Commercial Real Estate is a BIG ongoing problem for the non-SIB banks...
50% of people haven't gone back to office...and as leases come up for renewal they will just not be renewed, leaving a long-tail of non-performing loans on the books of the regional banks.
There are $2trn of loans to the CRE sector in the smaller banks (according to the IMF).
No amount of low rates will get people back to the office. The world has changed.
As the ECB did back in 2012, the Fed is going to have to take a lot of non-performing loans onto their books to keep the system solvent.
This whole situation is much like the EU banking crisis in 2009 to 2012.
I just don't see an outcome to this banking mess without a few more Trilly tacked onto the Fed balance sheet over the next 18 months and rates slashed.
I also struggle to see a fast rebound in employment at the back end of this recession due to AI eating jobs.
Fiscal stimulus will be writ large in 2024, ahead of the election.
QE will work in goosing up the value of a lot of the other collateral (outside of CRE) but at the cost of lowering the value of the denominator (i.e everyone gets poorer in asset terms except for the 1%).
This is the way the world works now.
1/3 This giveaway is a HOOT🦉
We're inspired by the creativity of our community and the #moonbirds flock caught our owl eyes. On May 5th, we'll be giving away 1 @moonbirds#NFT #3382 to a new or existing Gemini + @niftygateway user!
MUST RT this tweet + follow the rules to enter:
@illuminatico @Illuminaticro @Chrono_swap hey buddy (@Illuminaticro).
clarify rules please? site says 'Hodl 23000' for airdrop. then says for 'airdrop whitelist' you have to LP on chronoswap. do we have to hold 23000 SEPARATE from the LP? if we put some or all of the 23000 into the LP will that count for airdrop?
48 hours till our Community Call 📺
This time, we will select giveaway winners from our live audience during the call 🔥
Retweet this tweet and see you there! 😉
Join our second SubQuery Session here:
https://t.co/5sSFtqRxMX
@officialwesaygm@rajgokal Finally solana has got it all to flip ethereum. Imagine when meme coin people realize how much better things work here, without ridiculous gas.