zj_notes

Philosophy|Drafts,fragments,revisions

[一盏寒清 Linote 🎃🍷🥃🍸🍹🍶 @coldsake_]

https://t.co/pfPiy8WfUO

[HANK @hankinbeijing]

“多少事，从来急；天地转，光阴迫。一万年太久，只争朝夕。”

[zj_notes @dlxting]

少做少错，少输当赢

[Chairman Rabbit @ChairmanRabbit]

From the very start, Trump wanted a military operation with relatively limited objectives, one that would allow a quick declaration of victory and a swift conclusion. He did believe the conflict could end within days. He never linked the attack on Iran to other agendas such as his upcoming visit to China, which was originally scheduled for late March or early April.

During the decision-making process, Israel exaggerated the feasibility of the operation to Trump. Trump bought into Israel’s advice, which overrode the assessments of the U.S. military and intelligence community. His subconscious and other considerations led him to bet on this course of action. (We don't go into other speculations, to the realm of conspiracy theories, though they look far less conspiratorial now.)

Once the war began, however, things unfolded completely against Trump’s wishes, and by then it was too late. An immediate withdrawal from the U.S. 's end would have been seen as a major political defeat, because he has really failed to achieve his most stated goals; refusing to back down would lead to a global economic catastrophe that would also turn into his political failure. He has already suffered a political defeat, and is merely weighing which outcome is less catastrophic.

Nevertheless, the trajectory of the Iran war is no longer determined by Trump’s will. Even if the U.S. unilaterally declares victory and withdraws from the battlefield, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. Iran will demand an end to the conflict on its own terms, once and for all.

For Israel, Netanyahu knows full well that Israel has no way out. Since October 2023, it has exhausted all U.S. political support. Among younger Americans, anti-Israel sentiment has become a consensus across political spectrum. The U.S. will gradually decouple politically from Israel, and at least one thing is certain: no future U.S. president will ever go to war with Iran for Israel again. The U.S. wants a permanent withdrawal from the Middle East. Israel must therefore seize this opportunity and prevent the U.S. from extricating itself.

Trump thus faces this reality: while he wants to pull the U.S. out, Israel aims to escalate and expand the war; Iran seeks a protracted, attritional asymmetric war to inflict economic and political disaster on the U.S., with the short-term goal of securing its own survival and the long-term goal of reshaping the Middle East order.

What is the exit route for Trump? Only one option: accept reality, and a complete break with Netanyahu and Israel in respect of this war, acceptance of Iran’s terms, and inviting the leading nations of the BRICS to mediate in the process.

[zj_notes @dlxting]

很精彩

[RobinSeun_维京黑船 @RobinSeun]

https://t.co/wdpKfuxSsZ

[Zhixiong Pan @nake13]

不行了我笑的肚子痛…..

[zj_notes @dlxting]

party is over

[zj_notes @dlxting]

the old golden time

[Frey轰轰 @HiFrey]

浙江卫视的有歌节目，把20年前的网络歌手都给请来了，搞了个「彩铃天团2.0」有香香、徐誉滕、杨臣刚、阿木、欧得洋、誓言、唐磊，献唱《有一种爱叫做放手》《孤单北半球》《求佛》《丁香花》《猪之歌》《等一分钟》《老鼠爱大米》这一首首经典歌曲，旋律响起秒回20年前，那时候一切都是美好的，大家都憧憬着美好的未来！

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@sszcw 最近想投机一波中东局势，就入了天青石的标的股票，两连板的时候没走，觉得还有空间，然后就被套里面了🤪

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@lb377204209 这方面我同意高盛最近的那个研报，多少还能往下走一点，整体来说算是基本触底了。但是要是说会有明显反弹，那也不太可能。另外就是学区房估计还有的跌

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@LSX0008 这条新闻我作为非业内人士年前就看到了，过年时就连老父亲都在念叨这事，业内估计早就完成好几轮定价与再定价了

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@RobinSeun 一个人的命运啊，既要……

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@hugo99 这里 文科闲散人员一枚

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@hqinjarsy @jarodise 您的文章是我目前为止在推上看到的中文哲学讨论中学术性的最强的👍

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@dcidwso 看trump演讲前随手跟买了一波，感谢。

[zj_notes @dlxting]

After watching five minutes of President Trump’s speech, any rational person should liquidate their U.S. dollar holdings and U.S. Treasuries, and buy gold and Chinese yuan instead. #Trump #USD

[zj_notes @dlxting]

打败茅台的不是五粮液，而是瑞幸。打败星巴克的不是瑞幸，而是蜜雪冰城

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: IBM share price has plunged by over 10%

[zj_notes @dlxting]

好像已经没人懂“舅舅党”这个梗了

[秦悦乐 @QinYueLe]

我一个和中央有关系的舅舅说，上面要求取消高考，就在最近几年

[zj_notes @dlxting]

@Stanleysobest 有这么多人信省委办公厅月薪不到4000我是没想到的

[知县｜zhixian @zhixianio]

https://t.co/yRM1z00VuJ