Nick D'Onofrio

Natural resources & infrastructure.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

“The business of life is the acquisition of memories. In the end, that’s all there is.” - @bp22

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

A great report out from TPH and my favourite US E&P Analyst Matt Portillo:
🛢️"We expect U.S. crude production is peaking now...since 2010 U.S. shale has accounted for ~90% of global supply growth, with the market pre-shale a distant memory for most investors."
🛢️"The next fifteen years will look nothing like the past fifteen years. With the role of short-cycle resource diminished, investment cycles will elongate, requiring higher prices (TPHe >$80/bbl) to incentivize project development to offset structural declines."
🛢️ "No single resource can replace U.S. shale, leading to broad-based investments across geographies."
🛢️"These trends favor structurally higher commodity prices to incentivize global investment and exploration while also underpinning the returns needed to justify the continued development of U.S. shale as inventory depletes (as demonstrated in our Bakken deep-dive). This comfortably justifies our $80/bbl mid-cycle base case, but >$100/bbl is possible due to resource scarcity if exploration success or general upstream investment underwhelm."

Despite near-term uncertainties over the next several months, "we remain bullish"™️ and believe we stand on the cusp of a major, multi-year bull market for oil.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@hkuppy Wait until you learn about “slivovitz”

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Buying oil stocks when @DavidRamsdenWoo is selling..

Trade the trader… this has to be close to max pain?!?!

[david friedberg @friedberg]

why not just raise income tax rates?

because your real intent is not to just “provide healthcare”.

you’re masking that you are proposing the creation of, for the first time in the 250 years of this American republic, an organized government seizure of private property from citizens.

you’re calling it a “wealth tax” or a “billionaires tax” or “millionaires tax” or whatever nom du jour polls well. but at the end of the day, it’s the seizure of private property from citizens by the government. citizens that earned money, paid their fair taxes on those earnings (53% if they live in California) and are now being told they need to hand over after-tax assets because the government has failed to provide promised services with the revenue it’s collected, and are now re-casting their own failure to be a socio-economic inequity that must be justly resolved... a slippery slope that has never gone anywhere good (see economic effects in USSR, Cuba, Venezuela, France and Norway wealth tax etc.)

the American founders fled tyranny in Europe and this amazing nation was populated by immigrants (myself and your parents) from around the world not just looking for a “better life” but for a place where they could have freedom from tyrannical governments that can take what they want from private citizens. a great nation borne of property rights, the rule of law, and endowed freedoms to believe, speak, or act. these principles led to the greatest run of innovations, successes, and widespread increase in prosperity, for all citizens, ever seen.

the citizens, the individuals, not the institutions, delivered this progress. those who invented, who toiled, who bled, who sacrificed, who took risk and persevered, who led, and who changed the world, are not charlatans, kleptocrats, or oligarchs. they’re what made us all better off. prosperity is a measure of america’s success, not its failure.

it is your principle that is so offensive, as evidenced by the broad disdain for your flippant flirtation with the darkest of human fantasy - socialism. you and other neo-socialists have led so many of us to reflect on America’s history and what it is becoming. that now leads so many to consider, so unnecessarily, leaving their homes for a place where everyone stands up to shout down the principle you suggest. because if your ideas are now considered moderate, it’s clear this titanic is sinking.

that a “simple tax” of taking assets that have been earned, through toil and tribulation, rightly taxed, and preserved, should now be unjustly seized, is your solution to a problem of obvious government mismanagement and outright fraud, tells us that your true motivation lies not in giving people healthcare but in cutting down success and deleting the system of prosperity and opportunity for all.

i don’t care, and neither should anyone else, what the sum total market value of a private citizens private assets might be. it is none of my business and should be none of yours. because, again, once you open that pandora’s box, we might as well study Lord of the Flies … there is literally nothing stopping 51% of citizens demanding that their government go out and seize 100% of the private property of the 49%.

want to give healthcare to people in need? do your job and fix healthcare. make it affordable. want to be lazy about it? then do your job lazily and raise income taxes.

want to take private property from private citizens who have paid their fair share of taxes and legally earned their property, then honestly declare that it is envy, not inequity, that you strive to resolve…

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Remember this when you vote: lean toward the candidate (not the party) that defends individual liberty.

The smallest minority is the individual. Protect the individual, and you protect those who can’t protect themselves.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Democrats built the hammer Republicans are now bludgeoning democracy with.

Since 2020: Democrats abused FBI power to censor facts and debate (Twitter Files, Hunter Biden laptop) and went after whistleblowers.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Now Republicans swing the same hammer: pushing book bans, restricting speech, and gerrymandering to hold power.

The hammer was forged by one side, and is swung by the other.

[𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂 @TXMCtrades]

I've hesitated to post this all day but I'm going to now. Will probably lose me some followers but I have things to say and I've never been one to hold my tongue. I respect the exchange of ideas and a diversity of thought.

Political violence should be widely condemned by all and it's unfortunate that we are so eager to paint outcomes as a single faction's work. We do it every time, and so quickly. However the pendulum is forever swinging. It was just three months ago that two Minnesota lawmakers and their spouses were shot at their respective homes in the same night, two of them fatally (Melissa Hortman and husband), all Democrats. Some recall the 2017 Congressional baseball game shooting targeting Republicans. Infamous and awful. 2017 was also the Charlotte car ramming incident that killed 1 and injured 35 people protesting against the Unite The Right rally, mostly progressive victims. In 2018 César Sayoc pled guilty to 65 felony counts for mailing pipe bombs to various Democrats and Trump opponents. Last year we had the horrific attempt on President Trump's life at a rally that he amazingly survived. Another Trump rally that summer had a man arrested with guns and a fake passport. These are just the first things I thought of. This is not an exhaustive list and isn't meant to encapsulate all political strife in this country, before anyone lists more tragedies. Let us not compete. I only bring these up because in my view it's important not to allow single events to deepen our partisan trenches any more than they already are. I see a lot of folks suggesting all our violence emanates from one direction but history says otherwise. It is becoming too easy to dismiss whole swaths of our countrymen as violent lunatics when most people are good and decent and law abiding. Charlie Kirk's murder is an abysmal tragedy and we should seek the ultimate justice against his perpetrator. Just as those who carry out any heinous crimes should be punished. Think we can all agree on that last bit.

Memories are short. Emotions are sky high. People are enraged, and rightfully so. But we are not tearing apart at the seams solely because of the efforts of left or right. We're tearing apart, in my eyes, because the social contract has been destroyed and people increasingly feel they've lost any agency to improve their own lives and leave their children a better world. Our communities are fraying. The classic American dream is dead, replaced by a fevered race to try to gamble thine self into wealth or risk drowning in five figure net worth hell with zero prospects and no property of your own. This is a soul crushing fact we must face as a nation. As I said earlier today, the very fabric of civil society feels as though it's being pulled apart. And whomever is tugging the threads surely benefits from seeing us divided by ideologies rather than united in any capacity.

This is not a cry for any one party, I have no partisan allegiance. I think it's all a big cabal as I've said consistently for a long time. But I hate feeling as though we're allowing the republic to be ripped apart by an unidentifiable evil. Events are in motion that cannot be easily undone, and it is heartbreaking to think that the nation my son inherits will be worse than the one I knew. We are being tested and so far we are failing. I'm not sure what we're supposed to do, but unanswerable grief and dread appear to loom over us like a cloud, dark as obsidian on a breezeless night. My soul aches.

Social media is designed to divide us. It is working.

Know that you are loved.

Goodnight. ❤️

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@energy_cruncher Go to the “discovery islands” in BC, Canada and if you can’t get there… do the San Juan islands in Washington.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@seandsweeney We structure some deals as a C-Corp…

This protects investors bc there are strict tax laws on distributions from:

1. Current + Accumulated E&P (if no earnings or profits, then)
2. Return of Capital
3. Capital Gains

The tax code would treat this as a return of capital.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

The admin is stuck in the 80s… thinking that low prices are good for the US.

We are a major producing country now, and fuel costs as a % of consumer spending are much lower.

Higher oil prices are a net positive for the country. Keep production local.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@paulswaney3 The ETF BIL is a cash alt… +4% yield right now.

So cash arbitrage play, flexibility of liquidity while earning a premium.

In a recession yields should go down but bond should go up so litte risk of losing principle in 1-3 month T Bills. Can pay off mortgage at any time.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Hot take: gas station coffee is better than @Nespresso

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@BarryRoland19 @realEstateTrent Is there a reason that you don’t employ her through your business?

I’m assuming that you run any 1099 income through an S-Corp or LLC anyway

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

Reality check.

US Budget: 71% of spending on the untouchables

•Entitlements (46%)
•Interest on debt (13%)
•Military (12%)

The deficit? 27% of the budget.

But sure, let’s pin our hopes on the #DOGE program.

Spoiler: it’s a farce until the untouchables are touched.

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

This guy did it for fun, but what about those people that were up there building it?
Wild.

[Vertigo_Warrior @VertigoWarrior]

11. Sam Sunderland standing on top of the Burj Khalifa, Dubai

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@realEstateTrent I went to grad school and elevated my career / earning potential instead, which was the right call.

But, just looking at it from the avg. person perspective...

Not necessarily the same story

[Nick D'Onofrio @donof_]

@realEstateTrent Based on the last 10 years, this is wrong for most people.

Using this logic, I passed on buying a condo in 2014. Here is how it played out in real life.

Now the mortgage alone of purchasing the same place is almost $5k/m...
https://t.co/M3d9E5vArl

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Graph of the first nine harmonics and an x-ray of a conch shell's inner structure