𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@JustinRayGolf 🙏

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@danprimack https://t.co/lswyYTRRbq

[Ed Elson @edels0n]

My initial S-1 thoughts:

As I expected, Anthropic is still firmly unprofitable. But, to their credit, they've significantly reduced compute costs as a % of revenue, leading to much narrower losses. On first look, there is a plausible and imminent path to profitability. This is impressive.

However, the meat of the document begins at page 161, under "liquidity and capital resources." There, we learn where the true compute costs have been hiding: future compute purchase agreements.

As of June 30, Anthropic has signed roughly $587 billion in compute leases and minimum purchase commitments that haven't begun. It has since signed $245 billion more, resulting in more than $800B in future compute costs. None of these costs have made their way onto the income statement yet. But they will, and when they do, the profitability picture will look completely different.

Anthropic acknowledges how precarious these agreements are. They point out that their compute providers (on whom they also rely for financial support) also sell services that "compete with ours." As a result, these providers/competitors may eventually force them into onerous agreements. This is something I've expressed concerns about for a while, and it's nice to see Anthropic openly recognize it.

That's why Anthropic admitted their most significant strategic decision: They're about to initiate "substantial capital expenditures." So far, they've spent zero. Why the change? Because they know they can no longer rely on leasing compute, "the magnitude and timing" of which are "inherently uncertain." So, they're going to build their own compute, which will, in their words, "change the cash flow profile of our business." I.e. make it severely negative.

It's possible that this is why they want to go public now. Since these costs have not yet "come online," they can be left as footnotes at the bottom of the document. But very soon, that won't be possible.

In sum, Anthropic's income statement is not telling you the full picture. To the company's credit, they spared us the accounting gymnastics of stripping out training costs in their non-GAAP adjustments. That would have been offensive. Still, the most important numbers aren't getting the requisite attention.

I encourage you to start at page 161 for a more complete understanding of what's going on.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@afalk @Scobleizer Discussion of instinct terms of service at All In podcast E288.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@afalk @Scobleizer Me too.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@kaufer @samanthajgross Was our rep in Marblehead. Great guy.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@kendallbaker geosports · august 25th1,000 / 1,000🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@kendallbaker Love GeoSports! Lot of work I know but would love to see an easy mode and a hard mode.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@kendallbaker Nah. B is the correct answer because it includes Scottsdale, AZ. No earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes, forest fires. Lots of golf, sunshine and friendly people.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@kendallbaker Rahm’s agents/lawyers committed malpractice if they didn’t get that contract guaranteed somehow.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

Shoutout to @MKBHD for his cameo in Walter Isaacson’s tome on Elon.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

also: “…are about as welcome as a free press in Pyongyang.”

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

My favorite sports writer these days, reminiscent of the great Jim Murray and Rick Reilly. “For his team, it was yet another opportunity to demonstrate that they have all the utility of an octogenarian in a whorehouse.”

[Eamon Lynch @eamonlynch]

Bryson DeChambeau’s tantrum at The Open didn’t damage his reputation. It solidified it https://t.co/X7cmGmM0J4 via @golfweek

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

Sign the petition: Petition for a Citizens’ Constitutional Convention https://t.co/c9bSMlo6oI

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@markgurman @ShamsCharania Followed you for the great coverage of Apple. Unfollowing for the unending complaints (not doubt warranted) about RP. Sad to go.

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@Pogue Gotcha. But I would argue that some design flaws are so egregious that they qualify as bugs!

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@gruber Where do you start? :)

[David Pogue @Pogue]

For an upcoming “Pogue’s Posts” column: What are some broken elements in macOS or iOS? Not just "here's what I'd do differently," but bugs or clearly, demonstrably counterintuitive design? Thank you!

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@afalk You’re right, compass direction. Very cool, thanks!

[𝔻𝕠𝕦𝕘 ℝ𝕖𝕕𝕕𝕚𝕟𝕘 @dougredding]

@afalk Don’t know if this is possible but I suspect so. I’d be curious to see at what latitude the moon rises and sets each day. Seems random from my observations but I’m sure that’s not the case.