Darshan N Mehta

Quant Trader. Decoding Markets through appropriately created Datasets.

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

Market can show a crazy bullish run up in the coming days.. Bulls are having tight grip on bears as per my datasets. We can see decent upmove in index heavyweights. Get ready for going long 💯.

#Ukraine #nifty50 #StocksToBuy #stocks

[Nithin Kamath @Nithin0dha]

My biggest nightmare as a broker is what’s happening in the Korean markets right now. The source of my nightmare is the way our MTF book has been growing along with the industry as a whole. In terms of pure risk, MTF is by far the biggest risk we have taken since we started in 2010.

More specifically, the risk lies in our ₹9,000-crore book: at least half of it is in non-F&O stocks, which can hit lower circuits every day without offering an exit.

The problem with Korea is the one-way rally. When markets go up so sharply, leverage builds up because collateral values increase, leading to more borrowing and so on. The second layer of risk comes from the derivatives complex and leveraged ETFs, which further exacerbate moves on both the upside and downside.

When the markets fall, things get really ugly. The first leg of selling tends to be small, but as collateral and margin values drop, margin calls increase, leading to forced selling. Forced unwinding from leveraged ETFs makes this worse, and this downside move becomes a self-reinforcing loop until things stabilize.

Btw, MTF became popular only in the last 3–4 years, and we really haven’t seen a sharp market crash similar to the KOSPI since COVID. Even though MTF as a percentage of market cap is small, if the Indian markets were to fall sharply, it would cause severe sell-offs across many small- and mid-cap stocks. Brokers today typically provide MTF on ~1,500 stocks. 😬

Luckily, thanks to SEBI, we've avoided the worst excesses that typically arise from unchecked leverage.

Btw, my colleague @prayagverma maintains a site with really good market stats, including MTF, here: https://t.co/uRJrvOvbHK

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@ABVPPunjab @BJP4Punjab Hey guys, what's up with you? Isn't this the time to stop being lazy and ask for resignation of Punjab's Education minister. We have an election soon, let's atleast now work hard to make a gain in Punjab? How long are we going to rip of Modi's brand!

[BCCI @BCCI]

5⃣3⃣8⃣ Intl Matches 🙌
1⃣7⃣,2⃣6⃣6⃣ Intl Runs 👌
8⃣2⃣9⃣ Intl Dismissals behind the stumps 👏

Winning Captain of ICC Men's T20 World Cup 2007, ICC Men's ODI World Cup 2011, ICC Champions Trophy 2013 🏆🏆🏆

Happy Birthday to Former #TeamIndia Captain @msdhoni, an absolute icon of the game 🫡

[Alok Jain ⚡ @WeekendInvestng]

India real estate cannot imagine this yet

[Piyu @PiyuduttaPiyu]

Kunal Shah is going to lead WhatsApp globally.
No IIT. No IIM.
His CV wouldn't have made it past the Indian corporate HR system :)
The West bets on builders, while Indian corporates still rely on IIT/IIM badges.

[Ninda Turtle @NindaTurtles]

Hello @AdityaDharFilms,

Do not think what is happening is going unnoticed. The audience which gave so much love to Dhurandhar is seeing how the whole Bollywood Khan gang is promoting Alpha but they ignored Dhurandhar like it never existed.

We audience have your back. Keep producing gems like Dhurandhar and every true Indian will keep supporting you 🔥♥️

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@sourabhsiso19 System that I am using is already Long Vol. We can discuss it's performance, trade execution in DM if you're interested. It accumulates CEs or PEs depending on a Macro signal generated every and attempts to benefit from range expansion.

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@Akshat_World He had also recommended Rajesh Exports 😆

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@kirubaakaran Owqo

[Siddharth's Echelon @SiddharthKG7]

Don’t feel your city is safe. Especially if you are in Mumbai, Bengaluru, Pune like cities.

The place where I live in Mumbai, 2BHK rent is ₹80k to 1 lac and this area is not even Bandra or some legacy area. It is just ridiculous and everything around gets costlier accordingly.

For eg- There is a 8*14 feet shop nearby.
3 guys share it. 1 irons clothes, 1 is a tea seller, and 1 sells paan-cigarettes. Tea guy pays ₹10k rent. Paan wala pays ₹15k rent. Ironer pays ₹25k rent plus electricity bill as he uses half the shop.

Now as the prices move up, it will be impossible for these 3 guys to pay rent for it. Some coffee shop or some opulent BS will take this shop on higher rent—which will make rent of flats go up even more.

There is no control. While there is half biryani costs ₹500+ now, there is a huge population which is surviving on bad food, adulterated items, and unbelievably expensive extra items like the cylinders people bought for ₹4000 in Delhi NCR.

Do you think all that goes under the rug with no reaction at all?

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@Astro_Panditji_ 28 May 2000

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@Debabrata_222 34%

[Nilesh Shah @NileshShah68]

In Arth shashtra Aacharya Vishnu Gupta - Chanakya advised that The King should collect taxes like Bees connect Honey from the flowers.

Taxation of Equity Arbitrage Fund is the perfect example of Aacharya’s advice.

In FY 25 Kotak Equity Arbitrage Fund ( KEAF ) Regular Plan Growth option delivered a return of 7.50 % post expenses.

The Short term Capital Gains along with cess and surcharge for FY 25 is ~ 23.92 %

The Government, Regulator and Exchanges generates revenue from the arbitrage trades under following heads

-Stamp Duty on Broker Contract Note
- SEBI Charges
- Transaction Tax
- GST on SEBI and Transaction Tax
- GST on Brokerage
- STT
- Stamp Duty collection on Subscriptions to KEAF

Total Expenses incurred by KEAF in FY 25 on above heads was Rs 1,050 Crore on an Average AUM of Rs 52,440 crore or 2 % Fund Average AUM or 27 % of Post Expenses ( net ) return of FY 25

Total Revenue ( Tax + Transaction charges ) to the Government as a % of net Return is ~ 51 %

The transaction costs incurred by the counter party on the KEAF trades will be similar ~ 27 % Post expenses return of FY 25

Total Revenue ( Tax + Transaction charges ) to the Government after adding counter party transactions costs as a % of net Return is ~ 78 %

One swallow doesn’t make a summer.

Let us look at three year calculations.

The three year numbers aren’t far apart ( even though STCG was lower at 17.94 % in FY 23 and 24 )

Total Revenue ( Tax + Transaction charges ) to the Government as a % of net KEAF Return between FY 22 to FY 25 is ~ 48 %

Total Revenue ( Tax + Transaction charges ) to the Government after including counter party transactions costs as a % of net KEAF Return between FY 22 and FY 25 is ~ 75 %

Investors are happy with post tax return of arbitrage fund due to STCG rates.

The Govt. laughs all the way to the bank as it collects Gross revenue of 78 % and net revenue of 51 % from arbitrage fund returns.

Aacharya Vishnu Gupta will be very happy to see that his advise is followed in taxation of Arbitrage Fund.

Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@PranavaBhardwaj Agreed. Back in the day he would raise macro issues jo comprehend nai kar pati common Janta. Acha transition hai.

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

A shocker. I guess Priyanka Ji is sincerely thinking of entering the Electoral Politics.

Robert Vadra could soon go behind bars!

[Economic Times @EconomicTimes]

📝🔍 ‘List #Nehru’s mistakes, set aside time for #debate, close the chapter once & for all,’ #PriyankaGandhi to #PMModi 🎤⚖️ https://t.co/8iL4TCRPhQ

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@92Investor @Akshat_World Typo , Psychologically*😂

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@92Investor @Akshat_World Yeah, psychological Humans carry an emptiness, a void. This can be easily exploited by ensuring that void is filled with Hatred against fellow beings. Some fill the void with ambition, some with hatred. I always believe, one should never idolise politicians and follow an ideology

[Milind Deora | मिलिंद देवरा @milinddeora]

Mumbai’s air-pollution crisis is no longer a seasonal issue — it is a public-health emergency. India needs a nationwide war & a national consensus against air pollution.

#Mumbai is gasping for clean air. As a Mumbaikar & a public representative, I believe we deserve better. It is my duty as your MP to stand with you on this growing concern.

I have written to the @mybmc Commissioner urging immediate & extraordinary action, including a temporary halt on all digging & construction work until air quality improves.

Let’s come together & build a public-awareness movement for clean air.
@narendramodi @Dev_Fadnavis @mieknathshinde @JPNadda @byadavbjp

[Darshan N Mehta @dnm_Orignal]

@92Investor @Akshat_World Yeah, maybe he is not. But I still would beg your pardon and differ on country uniting.. as today harmony is far too less and Citizens are heavily Polarised.. It's probably a global phenomenon...