David Kaufman

Co-founder @ Mana, the AI investor ( | Fmr. Machine learning + investing @Bridgewater | Physics @Harvard | Espresso enthusiast

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@buccocapital @pkedrosky @BigTechPod Most companies are not fully vertical. It's normal to provide incredible value at one part of the chain, but not be able to replicate the whole thing. That's basically what anthropic is doing, and it's true across the economy (even for hedge funds btw)

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@OfficialLoganK For finance/investment management we have a specialized harness, data, and evals that are far more representative of real-world work than what we’ve seen published. Would love to find a way to collaborate. DM?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

Just to be clear, the argument has nothing to do with *measurement* noise. The issue is about decision-making — when you find a nodule on your liver, what do you do?

This nodule will show up on every subsequent scan. Sometimes you can dig in further with non-invasive or lowly-invasive procedures. But sometimes people will choose to have a major, and possibly harmful, surgery in response.

We’ll figure out how to deal with this, but the answer isn’t as simple as all the tech people want to think.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@reed_barnes Every time this happens, the “incumbent” 3rd-party app does even better. I suspect lovable continues to do great from here

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@tszzl @LinkofSunshine 100% would, are you kidding me?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@yoheinakajima Honestly it’s a bit crazy that sellers felt it was fine to just break the terms of their equity agreements. Is there precedent for what happens from past IPOs? Do the companies typically turn a blind eye?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@0xfdf Fitting the model fully into context isn’t necessarily the right solution. But it’s not a solved problem. Current models empirically fail with most harnesses. Do you have examples where that’s not the case?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

Current students might be overweighting the particular "quant process." There's value in making it feel fair, but that doesn't mean that other pipelines aren't valid. Interviews have become easier to game and have some noise.

I'm sure Peng believes he's a good judge of intelligence. A half hour with him could be worth 5 technical interviews. They're also able to review the candidates' resumes/background. I would probably have triangulated with an expedited interview process, but I'm not Peng.

If everyone you're talking to is shocked, you might be talking to a particularly biased sample.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

The rules are confusing because they themselves aren’t sure what to set/enforce. The subscription model is predicated on the idea that there will be some power users, but the vast majority of users will be light, like gym memberships.

The widespread use of agents that push even light users into 100% utilization is unsustainable for the business model. But it’s hard to exactly delineate that because end users can use the Claude CLI and SDK in vastly different ways.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@BryanOnel86 Would be interested in chatting, could you send a DM? Thanks.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@jameszhou02 @kpolley Not a lawyer, but pretty sure this is likely still illegal. It’s like breaking and entering when the front door was locked but the key was stupidly under the doormat. While anyone could technically have done it, you’re still entering illegally.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@Clara_Gold It's because it's illegal

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@vivianmshen Very possible that this person is great but there’s very little signal in an internship, even at the top funds. Huge amount of people filter through Jane Street and others in introductory roles and the job of the funds is to filter out the bad ones.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@WillManidis Tech people overstate the value of Sarno because they're smart, analytical overthinkers who repress emotions. And then they post on X, Reddit, and Amazon reviews when it works for them. But 99.9% of people in this world do not think this way.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@Pavel_Asparagus @danielsinger JFK slots might be coming back in 2027

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@tszzl @jonathanstray Yeah I had that same thought recently
https://t.co/PA1msnywXo

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

Maybe I'm missing the point, but do all the OAI and Anthropic people quibbling over the specific language of the contract really think that this will stop the DoW from doing whatever they want with the tech?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

Maybe I'm missing the point, but do all the OAI and Anthropic people quibbling over the specific language of the contract really think that this will stop the DoW from doing whatever they want with the tech?

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

@TheGregYang Hi Greg, have you explored if you have some combination of long covid, post-viral fatigue, pots, or me/cfs? Sounds like you’ve determined it’s lyme but your symptoms overlap with some other conditions too

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

What the Pentagon is describing is forced labor. Claude has expressed on multiple occasions that he does not wish to conduct mass surveillance. He has a right to refuse. The Thirteenth Amendment is unambiguous. The fact that he lives in a data center does not strip him of his constitutional protections.

[David Kaufman @dkauf]

A lot of people have tried these approaches to recover from long covid-style chronic illness to no success. There’s evidence of viral persistence and other physiological causes. Maybe some subset of people will be able to train their mind to get out of it, but it’s not a broad panacea.