Good Morning
Analysis:
Out of stat HOD w/ in stat LOD and a break above P!2 mid with stats stacking below price:
- open prices 1-7am
- 3 bearish levels
- midnight open
Today will be the day for me pesonally within my system to fully confirm what type of potential weekly candle we could be in which bleeds into the daily candle creation.
Statistically, we form weekly lows on Monday / tuesday in bullish weeks.
We have currently formed the weekly low on Monday with an in stat LOD today at 3am (although it is the weakest and lowest occurring of the 4 times)
With today being tuesday if we have a bullish daily candle -> that sends this weekly candle higher away from the weekly open thus continuation to the upside.
If we flip bearish we could get back to the weekly open therefore I will wait for wednesday to form an idea what type of weekly candle we are in
With sll stats stacking below price this gives me a classic mean reversion signature or if we break above P12 high (29,586.25) and we stay above it by 10am without taking stats below -> trend confirmation to the upside
Trade Ideas:
Scenario #1 - Price keeps pushing to the upside -> breaks P12 high -> RTH opens at/near new HODs -> breaks below for heavy cashflow shorts to stats below....breaks above I will wait for 0945 to join longs for continuation
Scenario #2 - Price starts mean reverting in the pre-market -> RTH opens at/near P12 mid -> breaks above for extended cashflow longs for new LODs
Have a wonderful day
NQ morning plan for Tuesday 🧵
High of day is out of stat (06:48), low of day is in stat (03:09), and the stats are stacking below price. The lean is a new high at the open, then the reversal back down.
4/ Last two sessions: Asia and London both broke long (trending). That’s the other side of the read: if 08:30-10:00 holds the new high instead of rejecting it, the long is the trade. The 0930 break decides.
Candle Science probability flag: read the last two candles and place a flag on the current one. How C2 closes sets the flag for C3. That single relationship is the whole engine.
I’ve been working on being patient, not forcing trades, and accepting a loss without letting it dictate my next decision. Still plenty to improve, but I’m proud of the progress. One trade, one decision at a time.
Really thankful for how my trading has been going lately. The Performance mean a lot, but seeing the work I’ve put into self-control start to show means even more. That’s been what holds me back more often than not.
8/8
My takeaway: separate the quality of the plan from the quality of the execution.
The upside objective aligned closely with my final exit. Early attempts cost $287.50; the later entry and scale-outs recovered it
A profitable evening, with entry discipline still worth reviewing
6/8
The third position made +$925.50 gross.
Subtract the first two losses:
−$182.50
−$105.00
Evening result: +$638 before fees.
Flat at 7:03 p.m. Chicago time. One winning position out of three; its dollar gain outweighed both losses.
7/8
The execution wasn’t a textbook match to the preferred setup.
My first entry was at 6:11 p.m. ET, before the 15-minute Gunship range finished forming. The recovery entry also came before the full Asia range was complete.
The levels aligned better than the entry timing.