Guy Davis

Ok, I came crawling back.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@IssoriaB Besides me lol

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@abroninvestor Yes and the fact that they are a co-investor in the funds ensures it wouldn't be clean. I ultimately hope they wouldn't have to sell it and could transition towards it as a lynchpin of the business.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

1. While I continue to eat a sh*t sandwich on my Lendlease $LLC.AX purchase, the reaction to the Italian sale looks very overdone imho.

Activists who bought at $11 are now capitulating at $2.50 and there is isn't the liquidity for an orderly exit on top of being dumped from the index in March.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@abroninvestor Thanks Andrew, yes you're certainly not investing with a high quality team here. The new CEO will be interesting.
I remain hopeful the equity cushion is enough for a good outcome and sentiment looks about rock bottom, but I've been wrong many times.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

Yes, that's the crux of it. Are you willing to step in when the short term points to more pain?
I generally feel like you need to get in front of a dynamic like this, as you're only one announcement away from the stock ripping. Ie. Better than expected price for Keyton or a sale of funds management.

[Issoria Baumanni @IssoriaB]

@dodgingalpha Gotta be able to stomach Allan Gray punching you in the face day after day. Although if they want to generate tax losses to offset gains elsewhere, maybe this month will mark the bottom?

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

5. The biggest risks are the potential for rising rates and a possible capital raise under unfavourable conditions if the CRU sales stall.

Not for the faint-hearted but we're paid to take on uncertainty.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

4. My rough (conservative) SOTP for $LLC.AX:
Net Assets ($5b) + premium of funds management over book (1.8b)= $6.8b

Minus $2.4b in Barrenjoey's estimated write downs and $1b of further costs to manage and wind down the CRU= $3.4b

Or $5 per share, which also gives no credit to the profitable construction business or pipeline.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@mr_deepvalue Cringe

[GSP @GlobalStockPick]

It's time again..

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@galumay It's actually scarier than that. Never owned a stock in his life previously and he's Dutch so even tighter than I am normally 😂

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

Just heard from an NZ mate basically remembering I was interested in shares and telling me he's been buying some (no previous interest). No names mentioned yet, any guesses what he'll say?

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@manuniteddd4 Thanks bro, I'm so sorry you were tragically butthurt and triggered by something that wasn't even remotely personal to you.
But don't fret, you're going places with that Alphabet thesis and I'll no doubt serve you at Maccas one day😂

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

I wonder what young Buffett going door-to-door buying Union Street Railway at a fraction of its cash would say if you told him 70 years later $BRK would be pouring money into $GOOG at 30x during a frantic capex bubble for the ages?

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@manuniteddd4 Ok King, you win the reply guy achshually award for the day lol

[Hedgewatch (Brevarthan Research) @Hedgewatch1]

@puppyeh1 Gets in there before Elon, so thats funny. We are rapidly approaching the dotcom heights....Issuance usually drives a market top...on a 180 day lag for those lock ups to expire!

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@puppyeh1 Not many are thinking deeply at this point. But yes, hard agree.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@manuniteddd4 If a lesson you've taken from WEB is that price paid in relation to earnings is "pretty useless" there's no helping you lmao.
30x extremely generous too thanks to SBC.

[Guy Davis @dodgingalpha]

@manuniteddd4 If a lesson you've taken from WEB is that price paid in relation to earnings is "pretty useless" there's no helping you lmao.
30x extremely generous too thanks to SBC.