dettonator

smarter than the average bear

[dettonator @doogletree33]

Plan your work & work your plan

[Tigerflow @tigerfl0w]

A hedge fund returned 50% a year for ten years straight. In 2005 the man who ran it sat on a desk at Columbia and taught the entire method to 30 students for free. No bank, no fund, no business school has ever promoted the recording.

His name is Joel Greenblatt. He ran Gotham Capital from 1985 to 1994. Almost nobody sustains 50% annually for a single year. He did it for ten. Then in 1995 he returned all outside capital, kept running his own money, and walked into a classroom.

The first lecture is about corners of the market where the usual buyers are structurally forced to sell regardless of price. Spinoffs, restructurings, situations where an index fund must dump a stock the day it leaves the index. He does not teach a screener or a formula. He teaches why these corners exist at all, and why they keep existing after everybody knows about them.

The uncomfortable part is what he says about diversification. He held very few positions. It runs directly against everything the business school teaches two floors down. Columbia charges $80K a year in tuition. The man upstairs gave away the method for free.

Every screener is free now. Every filing is searchable. The constraint was never information. It was knowing which information to ignore.

Filmed from the back row, audio uneven, students blocking the frame. He gave away 50% a year to a room of 30 people. Almost nobody traded on it.

One classroom. One camera. The full lecture is free. It is in the video.

[dettonator @doogletree33]

@SoberLook 🙏🏼

Thanks for all of the help over the years.

[dettonator @doogletree33]

Roll burg!!!

[Lacrosse Betting Picks @PicksLacrosse]

NCAA Lacrosse Computer Rankings - Quarterfinal Edition -

[Rick Golfs @Top100Rick]

What’s it like for a normal hack golfer to play Augusta National?

2 years ago I got the unbelievable honor of playing the home of the Masters with a member. I still pinch myself.

So what did I shoot?

Let me take you on a hole by hole journey from the member tees:

[Peter Boockvar @pboockvar]

Yes, gold is an outstanding inflation hedge.

In 1970, right before Nixon took us off what was left of the post WWII Bretton Woods gold standard, $1 bought you about 3 gallons of gasoline. Today, that same $1 will buy one about 27% of a gallon of gasoline. In 1970 when gold was price fixed at $35 per ounce, it bought you about 100 gallons of gasoline. Today at around $2,350 per ounce, it buys you about 650 gallons of gasoline. Pretty good protection against inflation.

Let's do this since 2000 when Greenspan was on the cusp of an unprecedented rate cutting experiment at the time which spurred gold after a 20 yr bear market. One dollar bought you about 2/3 of a gallon of gas while one ounce of gold bought you about 167 gallons. Today, as mentioned $1 will buy you about 27% of a gallon while gold will buy you 650 gallons.

I read that in 1970 the average price of a private year college was $1,562. According to US News and World Report it was $42,162 for the 2023-2024 school year. That's up 27x. Gold is up 67x since then while the US dollar has lost 96% of its purchasing power. Pretty good protection against inflation.

Let's take the CPI in totality. Since 1970, again right before we went to an all fiat financial system, it is up 7.9 times. Since 1970, gold is up 67 times. Is gold not an inflation hedge? Of course it is. There are times where it might lag but over almost 55 years since the 1971 monetary system changed, it's done a pretty good job.

[Cookie Monster @MeCookieMonster]

Have you om nom nom nomed today?

[dettonator @doogletree33]

And although their earnings have masked that catch-up to the fed and market expectations, it doesn’t really act as a tide. Plus, fear is growing that come the March meeting we will see another change in that dot plot…notice the 2s/10s steepening with the long of the curve rising

[dettonator @doogletree33]

Another day where small caps outperform and It is interesting to see this occur around risk events. Following CPI small caps were quick to capture some momentum, again ahead of this key data week we are seeing small-cap / short basket leadership.

[dettonator @doogletree33]

So while this paints some optimism for the rest of the market, the strength and speed of the 7,5,or 1 big name(s) making diversifying beta quite challenging (an interesting thought with Uber in DJ transports).

[dettonator @doogletree33]

thereby tightening financial conditions (discretionary under pressure) which could be seen if the June 50bps changes to 25 (Fed speak will guide). Again, new price discovery will continue either way

[dettonator @doogletree33]

To the tune of “Gimme Shelter”: Ooh, Inflations threatening, my stocks today. If we don’t consider shelter, ooh yeah it’s gonna fade away. Growth, Mag7, It’s just a cut away, it’s just a cut away.

[dettonator @doogletree33]

So if we extrapolate the simple causes of inflation (ignoring the government spending impact that too led that GDP) knowing early cycle economies are akin with inflation, the fear now may be that a bear steepener is next, (see real rates, Gold today)….

[dettonator @doogletree33]

And being data dependent means the focus on future data points is key and although we’ve had quite a few months of on target inflation prints, this just reiterates the Fed’s stance, which isn’t a good thing…see flatter curve.

[dettonator @doogletree33]

-1DVIX spikes late ahead of CPI (super bowl hangover)
-Flatter curve / higher break evens looking for a stickier inflation scenario
-1yr fwd P/E hits the 20x top (prior ‘21 peak, 20 high before Covid, tech bubble)
-EPS momentum to stall out - back to the macro & more vol ahead

[Kraken Canada 🍁 @KrakenCanada]

The only video of Adam Johnson that should be circulating the internet. His first NHL goal.

RIP.