Merry Christmas Bitcoiners 🎄
Thank you @saifedean for the best orange pill out there.
I am gifting my parents a copy of TBS this year ⚡️
#Bitcoin#TheBitcoinStandard
Gold is ripping.
Bitcoin’s slipping.
This is becoming the story of 2025 — the world’s oldest store of value breaking out while the hardest money ever invented can’t catch a bid.
But what if that’s the plan? 🧵👇
Here's my recent talk at Sui Basecamp in Dubai—Enjoy!
00:00 - PALvatar introduces the episode
01:04 - Reframing the macro fear narrative
01:26 - The Everything Code and liquidity
01:51 - Debt cycles and macro structure
02:10 - Demographics, debt, and GDP
02:38 - Aging populations and GDP drag
03:00 - Liquidity as the real driver
03:25 - Fed balance sheet to total liquidity
03:50 - M2 and asset correlations
04:23 - Why the rich get richer
04:47 - Global tax via currency debasement
05:21 - Crypto as a generational opportunity
05:48 - Banana zones and BTC decoupling
06:13 - Bitcoin log regression and upside
06:37 - 850K $BTC and market cycles
06:56 - Debasement and asset returns
07:19 - Liquidity vs. traditional returns
07:48 - Why tech and crypto matter
08:10 - Bitcoin vs Nasdaq performance
08:38 - Crypto: best asset in history
09:03 - The "Don’t F*ck This Up" thesis
09:38 - Liquidity and the macro setup
09:58 - Volatility is the price for returns
10:31 - Tariffs, rates, and market lag
11:01 - Economic surprises and liquidity
11:37 - 2017 tariffs and liquidity boost
12:01 - Twitter narratives vs macro truth
12:24 - What assets lead market cycles
12:51 - Inventory buildup and Q1 GDP
13:12 - Philly Fed confirms thesis
13:31 - ISM and forward outlook
14:00 - #Bitcoin and DeMark analysis
14:21 - Trump cycle deja vu
14:38 - My Bitcoin trading mistake
14:57 - Dollar strength and the Trump pivot
15:16 - Why the dollar isn’t over
15:36 - A weak dollar lifts global growth
15:56 - The 2017 breakout comparison
16:18 - One of the best setups ever
16:40 - Global M2 and debt cycle
17:03 - Basel IV and monetary creation
17:25 - Liquidity cycles repeat
17:45 - Debt refi cycles and patterns
18:06 - Liquidity leads Bitcoin
18:29 - Banana Zone phases
18:50 - Global M2 vs BTC chart
19:09 - Breakouts and corrections
19:29 - The voodoo chart: M2 + BTC
19:50 - One-way street ahead
20:08 - China, the dollar, and liquidity
20:31 - Central banks printing
20:50 - Liquidity surge from all angles
21:14 - Correlation with BTC and Nasdaq
21:39 - The Everything Code plays out
22:03 - Business cycle and crypto
22:32 - Bitcoin and ISM outlook
22:54 - Bitcoin at 450K?
23:21 - Altseason and business cycle
23:48 - Earnings, spending, and risk
24:16 - Altcoins = risk curve
24:40 - ISM >50 = big signal
25:06 - Everyone's fearful at the bottom
25:35 - Bearish sentiment at extremes
26:03 - Institutions still not in
26:29 - Indicators signal reversals
26:56 - Bitcoin corrections are normal
27:18 - The 2017 rollercoaster
27:42 - Technicals: #Solana & $SUI
28:00 - @SuiNetwork charts breaking out
28:28 - Sui vs $SOL: faster horse
28:50 - $DEEP: top performer
29:16 - Ecosystem growth & excitement
29:45 - Market reacting to the vision
30:07 - Follow liquidity, not noise
30:27 - RSI and breakouts
30:47 - Liquidity patterns repeat
31:13 - We are in the Banana Zone
31:30 - No cycle top in sight
31:56 - This is just the beginning
32:19 - Banana Zone map
32:44 - Final advice: don’t mess this up
33:08 - Cycle could run into Q2 2026
33:39 - Stick to the program and DFTU
I don’t normally speculate on short-term #Bitcoin price action — but some friends of mine have provided some fascinating perspectives that I want to share.🧵 👇
Bitcoin is up 25% from its April 9th low and there’s a handful of indicators that show a major bull market around the corner. Starting with the Average Miner Cost of Production.
In a rational economy, assets rarely trade below their cost of production. Now, what it costs to “mine” a Bitcoin is different for every miner – machine type, electricity cost, and uptime all play a role — but the analysts @BlockwareTeam have aggregated data to create a metric called the “industry average”.
This metric has timed each of the past 6 Bitcoin bottoms:
September 2024
November 2022
September 2020
March 2020
December 2018
April 2016
This metric is signaling a bottom right now.
The path to mainstream:
Bitcoin has 300K DAUs
Solana has 3 Million DAUs
X has 150 Million DAUs
Instagram has 500 Million DAUs
TikTok has 1 Billion DAUs
Facebook has 2 Billion DAUs
It's very clear were this is going.
Solana will get to 100 Million DAUs.
I bet Solana gets there by 2030.
And then we get to 1 Billion DAUs.
This stuff never stops.
As has been the character of this Bitcoin bull market, the next leg up is likely to be violent and unforgiving to those second guessing.
Be positioned and sit back.
Bitcoin is portable wealth,
You can "opt out" of any Government, and instantly take your net worth somewhere else.
You can't do it with real estate. Takes time to sell.
Stocks are faster, but moving large sums via banks doesn't work.
Imagine you move to Iceland. You open a bank account and try wiring 10 million in from a US account. Likely outcome: you will be flagged as a money launderer / criminal and the money will be blocked.
Try moving 10 million in gold. That's 240 pounds. Not exactly inconspicuous.
Bitcoin doesn't need to transfer. You can just use it, wherever you want.
That's something completely new. Something that has never existed before. One of the reasons why it will dominate all other assets.
Portable wealth. Think about it.