Dominick D’Angelo

Director of Research at O’Keefe Stevens Advisory
Substack:

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

Really enjoyed chatting with @stockspinoffss about Topgolf, Callaway, and $MODG. We dug into the Topgolf sale, capital structure, what the 40% stake really represents, and how the core golf business looks from here. Always fun to talk golf and investing at the same time. https://t.co/H3t4nOJrxe

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

Interesting paper on housing demand. Something I have thought about a lot is discussed in depth here. Do we get out of the housing supply/demand imbalance when boomers either downsize or move to senior living facilities?
Household math: roughly 8.6 million net new households from 2025 to 2035 and 5.1 million from 2035 to 2045 under the Census main series, versus 10.1 to 13.5 million per decade historically.
HOUSING - That translates to a baseline demand of about 1.13 million new units per year for 2025 to 2035, falling to about 802,000 per year in the following decade.
On the other side, I think what might be missing from the paper is people living longer, coupled with aging in place. If we assume people will live longer (not a hard assumption to make), does this offset decreased fertility rates? Ie does the population grow because fewer people are dying, not because people are having more kids? Historically, having a living great-grandparent was incredibly rare. Even with slower household formations, I suspect it will become more of a norm over the next 30 years that a great-grandparent is alive.
https://t.co/0hzhgDXVF2

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

This was part of our $CALY thesis originally. I thought the Toptracer technology was severly undermonetized and could be a hidden valuable asset obscured by the larger TopGolf and Club business. Simulators continue to become more popular (even if I think they may make someone worse).

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

Susquehanna note “Importantly, we estimate this will be additive to the total number of original content shows with new start times likely to be in the ~10 p.m.-12 a.m. window.”

This is the schedule optimization Dolan has been talking about. Question will be. Can they ever play this after a concert. Start bundling packages - concert + show.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$SPHR - I think people might be missing the importance and rationale for The Rocky Horror Picture Show. I expect this to be a 2-3 night show (Thursday, Friday, Saturday), not a WoZ-type show that's shown multiple times daily. This will likely be a late night show, shown at 9pm-10pm, and will be additive to the show slate on a day. Today, shows are 3 hours apart and WoZ is shown at most 3 times per day (11am, 2pm, 5pm, or 8pm). For example, this Friday, WoZ is shown at 5pm and 8pm. I can see them adding Rocky Horror at 10:30pm (horror movies, I suspect, show better at night). Or they could change WoZ to 4pm and 7pm. Either way, I expect this to add ~100 shows/year.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@NoonHillCapMgmt @marginofdanger Well that makes a lot more sense. There’s zoom links at the bottom of the judges page - thought it was open to the public.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@marginofdanger Is $FPH going to court today?

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@NoonHillCapMgmt @marginofdanger Any idea what happened? Judge call in sick? The Zoom never started.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$BGC - Out with their qtr. end update. Rev & Pre Tax Earnings expected to come in at the midpoint of the guide of Rev- $815m & Pre tax earnings - $187m. Overall volumes were down pretty meaningfully in Q2, with the exception of the interest rate product. Looking to hear more about cost reductions and margin expansion on the call when they report.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

A few months ago, I had the opportunity to tour KBS Golf Shafts' manufacturing facility in Taiwan and meet several members of the management team. Here is my report on what I learned! What an amazing experience it was. $KBSX
https://t.co/AbZIB5F0Zc

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$BLKB has gone from S&P 400 mid cap at the start of the year to basically out of all indexes (should today's price hold at the next rebalance). If I were a betting man, later this year is the software rebound trade. So much forced selling pressure. Software has gone from must-own to must-avoid (in almost no time)

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

Is anyone long $BLKB? The stock goes down every day. How is there not a bid from Clearlake at some level?

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@DaveWeLike - You seeing conflating reports on whether Netflix bid for Roku? I have one article saying, "According to a Semafor report, Netflix aggressively pursued Roku but was ultimately trumped by Fox’s winning cash-and-stock offer valued at $160 per share." Then a report from Baron's this AM "When reached for comment by Barron’s, a Netflix spokesperson said it did not put in a bid for Roku and was not pursuing Lionsgate."

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@buccocapital $FC isn’t exactly this but have to imagine there’s some correlation between the two end markets/users.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@HiddenGemsInves I’m finding the same thing. Look elsewhere from AI and you can find many interesting situations.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$SEG $ATNI $SKYH - Three Interesting Ideas from the Ideas Conference. Takeaways from presentations and management meetings. https://t.co/XQJuHx6NdY

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

@DaveWeLike Not sure how this is the end sale price. This has to be a tell to others that “hey we’re open for business come give us your best offer.”

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$FOX acquiring $ROKU for $160/share in cash + stock. Honestly kind of a disappointment given thought ROKU was a $180+ stock in the near term. Might hold some to see if there’s a little bidding war.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

On a $LUV flight from Tampa to ROC. 30 people on this 737. 1/6th full. What a business.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

Wondering if there’s a broader problem with fast-casual business models. Went to $CAVA last night, and for $20 I got lettuce, cucumbers, and pickles with a tablespoon of tzatziki (the free drink doesn’t make up for this). They were out of some ingredients, and I basically ate a dry salad. I thought $CMG was the only one with this issue. Not going to extrapolate this experience across all restaurants, but I find it incredible that it feels like I haven’t had a pickup order be complete or correct in over a year.

[Dominick D’Angelo @DomInvests42]

$BGC - Nice w/w volume increase at FMX.