. They’re set to build the largest energy storage project in the UK and the largest CAES project in the world at a time of critical demand, they’ve just released figures (corroborated by Siemens Energy) projecting a NPV8 of over a billion pounds for a modest proportion of their revenue streams and last week they met with government bodies at Number 10, DESNZ and the Department of Business and Trade (as well as global financial institutions/banks)… In spite of this, they’re valued at a mere £21m market cap… Why?

Well, there are 2 primary reasons and I’ll address them separately in the coming paragraphs.

First is funding. MESH requires several hundred million pounds to build out the project and despite stating it has offers of private sector finance in place and doesn’t need government money, in the last webinar it was hinted that they are a likely candidate for funding via GB Energy and/or the National Wealth Fund.

What seems to be spooking investors is the risk of a capital raise. So, let’s just put that to bed once and for all. At a sub £25m mcap there is no way in hell that an AIM retail cash raise will deliver even 1% of the CAPEX needed to build MESH, so in terms of funding, with regulatory approvals now in place, think global financial institutions, banks and government investment. This is not a project that will be calling on the illiquid AIM retail market for cash from here on.

Also, with reference to funding, the current £15m finance package will almost certainly become obsolete once strategic funding is announced. In my opinion, based on the funding/drawdown RNS, liquid cash reserves were required to advance initial work programs to satisfy the NSTA in order to obtain license approvals. Once project level finance is announced goodbye £15m facility.

The second issue is timeframe. With an FID of 2028 and project rollout in 2031, investors seem to think that until first revenues are delivered the valuation of the company will stay the same as now. It’s a bizarre outlook to have in terms of investment, but I understand this as AIM is a small cap market not used to dealing with national grade infrastructure projects, and post crypto, investors are attuned to rapid returns.
With this in mind, I’ll ask one question… When CAPEX level funding arrives in the hundreds of millions will EPP still be valued at £20-25m? The answer is a categoric NO!

And based on the rapid rollout required of EPP by the government, the funding needs to land soon.

Regarding political risk… the offering is also diverse enough to be valuable to any government from Labour to Reform so it is in effect apolitical. Is Reform going to turn down homegrown North Sea gas, domestic graphite for defence and Ammonia for the farming community? No.

With a project forecasting 20-25% annual yields over a lifespan of 30 years, potential government backed revenues in the hundreds of millions via OFGEM’s cap and floor scheme and media coverage on a national tier one scale, this will rapidly depart the AIM retail zone and enter a different league. The question is, when will this be recognised by AIM investors?

Having been an investor in EPP for nearly two years, and with recent regulatory approvals, I feel comfortable saying: it’s the one stock that I think will create generational wealth for investors.

Of course DYOR and read back through the past year’s RNS’s carefully and scour the new corporate investor presentation (link below), as it’s in the detail that the real value proposition of MESH is clear.

https://t.co/tncT949DTE

@aleabitoreddit @richrunyeon @Siemens_Energy

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@top_tipz Top 8 leagues - top 2 qualify automatically
9-6 - champions qualify automatically
Everyone else has to qualify

Won’t happen obviously but would be a better balance.

Just far too many sides from top leagues now

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@tesla_jokes Long overdue.
I’m a taxi driver and it’s awful at times.

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@HiddenGemsInves @energy_pathways
@avacta

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@ACSOMPOD Got to respect the current Board’s refusal to finish Celtic Park. Not many people have realised this is a mark of respect to Lisbon 🥴

[Reddit Investor @RedditDeluxe]

One of the few criticisms from Friday’s #EPP investor webinar was there was no mention of hard numbers in terms of revenues and NPV for MESH.

But after Fridays X post highlighting key meetings with DESNZ, Department of Business and Trade, as well as global financial institutions and banks, the reason for the lack of webinar detail seems clear… The numbers were withheld for confidentiality until presented to the government and institutional investors.

It’s worth mentioning before we begin, the figures in the presentation have been corroborated by Siemens Energy who deemed MESH “economically and commercially viable” in the RNS dated 28/04/26

Here are the numbers:

CAES LDES:
Asset life: 30 years
Net Revenues: £100m-£140m pa
NPV8 @ FID: £300m-350m

Gas Storage:
Asset life: 30 years
Net Revenues: £110m-£160m pa
NPV8 @ FID: £400m-800m

Total valuation at FID of £700m to £1.15bn

These are numbers impressive, but they are based only on the initial development of 4 compressed air salt caverns and 8 caverns for gas storage. However, the overall storage license area is able to allow construction of up to 60. Therefore, the quoted NPV8 numbers have the capacity to be multiplied significantly.

This also doesn’t include the revenue figures for hydrogen, high grade graphite and clean ammonia.

Using the projected figures for Graphite (circa 60,000 tonnes pa) and the target grade pricing of $10,000 per tonne (the aim is for the graphite to be refined via a study with Mitsui Japan to create nuclear/military grade graphite, elevating the price dramatically. See RNS 22/10/25 The company estimates revenues of £500m pa.

Hydrogen/Ammonia: This is a harder market to asses as an emerging sector. So based on the initial projected feedstock of 20,000 tonnes of hydrogen, let’s value it when it’s used to create Clean Ammonia as that market is very real.
Ammonia production of 110,000 tonnes pa is projected. The last domestic UK ammonia producer closed in 2023 and as of 2027 there’ll be a border levy on imports so this will affect chemical & farming Industries. Annual revenues for ammonia, based on volatile pricing revenues could be between £55-100m pa.

Risks:

Planning: Key regulatory hurdles now overcome with the gas storage license award and designation as a project of national significance… the section 35 has been massively under appreciated by the market and what was initially seen as a regulatory bump in the road on the way to license approvals is in fact a huge positive as the DCO process substantially streamlines the planning process from here on.

Politics: In terms of political risk the offering is diverse enough to be valuable to any government from Labour to Reform so it is in effect apolitical. (Is Reform going to turn down homegrown North Sea gas, domestic graphite for defence and Ammonia for Jeremy Clarkson and the farming community?)

Funding: Firstly, let’s put to bed concerns of the risk of a retail cash raise. The project needs £100’s of millions to build out MESH and that’s not coming from AIM retail: FACT. Short term the £15m funding is in place to satisfy the initial NSTA criteria (my opinion is this will be sidelined once project level funding arrives). As for strategic funding, this has already been stated it will come from global private sector institutions and potentially from GB Energy and National Wealth Fund, both of which have stated a clear mandate to invest in LDES and energy storage.

MESH has a suite of revenue streams offering diversification through products and industries at a time where they’ll be the only domestic producer of graphite and ammonia, they’ll effectively be doubling the UK energy storage capacity at a time of critical need and demand. And it requires little or no government funding (however GB Energy or National Wealth Fund may invest as mentioned in the webinar)
Therefore, in my opinion MESH will change the UK energy landscape and the lives of a lot of investors.

https://t.co/tncT949646

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@GeorgeFoulkes Sober up!

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@saniyafatma1278 Lionel Bitchie

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@JimDelahunt @JimSpenceDundee I think it hits his hand in an unnatural position and is a penalty.

I also think the handball rule - punishment way too severe vs crime - is a joke!

[il fitz @djilfitz]

@AdamDunn1872 First Class